Wednesday 28 December 2011

Title games 2012

Although Barclay's Premier League will squeeze in another round of football before the end of the year, it is fair to say we have a very clear trend in the four biggest football leagues: the top is tighter than usual, but in the end it seems as if we will end up with four two-horse races between old rivals.  Could be worse.  So note down the following dates in your calendars, it is not a wild guess that whoever wins these games will win the league titles:

26 Feb: Milan-Juventus

Current standing:
1. Milan 34 points
2. Juve 34 points
3. Udinese 32 points

Autumn result: Juve-Milan 2-0.

Other title challengers: Hardly. Udinese and Lazio do not possess the squads to last a whole season, Inter and Roma are too far back and with tough schedules. Napoli have put focus on Champions League.

Comment: Juve under Conte are still unbeaten, they can spend the spring concentrating on the league and the game against Milan is the only away game against a top team: Juve plays at home against Udinese, Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Roma in the spring.  On the other hand, Milan like an old train have finally starting to roll fast, score a lot of goals and have the Championship guarantee player Ibrahimovic.  Although many game days will remain after this tie, the winner will be the big title favourite.

11 April: Dortmund-Bayern
Current standing:
1. Bayern 37 points
2. Dortmund 34 points
3. Schalke 34 points

Autumn result: Bayern-Dortmund 0-1

Other title challengers: Schalke cannot be ruled out.  They are in it, and they play Dortmund at home just three days after this clash.  But still - I am pretty sure Bayern and Dortmund will have ran away from Schalke before that.

Comment: Bayern had a match point in the November clash, but blew it.  They may well have another one in April.

22 April: Barcelona-Real Madrid
Current standing:
1. Real Madrid 40 points
2. Barcelona 37 points
3. Sevilla 33 points

Autumn result: Real-Madrid-Barcelona 1-3

Other title challengers: yeah, right.

Comment: Always the decider? The big two have perhaps been a little little less dominant so far (Manchester City, Manchester United and Real have the exact same average points per game). Barcelona look like the team that will not get away with a draw this time, but they have a big big clasico upper hand.

28 April: Manchester City-Manchester United
Current standing:
1. Manchester City 45
2. Manchester United 45
3. Spurs 38 (with a game in hand)

Autumn result: United-City 1-6

Other title challengers: Spurs are closest. Spurs will not win.

Comment: After this game, only two league games remain.  This has the potential to be the biggest Manchester derby of all times, and the 1-6 shocker from October, or Rooney over-head kicking away City's titles dreams 2010/2011 do not make it worse.  Despite injuries, United show the best form and will need to gain an advantage during the Christmas period - they are looking at a very tough schedule 2012 with away games against Newclaste, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (and a home game against Liverpool) between 4 January and 3 March.  But United is United.  City are looking more vulnerable now than earlier in the season, the goals do not come as easy, and are despite the strong squad very dependent on a few players (Hart, Kompany, Silva).

Friday 16 December 2011

More balls on fire

If the Champions League draw was comparatively dull, the Europa League draw was not.  The first two draws drawn out of the hat were Porto-Man City and Ajax-United.  The four biggest losers from the Champions League group stage clashing against each other straight away.

And on top of that, Porto or City will likely play Sporting ín the next round.

5 out of 8 English teams survived the group stage if you include the Manchester teams demoted to Europa League.  Not a great result, but what next:
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Porto-City
Ajax-United
Stoke-Valencia

Wow. Hard to make up a tougher draw.

Other big games to look forward to are
Lazio-Atlectico
AZ-Anderlecht
A possible Liege-Brugge tie in the next round

Great Balls of Fire Part whatever

Quick and dirty on the Champions League draw:

Lyon-APOEL
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Basel-Bayern München
Leverkusen-Barcelona
CSKA-Real
Zenit-Benfica
Marseille-Inter
Not one single draw that makes you lose your breath.  Someone might have forgotten to heat up the balls.  But 2xItaly against England sticks out. I think the English are more unhappy than the Italians over that, actually.

Pretty sure Leverkusen are kicking themselves for letting the group win slip.  The three title favourites Bayern, Barca and Real are the only obvious quarter finalists, all other games remain open.

The two French sides that were almost out of the group stage now have decent chances of reaching the quarterfinal.

Now Europa League.

Cobi Span

To my American followers: what can you tell me about Cobi Span? He is about to board a flight to Sweden.