Thursday 31 March 2011

Is there life after Maldini?

Jersey number 3 is sitting there, somewhere, at Milanello.  It has been reserved to the Maldini family forever.  Of the two sons, the oldest Christian has always taking his responsibility.  He is a defender playing for Milan's youth team of boys born in 1996. Younger brother Daniel is playing as a striker with the 2001 squad.  We have been aware of his talent for a while (Eli, I give you two years to practice), but it is too early to tell what it will lead to.  The third Maldini is my cat.  He showed potential early on, but he is a whining so much that I should rename him Totti.

So we're left with young Christian for now.  I may be viewed as putting too much pressure on a 14-year old but we put our trust in the Maldinis like the yellow hat buddhists put their trust in Dhalai Lama.  And his development is becoming slightly worrying. 

Christian has been playing for successful Milan teams with very tight defenses since he was very young.  It all looked very promising.  But now Christian is at an age where he should soon be ready for the A squad, let alone the Primavera.  He will have reached the age when his dad made his Serie A debut on 8 January 2013. The youth national team should come knocking at the door.  They are, and they are asking for Cristian but Cristian without an h after the c.  Who that?

I am still to figure out whether Cristian Galliani is a relative of Adriano, can anyone help me out? Is it the offspring of Uncle Fester that is really the next one?

Orlando furioso

So Malmö FF has announced that coach Roland Nilsson will not extend his contract beyond the 2011 season.  Both the club and Roland are very clear that he will not coach the club in 2012. That is all very well.  But the question is what this announcement means in relation to the speculation that Roland will take over FC Copenhagen (FCK) already this summer?

The background is the following:

FCK's Norwegian coach Solbakken has agreed to take over the coaching of Norway's national team, either in January 2012 or after the Euro 2012, should Norway qualify.

FCK appears to be keen to find his replacement early on.  The Danish season, unlike the Swedish one, goes autumn-spring. There is a long winter break but the Danes are now a club with serious Champions League ambitions.  So they do not want to be forced to change horses (or jockeys, rather) at half time.

As replacement, Roland Nilsson has been earmarked by FCK. But if he is to take over already this summer, he needs to be bought out of his current contract and he would need to leave Malmö mid-season (there is no summer break this year) and just about when the club will enter into Champions League qualification.

The reason why I write about this here is out of fear.  There is speculation that Malmö will go after Sixten Boström to replace Nilsson.  For us to lose Boström mid-season is probably even worse than for Malmö to lose Nilsson (when Boström is thinking how Haddad should move in order for the Örebro midfield to win the ball back higher in the pitch, Nilsson is thinking of big boobs).  But is my fear justified?

I hope not. I even think not.  I believe the reason Malmö made the announcement is to secure a replacement early on.  This replacement should ideally be available to start the handover early on, so that he can take over a going concern midseason, should Nilsson be bought out.  That means Malmö has someone in mind that is more flexible than Boström.  That person must reasonably be another bronze hero of 1994, namely Jonas Thern.  I expect him to be contracted by Malmö in some non-head coach role within the next few days.

So, you can exhale now.  Sixten will stay with us for the rest of the year. Then he may well leave, and is likely to bring assistant Mosander with him.  We have all reasons in the world to start looking for replacements.

Wednesday 30 March 2011

The most important derby ever

We say that quite often (but not as often as the Spaniards say that about El Clasico).

Quite often you can make a case for it.  Either because one or both teams have had a bad season and see the derby as a season saver, or because something bigger is also at stake. This time it is no doubt the latter. Clearly lo scudetto will stay in Milan and the question whether it will be blue or red that accompagnies the black is very much depdendent on Saturday night's game. The title has not been fought out between the two since the 1992/93 season, when both derbys ended in draws and Milan won the title four points clear of Inter. That meant Milan levelled the total tally of scudetti to 13 each.  If Milan win this season, they would level again to 18 each.  So "ever" is really since 1993. Or the Champions League encounters in 2003 and 2005.  Or the face-savers in 2001.  Have your pick.  It is a bloody important game.

I'm sure you can read in many places that this game always ends up with a draw. But it doesn't. Of the last 14 derbys, Milan have won 7, Inter 7. So likely there will be a winner and that winner will be the title favourite.  If there is a draw, Milan will have the upper hand but given recent form, I would say Inter will be a slight favourite.

So what speaks for and against the two?

Milan have many reasons to be worry. Ibrahimovic is banned.  Even though with his recent form that may not be a disadvantage, the reason why Milan are where they are is very much thanks to him.  The midfield is still plagued by injuries, Pirlo may be back on the bench but will not start and Ambrosini is still out. Milan's sad set of fullbacks hae also had another setback with the injury of Jankulovski.

On the plus side, Milan have an in-form, solid pair of central defenders, Tiago Silva is the best player of the team for the moment and Nesta is back in match form. Those two in front of Abbiate is Milan's strength.  Up front, Pato has been prolific and let's hope he stays that way even though he will hear a lot, I mean a lot, from the Inter supporters on his love affair with the president's daughter.  But neither Pato nor Robinho are the cool, cynical players you need in a derby.  And Cassano on the bench, oh well.

What speaks for Milan is really what speaks against Inter.  Leonardo when at Milan was a lousy lousy coach in the big games.  Faced against Ferguson and Mourinho last season he was so clearly outbrained that it was truly embarassing.  I hope there is a bit of that still in him, Inter survived against Bayern but no one can claimed they did it through clever play. And we know where his heart is.

What speaks for Inter is really two the class of Eto'o and the class of Sneijder.  And that can take them quite a long way. My prediction is that those two will decide the game. 

I think we will lose the Madonnia, 1-2 or 2-3, and then the scudetto. And I usually bet with my heart (see previous posts). With Midwest parental control switched on: Dang.

We don't fly but we may qualify

So. We lived through another unexciting performance from Sweden. If the option is between unexciting and disappointing, as it currently seems to be, I guess this was just about what we could wish for.  The inability of the Swedish
  • defence not to make us nervous (too many free kicks conceded, too many uncontrolled passes from Antonsson who should never again play for Sweden I hope)
  • midfield not to control the ball when the Moldovans increased the pressure (it will take not just one but a couple of injuries or suspensions before we see Wernbloom in the starting line-up again; Elm improved things when he came on, good to see)
  • attack not to finish better (Zlatan's missed penalty was dreadful, Elmander ran but that was also all that he did)
do not bide well for the future qualification campaign.

But, still, other teams are doing what they should to help Sweden qualify.  We should finish second in this weak group, we really should, and we actually have a good chance of qualifying directly as the best runner up of all groups.

With the reservation that no one knows what will happen to Bosnia and hence the entire Group D, this is what seems to be going on:

Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups.  We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already.

England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done.

Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight.

As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two.  Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted.  The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia.

Tuesday 29 March 2011

Yes we can - Allsvenskan predictions for 2011

A couple of weeks ago, Örebro SK announced the target for the year. Top 3. I would have formulated it as follows.  "Örebro SK should challenge for the championship title by claiming more than 60 points.  It should challenge for the cup title and at least progress to the third round of the Europa League qualififyers". That's how good we are and we should settle for nothing less.

This is the introduction for my Allsvenskan predictions for 2011.  I usually do not overestimate Örebro, at least not by much.  And I have never ever predicted them in the position where I predict them this year.

For those of you who aren't too familiar with the beloved allsvenskan, you should know that this is a tight championship and inherently difficult to predict.  There are a few rules though:
  • After 7 rounds all newspapes will claim that this year's edition is "tighter than ever"
  • The champions will not defend the title
  • Everyone will fear the summer transfer window but in reality it is rarely decisive

Allsvenskan

Top 5 - the title challengers

1 Örebro SK – I have weighed the squad of the five teams that could win it, and this is what I get to.  Örebro have the best squad.  I feel lightheaded, but if I need to pick a winner I will go with Örebro.  The caveat is really the summer transfer season, but I just told you it is rarely decisive.  My prediction is based on us losing no more than one player over summer, and that we get paid well for him so that we can go for an immediate replacement.  Bedoya looks the most likely to go, but Almebäck’s displays with the national team could trigger the attention of for example the top teams of the Dutch League.  If we lose both, we will feel shakier but my feeling is the club management knows what it’s doing.

2 Malmö FF – Last time Malmö won they became the favourites for a few consecutive years, and failed every time.  What will happen this time? A strong squad but a loss-making club.  How will the youngsters cope with Champions League qualifiers? They will be up there for sure, but they will lose more points then last year now that the focus gets divided.  And the uncertainty of coach Roland Nilsson (expected to take over FC Copenhagen this summer) and the economy (money in the bank still but very red figures in the books) does not help.  Daniel Andersson cannot carry the whole team on his shoulders.  On top of that, big question mark for Yago in central defense.  And big vulnerability to summer transfers too, in particular Larsson and Molins seem likely to go.

3 Elfsborg – Have become a regular in the top 4 but given the strength of the squad, that is an underachievement.  Don’t see them improving over 2010, although player by player they have a team that should have one every title the last 4-5 years.  But why would it happen this year, when the team has become weaker? Avdic was great last year, and is replaced by two bench players of doubtful quality.  Elm was never a top player even in Kalmar.  Why has he become a star because of an utterly failed spell at Fulham?

4 IFK Göteborg – In my view a bigger under-achiever than AIK last year.  Let’s see if they can avoid a raft of injuries this year.  If they do, there is enough talent in the squad.

5 Helsingborg – A team that wins most games by one goal can soon start losing them by one if they lose their backbone.  Ask AIK.  Will be vulnerable in central midfield without Lantz.  Ekstrand’s replacement in central defence (Peter Larsson) is only there on loan until the summer, and surely Gerndt and probably Jönsson will disappear as well (you see, I keep on doing that mistake of overestimating the importance of the summer transfer window). 

No man's land

6 Kalmar – one of the toughest to place this year, a little bit like Helsingborg last season.  The squad does not long strong, but coach Nanne does.

7 AIK – Had a terrible 2010 and can only do better this year.  Bangura I filled one gap last autumn, and will be the most important player also this year.  Bangura II feels overhyped, and the remaining gaps compared to the 2009 winning squad are too many for AIK to really challenge.  But less pressure and a better squad than last year secures a position on the top half of the table.

8 Mjällby – Hard to tell what will happen when El Kabir leaves, as he will this summer.  Looks like they will end up around here, the squad is still too strong to get involved in the relegation battle.

9 Djurgården – For a while there, last year, Djurgården started to play good football again.  That was much thanks to Thouma who is now gone and Sjölund, who is the only remaining class player.  A good target for the year would be to beat rivals AIK.  I think they will fail, though.  Sad to see a team that had so much strength in the first half of the 2000s have such a weak squad.  Good Riddez!

10 Trelleborg – Absolutely magnificent autumn last year.  Coach Prahl gives the club super powers they should not have.  Enough to steer them clear but not to challenge for a top spot yet again.  Drugge will be missed.

11 Syrianska Clever reinforcement of the squad.  They now have the experience their local rivals Assyriska did not have when they tried.  Syrianska will stay up thanks to a good, experienced midfield.

The relegation battle

12 Häcken – A strong pre-season means nothing.  We have seen this before.  Häcken will struggle this year.

13 Halmstad – How does a team with absolutely no money sign a bunch of “Real Madrid players”.  The Spanish theme does not seem serious although they may surprise from time to time.  But overall HBK is on the wrong track and need a time out.  Relegation would do them well but I think they will stay up.  Just.

14 Norrköping – Good ol’ Peking is back, and as always they dream of being something they are not.  Trusting Ajdarevic to be the star does not bide well.  Thorvaldson does not feel very fresh. 

15 Gais – Alvaro Santos’ greatness are many years and kilos away. Wanderson? Not sure he will come and if he does, his spell will be too short to make a real impact.  Bassombeng? Has the potential.  Florén? A clever loan.  But this is not good enough.

16 Gefle – Stayed up because two teams were even worse last year.  Not the case this year.  Orlov will be gone by summer if he continues to deliver, and I hope Lantto gets a better club as well.  He deserves it.  For the record, I’m not one of those that predict Gefle to go down every year.  But this year they will – what can I do?

Thursday 24 March 2011

A whiter shade of pale

Örebro SK's 3-0 victory is not much to brag about, Djurgården is not a top team and when they had som many players missing we should run them over like we did.

But most of the discussions after the game appear to focus on the new neon light ad boards. These turned out to be the white equivalent of Kenny Roaster.

Now, as you know our coach is a Finn and as you also know the Finns are probably the most pale people in the world. So when poor Sixten was facing the big bright white light yesterday, he almost disappeared. There is a fine line between ghosts and our eastern neighbours.

Wednesday 23 March 2011

6-10's 11

Pre-season friendlies are what they are.  We have suffered through winter months with freezing temperatures (not like I've been there in person, we in this respect is the club as a whole), empty stands and more than anything weird and ever-changing line-ups.  But when you see the squad for tonight's friendly against Djurgården, the last before it all starts, you can feel that we are almost there.  A couple of injuries on bench players Haginge and Johansson (both former Djurgården players) and Astvald is playing with the U 21 national team, otherwise this is it.  I'm sure you are all as excited as I am.  Confirmed squad for tonight:

John Alvbåge
- - - - - - - - - -
Patrik Anttonen
Michael Almebäck
Magnus Wikström (K)
Samuel Wowoah
- - - - - - - - - -
Alejandro Bedoya
Magnus Kihlberg
Nordin Gerzic
- - - - - - - - - -
Valdet Rama
Andreas Haddad
Kushtrim Lushtaku

Bench:
Simon Nurme (Mv)
Tommy Wirtanen
Fredrik Nordback
Erik Nilsson
Emil Berger
Ahmed Yasin
William Atashkadeh

Da Squad - Part IV

Alright, this will be real quick.  I have already presented the new players and amongst the strikers, there are a lot of new faces.  Marcus Astvald is really the only striker still around, as Staaf and Leonidsson are pretty far away from the starting line-up.

So.

Right winger:
First choice: Astvald.  Back in the Under 21 national team.  Astvald is continuity, he is a local and I he is in match shape.  For sure he should be a starter, at least in the beginning of the season.  I would like to see Astvald get into the box more often this season, and I would like his crosses into the box to be a tad lower.  He found Larsen with his crosses quite often but failed to find Paulinho.  Now there is a new and more movable target.

Second (actually third) choice: I will deal with Rama and Lushtaku to the left.  Although Two out of the trio Astvald/Rama/Lushtaku should normally play (Rama being the most flexible as to ability to play left and right) I will go for Ahmed Yasin here.

Centre forward:
Easy here.  First choice is Haddad, Atashkadeh looks really interesting though and I think we would play Rama here before Staaf would get a real chance.

Left forward:
So here it is all new.  Rama is the first choice but it will take time before he has 90 minutes in his legs.  Lushtaku may find himself on the bench but as I see it he will feature in every game if he is fit (6-10 Boström has a tendency to substitute his wingers).  Ibrahim I questioned earlier but the more I see of his feet, the more I like him.  Leonidsson is far from the line-up as it looks now.

That's it.  Only thing I need to do before the res-season is wrapped up is to predict Allsvenskan 2011.  I am more or less done but the outcome is so mind-boggling I will sit on my prediction for another while yet.

Kiss the duck - he might become a prince (and not the Boateng kind)

I'm sure someone has tried to list the most influential women in male football, but I have not seen it.  If there is one I would guess that around 8 out of 10 are reporters and quite possibly not all that bad looking.  I may have missed something here but as far as I know the world of football club management has been one of the tighest patriarchies there is.  Not surprising, perhaps, but all the more interesting then that two of my three football clubs now have women in very important positions.

Rose-Marie Frebran in effect took charge of Örebro SK in 2004.  The club was on the verge of bankruptcy and was relegated to the second division.  I had a few dealings with Rose-Marie at the time, and it was pretty clear from the outset that she was, quite frankly, da shit.  She picked up the pieces, mended them together and started to shape a profit-making club that improves year on year, financially as well as in sporting terms, when other clubs are essentially in the gutter.  Already in 2008 Rose-Marie was elected Governor for the Örebro Region.  Give her a media conglomerate and we have an Örebro Berluschina right there.

Then there is the real Berluschina.  Now, Barbara Berlusconi will have a bumpier trip on her way to respect.  The crown princess first seemed to consider AC Milan as daddy's useless little toy.  We saw the good old "22-men-chasing-a-ball" rhetoric, and many Milan fans believed la Berluschina was bound to run the club into a disaster.  Holding on to daddy's toy because he would not let her get rid of it, but not nursing it.  The worst of two worlds.

Then suddenly, Barbara started to pay attention to the club.  She became a regular at San Siro.  The rumours that she favoured one player over the others have been going on for a while.  Felt like the patriarchy hitting back.  But now we know better.  Even the female apple does not need to fall far from the tree.  All uphill from here, Barbara.

Tuesday 22 March 2011

Myths about winners and what we need to get to the top

Many from the small circle of Swedish football experts make the same inaccurate statements over and over about what makes a team win the championship. The most common one is probably "to win you have to have a striker that scores 15 goals".  I have looked at the champions over the past 10 years and can now say "to win you have to have a striker that scores 12-14 goals".

But that is not all.  If we want to summarize, we might say that:
  • You better be the team that wins the most if you want to win the title (hardly a surprise although in 2007 it was not the case).  Winning the most is far more important than losing the least.  Out of the last ten champions, only two won on the "do not lose" policy, Elfsborg in 2006 and IFK Gothenburg in 2007
  • You better be the team that wins the most away from home (this is more important than being the most prolific team at home, and it is more important than winning the most points away).
  • You better have a keeper that keeps the most clean sheets (up to half of the games)
  • You better not have the player that wins the combined goals+assists league.
The last one may look odd.  But in fact never in the last 10 years have the winner of cmobined goals+assists come from the champion.  Otherwise the picture is positive: most of the time, and particularly in the later years, it is the team that goes forward and dares to dominate also away from home the wins the championship.

In more detail:

You typically need 2.03 points per game to become champion, although the trend with 16 rather than 14 teams is that the average should be slightly higher than that.

Örebro obviously need to improve here, last year's average was 1.73.

A pretty normal way to achieving an average of 2 points per game is to win 60% of the games, draw 20% and lose 20%.  At home, you should win around 2/3 of the games, still draw around 20% and lost one or two games tops.  Away, you should win a bit more than half of your games and not lose more than 25% of the games.

Örebro won just over half their games last year, and did not have many draws.  But losing 10 games is certainly not on, no champion over the last 10 years have lost more than 6.

At home, we won 11 out of 15 which is good enough.  Losing 3 is at least one too many, though.

It is away that we need to improve, and in particular (i) on natural grass and (ii) against the better sides.  On astroturf away from home, Örebro won three, drew one and lost none last season.  On natural grass we had the terrible record of two wins, two draws and seven defeats.  But maybe even more importantly, our record away against the bottom six teams of the table was five wins, one draw and no loss, whereas against the other top 10 teams we managed two draws (including a last-minute equalizer against Elfsborg) and lost seven.  I will come back to that at some point, but there is where we really really need to improve.  The last four champions have won 8 away games.

In terms of goalscorers, rarely is the top scorer from the champion (twice in the last ten years, and one of those years the title was tied).  What you need (Elfsborg in 2006 being the exception) is a player that scores about 12-14 goals.

Örebro have struggled to find a prolific goalscorer since Pålsson scored a lot in the early 2000s. This has been a reason why the top results in the 90s (with Kubistzal and then Sahlin, we had a goal guarantee of 10+ every year).  Larsen in the autumn of 2008 looked like he could be the next one, but last year with a top goal scorer with five was pathetic.  Haddad has scored seven in just a few friendlies, and he looks to fit the bill absolutely perfectly.  We will be ok here this year.  I am sure.

So in the end, the only thing we need to prove is: do we have the strategy and quality that it takes to win a few of the big away games? Can we pull back just a little and still keep a clean sheet, and still be lethal of counteracttacks?

At home, we need to learn to be calm.  When we score the first goal we win, when we don't we lose.  That was the story last year and that is dangerous.  I want to see us gain points also in games when we are down 1-0 this season.

Monday 21 March 2011

Na-na-ne can't get us out of his head

Nanne Berstrand probably knows the Swedish League better than anyone else.  Yesterday, he decided to make the trip from Kalmar to Örebro to see Örebro beat Elfsborg in the penultimate pre-season friendly.  Today was the day all coaches from Allsvenskan met for the season kick-off, where the coaches traditionally get to pick their favourite to win the league.  Nanne's choice? Easy.

Da Squad - Part III

Time to turn to the midfielders.

Sixten Boström's idea of playing football is 4-3-3, always, where the three midfielders are all playing centrally, with three very defined roles: a holding midfielder that is the link to the back four, the running midfielder who is a box-to-box player who needs to go deep and he is supposed to get into a finishing position centrally, and a playmaker.

The beginning of this season will see us play with the same three as we did most of last season, i.e. Kihlberg, Bedoya, Gerzic.  But I think we may see more rotation as the season progresses.

Holding midfielder:
First choice: Magnus Kihlberg. "Kihlen" is not getting any younger. Rather, he will be 38 when the season is over.  I don't see him play anywhere near 40 games before then, but Magnus is the backbone and we should use him regularly until his replacement is ready to fly.  This, together with the Wowoah's defensive game, is probably our weakest spot this season.  Kihlberg tends to play with constant feet injuries which hampers his otherwise good shot, and he has no pace at all.  But as long as he wins the ball, balances the midfield and distributes the ball with easy passes, we should be ok.  And you can trust him to do that.

Second choice: I will put Emil Berger here and Erik Nilsson elsewhere, although this may be Nilsson's ideal position.  We will see, at least Boström seems to have opted for Berger here in the pre-season.  Berger is not yet 20, and a big talent who we hope to see more of this season.  Will he be ready to fill the shoes of Kihlen already this season? Too early to tell.  I guess Boström may still prefer Nordback in this position, but I hope Berger gets chances early on.

For the less Örebro-knowledgeable, Emil has an interesting story to tell.  He is the son of Henrik Berger, legend of local rivals Degerfors IF. Signing for Örebro is not populär out in the wild west of the region, and Degerfors were quick to ban Emil from playing last autumn after he signed for Örebro 2011 already last summer. Last time Örebro signed a player from Degerfors it was Daniel Tjernström. I'd settle for a success like that.

Running midfielder:
First choice: For as long as we can keep him, Alejandro Bedoya.  Apparently the recent rejection from U.S. coach Bradley did him good - Alejandro made a man of the match performance against Elfsborg yesterday and is looking promising, very promising, for this season.  In particular, he did this, which is exactly what he did not do enough last season.  Don't listen to them, Ale, you can hit the ball quite neatly.

Only problem here is Alejandro is likely to leave us this summer, and I'm not sure how to deal with that.  Hopefully we should get a good amount of money for him, €1.5 million or so (that is a lot for our club, trust me).  But finding a replacement for a central position midseason is far from ideal.

Second choice: It is hard to say a bad word about Fredrik Nordback.  The Finn has proven his loyalty over and over, and I think he will not have a big problem spending most of this season on the bench.  But is he ready to step in as a regular if Bedoya leaves this summer? Not sure.  He can run forever but he is not a high class footballer, and we need quality here.  Perhaps Berger/Nilsson can take this position, although they are not natural runners in the same way.

Playmaker:
First choice: of course Nordin Gerzic.  He has not had the best of pre-seasons with an anooying virus that clearly hampered him during his first spell with the national team.  But he created Hysén's goal for Sweden against South Africa  and he set up a goal yesterday.  Lot's of pressure on his shoulders, but he should be happy to have the new quality players around him that he has asked for.  We are just waiting for an extension of the contract, very soon.  I don't think Nordin is going anywhere this summer if he just gets a slightly bigger pay check.

Second choice: It seems as if Erik Nilsson will get his chances here if/when Nordin is injured or suspended (he tends to get a few reds and yellows).  And Nilsson's pre-season shows that his left foot has developed and that his self-confidence has grown.  But he is far behind Nordin still, and over all more an all-rounder midfielder than someone cut for this position.

Overall, our midfield will be top notch if we have Bedoya and Gerzic available.  If one of them is absent, this is our weakest link.

Friday 18 March 2011

Dressed for success

Not a big surprise that Super-Mario Balotelli after this warm-up decided to do end Man City's Europa League title hopes in this manner.

Thursday 17 March 2011

Da Squad - Part II

We have narrowed down the squad to 25.  Let's look at 11 of them in the first go, namely the goalies and the defence.

Overall
We have a keeper and two defenders with Swedish national team experience.  We have the two most prolific fullbacks in Sweden when it comes to scoring and providing assists. We have a clear starting line up that have played with each other for two full seasons already.  We have a clear number 1 back-up for the position as central defender and right back, who has been instrumental for us before.  And a bunch of useful others.  Compared to the other four expected top teams Malmö, Helsingborg, Elfsborg and Gothenburg, I'd say we are clear of Helsingborg and at least as good as the others.  My ranking between them is as follows:

1. Elfsborg 23 points
1. Örebro 23 points
3. Göteborg 22 points
4. Malmö 20 points
5. Helsingborg 18 points

Having a back four and a keeper that know each other so well is important as I think we may need to use a few different players in the position as holding midfielder this year (more on that in part three).

Goalkeeper:
First choice: John Alvbåge. A keeper of international standard, a leader, and although a Gothenburg man by birth, a man with Örebro in his heart.  We have seen him prove that many times over.  Alright that he left Örebro when we were relegated in 2004.  He was perhaps the most promising keeper in Sweden and we could not ask him to stay.  But he is back, and the return of John in summer 2008 coincides with our transition from relegation battle team to top-half team (and rising).  John may not have had his best year last year (it is harder to convince when there are fewer goal attempts against you), but we fully trust him and if we are to create an upset in the Europa League qualifyers, we will need him to make a performance of a lifetime.  I'm sure he may do that.  He has looked a bit sloppy in the friendlies this pre-season, but the regular season is a different story.

How long can we keep him? I think John will stay.  If he goes somewhere, it will be to a better club in a better league.  He will need to impress in the Europa League to get there.  His contract ends this season, but negotiations of an extension are ongoing.

Second/third choice: Not sure who to go for her, Nurme or Rosendahl.  Nurme is just coming back from injury, so right now Rosendahl feels safer.

Do we need to strengthen? Not now, but we should perhaps start thinking of life after John.  Local youngster Oscar Jansson (From Adolfsberg!) belongs to Tottenham but is looking for a place to play after a not becoming a regular at Northampton, where he had a short loan spell.  A man for the future that I think we should sign.  With John and legend Anders Karlsson as a goalie coach he will get the education he needs in Örebro.

Right back:
First choice: Patrik Anttonen. The saga of Anttonen after this season was sillier than most silly season stories.  He decided to move on, could not find a club that fitted the bill, and when Örebro approached him again decided to sign a new contract.  Silly, but with a happy ending and great from both sides not to let pride come between them.  I would not switch Anttonen (Alvbåge's brother-in-law) for any other right back in the league (Adam Johansson maybe, but he tends to get injured a lot, even more the Patrik himself).

Second choice: Patrik Haginge. It was disappointing when he decided to leave for Djurgården in mid-2008.  A stupid decision from Patrik believing this was an upgrade (we saw him in the elevator shortly afterwards, he was descending, we were not).  But now he is back, strong defensively, great lungs, fast, good shot but not with the touch of Anttonen.  In my view better as a central defender but a great back-up in particular against better teams.

Third choice: Tommy Wirtanen. A great sport, but if this is the position where we will play, I'm afraid he will be the third choice.  Shaky in defence, but fast enough to recover most of the times.  Will not be on the bench if everyone is fit, but will get his chances.  A perfect "squad player" as he can be used in many positions and will not sulk if he doesn't get a game.

Central defenders:
First choice I: Michael Almebäck. One of two players from allsvenskan in the latest Euro qualifyer squad.  I like Augustsson in Elfsborg, but in my book Almebäck is the best defender in the championship this year.  Big risk of losing him already this summer, and then we need to go shopping.  Finding someone like him will be close to impossible.

First choice II: I have often criticised Magnus Wikström.  No more, I don't, after his fantastic autumn last year.  But I still think this is may be our weakest point in the starting line up.  Works really well with a fast player, though, so matches perfectly with Almebäck and goes well with Haginge too.

Second choice: Patrik Haginge, yet again.  See above.

Third choice: Boris Lumbana is on his way up.  But the Kongolese is still untested in important games.  So if we play Gefle at home, he is the third choice.  If we play a big team, I would be more confident sending Nordback down from the midfield, or Anttonen in from the right.

Left back:
First choice: Samuel Wowoah has been a left back for three seasons now, but is still not fully adapted.  Let's hope this is the season where his positional game improves, in particular on set pieces.  Offensively, there is noone better.  Which other left back in the league has ever done this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRb144rBcbs

Second choice: Well, given that Samuel is never injured when the season starts, and rarely banned, there is almost no such thing.  But I would place Per Johansson here, although he is probably better in midfield.  But again, come a big game, I would be safer using Haginge here as well despite the lack of a left foot.

Great balls of fire

There is a legend that may or may not be true relating to fixed draws of major football events.  The number one conspiracy theory is that of hot and cold balls in the draw bowl.

http://mikewhalley.wordpress.com/2008/03/14/was-the-champions-league-draw-rigged/

So on the basis that there is more to it than the 14.3% chance of any encounter, here is one idea of how UEFA may be thinking for the quarter and semifinal draw of the Champions League, keeping in mind that (i) homecomings are popular, and (ii) Platini is disgusted by the idea of one-country (read: england) domination of European club football.

So, the attractive draws are:
Real-Barca (will mean there will be four clasicos in one month. A once in a lifetime opportunity. And one Spanish team gone)
Real-Chelsea (Mou homecoming)
Real-Inter (Mou homecoming, to some extent also Sneijder)
Real-Schalke (Raul homecoming)
Real-United (Ronaldo homcoming)
Chelsea-Spurs (London derby, albeit no one really sees this encounter as much of a derby.  And one English team gone)
Chelsea-United (English combination, final 2008)
United-Spurs (the other English combinations)
Barcelona-Inter (revenge for last year, Eto'o homecoming)
Barcelona-United (final 2009)

On the basis of that, don't expect Real to be drawn against Spurs or Shaktar.  Not even on the same half.  I guess the draw will be (winners of game 1 and 2 will face each other in semi, as will the winners 3 and 4),

Barca-Real
United-Inter
Chelsea-Spurs
Schalke-Shaktar

Which according to a previous post would give Spurs a 22% chance of playing the final.  I'd settle for that.

Don't call my name, Bob Bradley

Bob Bradley has killed his mockingbird.  Alejandro Bedoya is not picked for the squad that will face Argentina and Paraguay.  I think it may take some time before he will wear the U.S. jersey again, seems he is not part of the plans for Concacaf gold cup.  A shame for Ale, possibly bad for his market value but we are happy to have him around and the crucial last days before the start of the 2011 season, and for the intense early June period.  Here is the U.S roster.

GOALKEEPERS (3): Marcus Hahnemann (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Tim Howard (Everton), David Yelldell (MSV Duisburg)
DEFENDERS (9): Carlos Bocanegra (Saint-Etienne), Jonathan Bornstein (UANL Tigres), Timothy Chandler (FC Nürnberg), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96), Jay DeMerit (Vancouver Whitecaps), Oguchi Onyewu (FC Twente), Tim Ream (New York Red Bulls), Jonathan Spector (West Ham United), Zak Whitbread (Norwich City)
MIDFIELDERS (9): Michael Bradley (Aston Villa), Clint Dempsey (Fulham), Mikkel Diskeruud (Stabaek), Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy), Maurice Edu (Rangers), Benny Feilhaber (AGF Aarhus), Stuart Holden (Bolton Wanderers), Jermaine Jones (Blackburn Rovers), Sacha Kljestan (Anderlecht)
FORWARDS (3): Juan Agudelo (New York Red Bulls), Jozy Altidore (Bursaspor), Edson Buddle (FC Ingolstadt)

Wednesday 16 March 2011

Da Squad - Part I

After rambling for a bit too long about the new and the old, let me spend some time presenting the entire ÖSK squad.

I will first list the 25 players I think should make the final roster and those who should probably be sold or go on loan for a bit.  Then, in separate posts, I will give more details om the goalies/defence, midfield and attack.

I think 25 is a good number.  If 25 is enough a squad size for a premier league team, it is for us.  Thus we have a few too many players right now.  If we make a cut at 25 I would like to see the following players make it (sorted by the position where they in my view are most likely to play):
Goalies:
Alvbåge
Nurme
Rosendahl

Defenders:
Anttonen
Almebäck
Wikström
Wowoah
Haginge
P. Johansson
Wirtanen
Lumbana

Midfielders:
Kihlberg
Bedoya
Gerzic
Nilsson
Berger
Nordback

Strikers:
Astvald
Haddad
Rama
Atashkadeh
Lushtaku
Yasin
Staaf
Ibrahim


This is what I think we should do with the rest:

O Johansson - for sure he will find his form with the youngsters in division II (fourth tier in the Swedish system).  May well get in to the squad after summer but right now he needs games after a long period of injuries.  But we should invest in him, a big talent and a local boy.

Abdulahi - not sure where this guy will end up, but it is clear he is not for the moment close to being a starting player.  He could play both in the defence and in the midfield, but many of our players can.  Six midfielders in the squad may not sound like a lot but with three defenders that are probably better alternatives than Abdulahi (Haginge, Johansson and Wirtanen) I'm afraid this Finnish U-21 international is superflous in our squad.  If that is the case, I think we should look for a new employer for him.  First hand a transfer, second hand a loan.

Skoglund - seems clear he has no future in the club.  Need to find a new club for him asap.  He has been training with Karlstad BK, that shows that this is not a player that matches our ambitions.

Leonidsson - I like the guy.  And I was going back and forth between him and Ibrahim before finally suggesting he is left outside the 25-man squad.  But I think he needs to play a lot more games - just a bit worried that playing with the youngesters is not a high enough level for him.  Best would be to find a Superettan club that he can play with, but the guy is still going to school so that may be tough.  And I don't think it would be a good signal to ship him back to BK Forward.  Maybe best solution to let him practice with the A squad but play with the youngsters?

Holmberg - now this is a big talent that should hopefully build a bit of muscle and be the player the youngsters build their team around this year.  Important to make him ready for the A squad for next season.

Malic - Have no opinon really.  Probably best to let him play with the youngsters too, then we will see.

Tuesday 15 March 2011

Harder, better, faster, stronger

I see more and more predictions of the Swedish league in the press these days.  I see some sort of consensus that Örebro will end up 5th, a little worse then last year because they have "lost a lot of players".  Interesting how myths can spread like that.  Since the end of last year, we have lost the following players compared to players that started last year:

Porokara, 25 starts
Paulinho, 21
Ajdarevic, 3
Bertin Ze, 2
Basssombeng, 1

Ok, Ajdarevic was a useful sub, but I think these numbers speak for themselves.  Then let's have a look at old vs. new players, position by position.

Goal
Out: Westman. In: Rosendahl.  Westman was injured all last year, Rosendahl comes in as third keeper.

Central defenders
Out: Ze. In: Haginge. This is the position as first reserve after Almebäck/Wikström. Bertin Ze was a likeable guy but a shaky defender.  Haginge was instrumental for us before he left for Djurgården.  Good to have him back.

Fullbacks
No change, but with Haginge we have a stronger back-up alternative than last year.

Midfield
Out: Ajdarevic. In: Erik Berger.  The area where it is arguable we have become weaker.  Astrit was very effective last year, and we thank him for the crucial goals against Elfsborg.  But he was not fit to play for 90 mins and he only started three games.  With Berger we might just have the successor of Kihlberg, which in the long run is far more important.  With him and Nilsson and Johansson, we have a bunch of young players ready to step in.

Right winger
Out: Bassombeng. In: Yasin, Malic.  Eric had talent but obviously it was wasted in Örebro.  Eric's trouble-making attitude did not impress Sixten.  He was not going to have an impact and so any replacement is better. Yasin has showed potential, he may well get a few chances to come on as a sub this season.  Malic is for the future, if at all.  Not so sure this was a player we needed.  Maybe we can sell him for some money to Västerås.

Left winger
Out: Porokara, Belle. In: Rama, Lushtaku, Ibrahim. Now we're coming on to the big changes.  Roni Porokara may have had the best track record in the 2010 squad, being a regular for Finland. But how uninspired was the man? Was a shame we could not sell him to Maccabi Haifa, 2010 was a year wasted and Porokara should have been on the bench last autumn.  The need for fresh blood was obvious.  And did we get it! Valdet Rama may well prove the best signing in the history of the club.  My expectations are enormous, here is a player whom many think should have been a regular starter for Hannover 96.  And he plays in the position of Ribery, who is playing for a club just below Hannover in the Bundesliga.  Only problem.  15 games for 96, no goals.  Mostly though, he played as a winger on the midfield, not as a winger striker.  My 96-supporting friend Silvio is convinced the role Rama will get in Örebro is perfect for him.

On top of that, Lushtaku.  A fast and skillful player who seems like the obvious supersub this season.

And on top of that, Ibrahim.  Very good feet, but maybe he is a bit too far from the starting 11 to really get a chance this year.  Maybe a loan? Degerfors? Back to BK Forward? Or will be play with the youngsters.

Striker
Out: Paulinho, Jidsjö, Flood. In: Haddad, Atashkadeh, Holmberg.  We have traded one nice charming Brazilian who did not fit perfectly into our system (and two useless guys one of which was also a trouble-maker) for two big, strong strikers, one of which is an established goal scorer with exactly the characteristics Boström wants.  The other is a major talent, fast, strong, but unfortunately prone to injuries.

But overall, for sure we are harder, better, faster and stronger.

I wanna see the following squad go to Gothenburg for the premiere against IFK:

Alvbåge
Anttonen, Almebäck, Wikström, Wowoah
Kihlberg, Bedoya, Gerzic
Astvald, Haddad, Rama

Bench:
Nurme
Haginge, P. Johansson
Berger, Nilsson
Lushtaku, Atashkadeh

More about the squad later.

And the wall came tumbling down

http://svenskfotboll.se/arkiv/landslag/2011/03/herr/

Mikael Almebäck aka Iron Mike is in the 20-man squad named for the Euro 2012 qualifyer against Moldova. 

When was the last time an ÖSK outfield player was in the Sweden squad for a competitive game?

I think Dan Sahlin was the last one. Sweden-Lithuania, 6 August 1997.

It took a while.  But then again Iron Mike is a man does not let stone walls stand in his way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQnq28-2-bk

Thursday 10 March 2011

Hot like Mexico

You don't have to be a lady to go gaga over Alejandro.

http://www.yanks-abroad.com/get.php?mode=content&id=7482

Of course we are going for gold. The question is whether Ale will stay with us or leave at half time.

Zlatan damns the dammed creek of Dawson

It has always been easy to like a guy like Dawson.  A nice guy, loyal to the club, who always gives his everything.  But it is not until last season he has actually proved to be a class defender.  And last night, he took another step.  Dawson held mighty Zlatan for 90 minutes, and the way this game was played, at least in the first half, Milan would be in the quarterfinal if he hadn't.  Gallas and Sandro were great too, but it was Dawson that took Spurs to this quarterfinal.  I am happy for him and I now hope Spurs gets even further.  What are the chances of a semifinal?  In my view, 40.1%.  This is how I got there:

Assuming there are no "hot and cold balls" involved in the draw, Spurs have 1/7 chance of playing the other teams.  3 other teams are qualified already, and there is thus a 14.3% chance/risk of playing those teams. The liklihood of playing against and winning against those teams I estimate to:
Barcelona: 14.3% x 15%=2.1%
Shaktar: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%
Schalke: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%

Eight other teams may progress to the quarters.  There we have to include an estimate of the chance of that happening.  I get to the following conclusions:
Chelsea (99% chance of progressing): 14.1% x 40%=5.7%
FC Copenhagen (1% chance of progressing): 0.1% x 80%=0.1%
Man Utd (80% chance of progressing): 11.4% x 30%=3.4%
O Marseille (20% chance of progressing): 2.9% x 60%=1.7%
Real Madrid (85% chance of progressing): 12.1% x 25%=3.0%
Lyon (15% chance of progressing): 2.1% x 60%=1.3%
Bayern (90% chance of progressing): 12.9% x 50%=6.4%
Inter (10% chance of progressing): 1.4% x 45%=0.6%

In total, 40.1%.

Wednesday 9 March 2011

And what about the game tonight then?

Maybe a word or two on my predictions for tonight.

Whereas the Barca-Arsenal 3-1 game yesterday was predictable, things can go in a few different directions tonight.  I think we will know quite well where this is going after 15 minutes of play, but before kick-off it is harder to tell.

Starting with the line-ups, I hope to see Spurs like this: Gomes - Corluka, Gallas, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto (well I will never hope to see him, but he will play so I can't hope for anything else really) - Lennon, Jenas, Modric, Bale - van der Vaart, Defoe. Very much an attacking line up with very fast players. I think Bale may be rested and Crouch may be picked over Defoe as a target, but Harry may want Defoe's speed so not sure there. Also quite likely that Hutton will play instead of Corluka.

And then Milan: Abbiati - Abate, Nesta, Tiago Silva, Jankulovski - Flamini, Boateng, Seedorf - Robinho, Pato, Ibrahimovic. If Boateng is fit, I cannot see Allegri play in any other way, Jankulovski is perhaps the only question mark.

So what will the game look like? Spurs will go about it with speed and force from the first minute, no doubt. If they score an early goal, that's probably curtains. They will use the wings and make sure Nesta is tested deep as well.  Milan will need to show that despite lacking their natural leaders in the midfield, the entire team will play with composure and with an early press. 

Are you willing to do that tonight, Clarence? After all, this is your tournament, right?

That's right. When I said it will probably not take long before we know what kind of game this will be, I am very much talking about Clarence Seedorf.  If he has an on-night, he can make the difference.  The occasions when he does are few and far between, but if there is one game where he will do a Lazarus it is tonight.  And he needs to.  If Milan's midfield (missing Pirlo, Gattuso, Ambrosini, van Bommel and Emanuelson) does not come out the may they did against Napoli, Milan will not go through.  Hoping for Ibracadabra only is futile, and Robinho and Pato are absolutely dependent on good delivery from the midfield as their game is based on gettting the ball with speed.  At 9 pm sharp we will be able to tell if they will get it.

Tuesday 8 March 2011

Loyalties sorted

Good moment to re-engage in the blog now when Milan and Spurs are preparing for round two in the worst clash of my long football watching career. A life that may have been full of suffering, disappointment and sorrow, but which was always simple: when Örebro, Milan and Spurs play, I support them.

Until that happened that I have feared would happen ever since Spurs beat City in May last year and qualified for the Champions Leauge qualifyers.  Suddenly two of my three planets were in the same orbit. A collision between two worlds seemed inevitable, and it felt more like a confirmation of what was predestined when live from a Maldivian water villa I watched them be drawn together .

I have had the question a few times since: who do you support? The answer is of course both. The harder question is who would you prefer to win? That one I could not really answer until somewhere halfway into the first half of the first leg. Before the game, this was the best reference that I could make:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ9bht5H2p4

I realise now that was borderline distasteful and I think I have found a more suitable analogy.  I will come to that soon.

When the game started I initially had a terrible headache and I for a while I think I suffered from an emotional short-circuit. When Gattuso tackled Jenas I wanted to shout "no freekick" and "freekick" at the same time.  It was weird.

But as the game progressed, my emotions started to get themselves together.  I wanted Milan to win.  The logic of it made sense in a backward way.  Milan were the favourites and played at home but they played tentatively (no press), uninspired (no creativity in the midfield) and ugly (Gattuso and Flamini had that kind of a day). Spurs were the new kid on the block, happy to be there but determined to give it a go.  If I was neutral, it would have been natural to support the Yiddos.  But it was then I realised I didn't.  And so when Zlatan made a sloppy pass, Lennon started a counterattack, avoided a crazy tackle from Yepes and served Crouch I was sure where my true loyalties were.

And there, somewhere, the right analogy appeared: I have one kid.  That's Örebro and I will always stand by my kid no matter what.  Spurs and Milan are like to nephews from two different siblings.  Spurs is the oldest one (I started supporting them before I started school, I thought they were called Tottingham and I thought it was a cool name), the one I first got in contact with but who did not grow up in my vicinity.  From time to time I even had some problems getting along with the parents (the self-righteousness of the Premier League).  Milan arrived in my life a bit later, somewhere around 1985, but grew up in much closer contact with me.  We therefore have much closer memories.  The jury is still out on whether the closeness or the success is really what decided how my symphathies swung, but swung they did so that when my two nephews faced each other I found myself wanting the for the moment less attractive one to go through a bit more.

So, loyalties sorted.  Doesn't make next Wednesday a bit less dreadful.  Just a bit less confusing.