The road to Donetsk, Poznan and other places

Zlatan on the bench against Finland tonight.  How do we interpret that? Just that he is out of match form and hence not ready for 90 minutes.  And don't expect him to play unless we have to.  Disappointing for the ticket holders but they get summer weather and should not complain.

We should beat Finland and the 11 that started the second half against Moldova should be able to do it.

So not many comments to make.

But I can give you the predictions for the qualification campaign this autumn if you would like.

Such as the 16 teams that will participate in Euro 2012, in alphabetical order:

Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine.

How do I get there? Afraid that's a longer story but sure, here we go:

Two teams are qualified as hosts, Poland and Ukraine.

Four teams are cruising through their groups and can already book their tickets; Spain, Germany, Holland and Italy.

The other five prospective group winners need to fight for their place, but I think the following teams will make it:

• England have screwed up a few times already and could screw up a few times more, but if they get their act together away against Montenegro that's pretty much all they need to do. And currently Enlgand appear to be stronger away from home
• France managed to get one point out of two encounters with Belarus.  A super power still on the decline, but with a helpful draw.  They really should qualify
• Portugal initially struggled in their Nordic group but seem to have found the necessary momentum and probably a draw against Denmark is all they need on the last day.  An interesting group where three games between three teams on equal points will be decisive.  Denmark-Norway and Denmark-Portugal.
• Croatia are not in the driving seat in their group and were minutes away from losing important points to Georgia this weekend.  But I think they will draw Greece away, and I believe Greece will draw at least once more (away to Israel or away to Georgia).  But this is a tough group.
• Russia, finally, are favourites in their three-horse battle with Slovakia and Ireland.  Again, all three teams are even but if Russia can manage a draw away to Slovakia and a win at home to Ireland that should suffice.

Then we have one more directly qualified, the best number two.

Looking at all groups, and the games played and the games to be played, the teams that can get the best results are:

• Sweden, could be second with only 3 points lost
• Turkey, 5 points (if Azerbijan finishes last and thus Turkey's loss against them is discounted, otherwise 8 points)
• Norway or Portugal, 5 points (but I think Portugal will win the group and Norway finish third). I predict Denmark to finnish second, and to do that they need to drop at least 7 points
• England/Montenegro, 6 points
• Czech Republic, 6 points
• Slovakia/Russia/Ireland, 7 points
• Greece/Croatia, 7 points
• France/Bosnia, 8 points
• Northern Ireland, 9 points

But here is a more likely scenario, I think

• Sweden, losing 7 points by drawing at home to Holland and away to Turkey, but winning two games against Finland and (discounting the San Marino games) with a goal difference of +6.
• Denmark, beating Norway at home and drawing Portugal at hoe, also dropping 7 points but with only 3 or 4 plus goals
• Greece, drawing two more games and losing 8 points
• Ireland, dropping 8 points after losing to Russia away but beating Slovakia at home
• Czech Republic, dropping 10-11 points in total after games against Scotland away and Spain at home
• Switzerland, catching up with Montenegro by winning all remaining games including the last game of the group against Montenegro and beating them and encounters between the two, dropping 10 points
• Turkey, dropping 12 points (trusting Azerbaijan to beat Kazakhstan in the first game between them that may trigger European wide interest)
• Serbia, dropping 14 points and just beating Northern Ireland and Slovenia
• Romania or Bosnia in the everyone-beats-everyone group, dropping 14 or so points

Fact remains, Sweden are favourites to go through as best number two and the extra goals we scored against Moldova were most helpful to the cause.

The other number twos will enter a play-off against each other, with the four best teams according to the FIFA ranking seeded.  That means, today:

Seeded
Denmark (or Portugal or Norway)
Greece (or Croatia)
Switzerland (or Montenegro or England)
Serbia (or Slovenia)

Unseeded
Ireland
Czech Republic (or Scotland)
Turkey (or Belgium, or Austria)
Romania (or Bosnia, Belarus or Romania)

The draws will decide but the seeded teams are more likely to qualify, it seems.  Serbia-Bosnia and Greece-Turkey sound like interesting draws.

If Sweden ends up being number 2 but not the best number 2, we are likely to be seeded (as last team) but a lot could change that:

• A team that would be unseeded (such as Turkey) qualifies as best number 2
• France finishes second in their group
• Russia or Slovakia finish second in their group (and Slovakia stays ahead of Sweden in the ranking)

On the other hand, helpful things such as (Northern Ireland or Israel finishing second) could swing things back.

So, a lot of differet scenarios but if you support Sweden here are some other games where you clearly should route for one team over the other:

• Israel-Greece (2 September) and Croatia-Israel (6 September): Cheer for the sons of Israel
• Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan 6 September: cheer for the Azerbaijans against the Caspian rivals from the glorious nation of Kazakhstan.  Actually, cheer for Azerbaijan in all their games
• Austria-Turkey, 6 September: Cheer for Austria
• Cheer for whomever is playing Montenegro, at least for the moment (will keep you posted)
• Cheer for whomever is playing the Czech Republic, in particular Scotland on 3 September and Spain on 7 October
• Cheer for whomever is playing Denmark or Norway.  Should not be a problem.

But first, let's go beat them Finns.