Although Barclay's Premier League will squeeze in another round of football before the end of the year, it is fair to say we have a very clear trend in the four biggest football leagues: the top is tighter than usual, but in the end it seems as if we will end up with four two-horse races between old rivals. Could be worse. So note down the following dates in your calendars, it is not a wild guess that whoever wins these games will win the league titles:
26 Feb: Milan-Juventus
Current standing:
1. Milan 34 points
2. Juve 34 points
3. Udinese 32 points
Autumn result: Juve-Milan 2-0.
Other title challengers: Hardly. Udinese and Lazio do not possess the squads to last a whole season, Inter and Roma are too far back and with tough schedules. Napoli have put focus on Champions League.
Comment: Juve under Conte are still unbeaten, they can spend the spring concentrating on the league and the game against Milan is the only away game against a top team: Juve plays at home against Udinese, Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Roma in the spring. On the other hand, Milan like an old train have finally starting to roll fast, score a lot of goals and have the Championship guarantee player Ibrahimovic. Although many game days will remain after this tie, the winner will be the big title favourite.
11 April: Dortmund-Bayern
Current standing:
1. Bayern 37 points
2. Dortmund 34 points
3. Schalke 34 points
Autumn result: Bayern-Dortmund 0-1
Other title challengers: Schalke cannot be ruled out. They are in it, and they play Dortmund at home just three days after this clash. But still - I am pretty sure Bayern and Dortmund will have ran away from Schalke before that.
Comment: Bayern had a match point in the November clash, but blew it. They may well have another one in April.
22 April: Barcelona-Real Madrid
Current standing:
1. Real Madrid 40 points
2. Barcelona 37 points
3. Sevilla 33 points
Autumn result: Real-Madrid-Barcelona 1-3
Other title challengers: yeah, right.
Comment: Always the decider? The big two have perhaps been a little little less dominant so far (Manchester City, Manchester United and Real have the exact same average points per game). Barcelona look like the team that will not get away with a draw this time, but they have a big big clasico upper hand.
28 April: Manchester City-Manchester United
Current standing:
1. Manchester City 45
2. Manchester United 45
3. Spurs 38 (with a game in hand)
Autumn result: United-City 1-6
Other title challengers: Spurs are closest. Spurs will not win.
Comment: After this game, only two league games remain. This has the potential to be the biggest Manchester derby of all times, and the 1-6 shocker from October, or Rooney over-head kicking away City's titles dreams 2010/2011 do not make it worse. Despite injuries, United show the best form and will need to gain an advantage during the Christmas period - they are looking at a very tough schedule 2012 with away games against Newclaste, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (and a home game against Liverpool) between 4 January and 3 March. But United is United. City are looking more vulnerable now than earlier in the season, the goals do not come as easy, and are despite the strong squad very dependent on a few players (Hart, Kompany, Silva).
Wednesday 28 December 2011
Friday 16 December 2011
More balls on fire
If the Champions League draw was comparatively dull, the Europa League draw was not. The first two draws drawn out of the hat were Porto-Man City and Ajax-United. The four biggest losers from the Champions League group stage clashing against each other straight away.
And on top of that, Porto or City will likely play Sporting ín the next round.
5 out of 8 English teams survived the group stage if you include the Manchester teams demoted to Europa League. Not a great result, but what next:
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Porto-City
Ajax-United
Stoke-Valencia
Wow. Hard to make up a tougher draw.
Other big games to look forward to are
Lazio-Atlectico
AZ-Anderlecht
A possible Liege-Brugge tie in the next round
And on top of that, Porto or City will likely play Sporting ín the next round.
5 out of 8 English teams survived the group stage if you include the Manchester teams demoted to Europa League. Not a great result, but what next:
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Porto-City
Ajax-United
Stoke-Valencia
Wow. Hard to make up a tougher draw.
Other big games to look forward to are
Lazio-Atlectico
AZ-Anderlecht
A possible Liege-Brugge tie in the next round
Great Balls of Fire Part whatever
Quick and dirty on the Champions League draw:
Lyon-APOEL
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Basel-Bayern München
Leverkusen-Barcelona
CSKA-Real
Zenit-Benfica
Marseille-Inter
Not one single draw that makes you lose your breath. Someone might have forgotten to heat up the balls. But 2xItaly against England sticks out. I think the English are more unhappy than the Italians over that, actually.
Pretty sure Leverkusen are kicking themselves for letting the group win slip. The three title favourites Bayern, Barca and Real are the only obvious quarter finalists, all other games remain open.
The two French sides that were almost out of the group stage now have decent chances of reaching the quarterfinal.
Now Europa League.
Lyon-APOEL
Napoli-Chelsea
Milan-Arsenal
Basel-Bayern München
Leverkusen-Barcelona
CSKA-Real
Zenit-Benfica
Marseille-Inter
Not one single draw that makes you lose your breath. Someone might have forgotten to heat up the balls. But 2xItaly against England sticks out. I think the English are more unhappy than the Italians over that, actually.
Pretty sure Leverkusen are kicking themselves for letting the group win slip. The three title favourites Bayern, Barca and Real are the only obvious quarter finalists, all other games remain open.
The two French sides that were almost out of the group stage now have decent chances of reaching the quarterfinal.
Now Europa League.
Cobi Span
To my American followers: what can you tell me about Cobi Span? He is about to board a flight to Sweden.
Friday 18 November 2011
Mourinhovember 1st quarter analysis
Back to club football after the last break for international games for a while.
Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?
Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out". Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.
Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4. Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after. But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.
2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City. Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal. Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.
3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal. A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.
4. Levante. If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top. A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back. For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season. We enjoyed it while it lasted.
5. Udinese. I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year. Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.
6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United. They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2. Both those games were played at home. In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home. If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously. Chances are they won't be.
7. Lazio. I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes. So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.
8. Paris SG. After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect. You got your bigs signings in order quickly. But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.
9. Mönchengladbach. The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga. But more of a team for the future.
10. AZ Alkmaar. Dominating Eredivisie. And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.
Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)
Losers
1. Inter. Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal. And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.
2. Villareal. Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that. But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.
3. Hamburger SV. Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season. For a team of HSV's size that is no good.
4. Arsenal. Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership. But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it. If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness. He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.
5. Bourdeaux. Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.
Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.
The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:
Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?
Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out". Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.
Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4. Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after. But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.
2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City. Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal. Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.
3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal. A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.
4. Levante. If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top. A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back. For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season. We enjoyed it while it lasted.
5. Udinese. I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year. Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.
6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United. They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2. Both those games were played at home. In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home. If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously. Chances are they won't be.
7. Lazio. I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes. So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.
8. Paris SG. After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect. You got your bigs signings in order quickly. But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.
9. Mönchengladbach. The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga. But more of a team for the future.
10. AZ Alkmaar. Dominating Eredivisie. And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.
Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)
Losers
1. Inter. Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal. And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.
2. Villareal. Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that. But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.
3. Hamburger SV. Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season. For a team of HSV's size that is no good.
4. Arsenal. Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership. But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it. If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness. He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.
5. Bourdeaux. Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.
Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.
The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:
- Barcelona. You can't afford losing many points in la Liga, and Barcelona are now in a place where they may not afford losing to Real in December. But after Milan's hick-up in Borisov, a draw in Milan should be enough to win the Champions League group.
- Manchester United. Winning 8-2 against Arsenal, but losing 1-6 at home to City. An uninspired start to Champions League, but still doing what's required.
- Chelsea. The jury is really still out here, as Chelsea under Vilas-Boas occasionally have flexed muscles but never impressed when they really needed to use them. In the big games, they have lost to United away (3-1) at to Arsenal at home (3-5), and drawn away to Valencia (1-1). Biggest win so far is 2-0 at home to Leverkusen, who has not impressed anyone.
- Milan. A bad start in the league and without the late equalizer against Barcelona and media focus on the even more miserable starts by Inter and Roma, there would have been crisis talks in September. But now on a winning streak in the league, in range of the top and qualified for Champions League knock-out stages, Milan can look forward.
- Tottenham. A soft start including losing on penalties in the League cup, having the first league game cancelled due to riots and then losing two to Manchester United and City 8-1 on aggregate. Leaving aside the junior squad that Redknapp sends to the Europa League, Spurs have actually been fantastic since then, with 7 wins and 1 draw in the league and from time to time producing football that should take them back to the Champions League.
- Juventus. Are in a good place, performing better then expected and crowning that with prestige wins against Milan and Inter.
Wednesday 16 November 2011
Great Balls of Fire III
Seedings for Euro 2012 are now definite.
Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland
For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4. Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy. What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.
The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France. That would be something else.
The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs. Let's hope that happens.
In my dream world, I would like to see:
Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic
Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points. If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.
Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland
OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden. And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.
Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France
Too tempting. Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.
Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark
Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland
For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4. Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy. What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.
The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France. That would be something else.
The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs. Let's hope that happens.
In my dream world, I would like to see:
Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic
Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points. If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.
Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland
OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden. And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.
Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France
Too tempting. Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.
Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark
Thursday 3 November 2011
Can we pretend that airplanes on the night sky are shooting stars?
We could really use a bunch of wishes right now.
Here's my wish list for Örebro SK's midseason work, in order of preference. For transfers, I opt not to mention specific names but rather the types of players we need as I cannot claim to know the huge worldwide market of football players. I don't Örebro's management has that knowledge either, but they should beat me here.
1. Sort out the losing mentality, declare 2012 the year of revenge and make Nordin captain. I have been quite exhaustive here before, let's not develop further.
2. Contract two good goalkeepers. High on the list as we have lost one and fired one. Goes without saying that we need to do something about that. As a true örebroer, and on top of that from Adolfsberg, Oscar Jansson is a romantic wish. But I think we need two that are good enough to play at a high level.
3. Find a Bedoya carbon copy. Örebro SK is not the same without an effective, non-stop box-to-box runner. I would ultimately want to see a Bedoya type player who is even stronger in man-to-man situations. Bedoya was fairly effective but had a tendence of getting a yellow card in every game, one more often two of them than zero.
4. Develop the youth section. Örebro's youths had a terrible year, and will now probably close down their operations. Fair enough, better to have a top notch under 21 team than a team struggling in the 5th tier or whatever it would be next season. Players like Kalle Holmberg (who should get a decent amount of A team minutes next season) form a basis for a top team. Add local talents to that group, make this team the go to team for all football talents within a range of 150 kilmetres and we can have something here.
5. Find a central defender that combines with Wikström. Someone with speed, ok feet, a high lowest level and a winning mentality. Think Mellberg (Örebro is not far away from his hometown but of course I'm dreaming here).
6. A purely defensive midfielder. I want Berger, Gerzic and the box-to-box player that is number 3 on this list to be the starting line up. But we should not underestimate the value of having a purely defensive midfielder, with experience, that we can through in when we want to defend a lead. Berger is a great talent but still needs to win more balls. That is why we need to find a box-to-box player that have defensive skills as well, but we need one more because let's face it - we don't have many midfielders left after selling Bedoya, retiring Nordback and Kihlberg and in other ways disposing of Nilsson and I guess also Skoglund.
7. Replace the "ball-striking coach" we have with a talent developer. The dream choice here is Benny Lennartsson. Give him freedom to work with a few players: Berger's defensive and man-to-man game, Gerzic leadership role, Rama's positional play and cooperation with Bedoya. Details that could mean so much. Lennartsson is also a great motivational coach.
What else do we need? A central attacker? I don't know, if we can find alternative ways of playing I think Holmberg could step in as a complement to the so often injured Haddad and Atashkadeh.
A full back? I will not join the group that says Wowoah is finished. He had an off season, but part of that was bad cooperation with the egocentric Valdet Rama. Hopefully ÖSK can work on this over the next few months. And Per Johansson is an alternative here. To the right, we have Antonnen hopefully coming back, if we get another central defender both Haginge and Eidur could be complements both centrally and on the right.
Who do we say goodbye to? We know that Alvbåge, Kihlberg, Nordback, Rosendahl, Leonidsson and Lumbana will leave the squad (as did earlier Almebäck, Bedoya and Nilsson), and it seems pretty sure that ÖSK will not proceed with the loans/short term contracts of Riski and Brunet.
On top of that, I would be surprised to see Skoglund come back, Staaf looks certain to go, and I'm not sure which roles Wirtanen should play either.
Assuming all these go, we have a squad right now consisting of:
Suggestions welcome
Here's my wish list for Örebro SK's midseason work, in order of preference. For transfers, I opt not to mention specific names but rather the types of players we need as I cannot claim to know the huge worldwide market of football players. I don't Örebro's management has that knowledge either, but they should beat me here.
1. Sort out the losing mentality, declare 2012 the year of revenge and make Nordin captain. I have been quite exhaustive here before, let's not develop further.
2. Contract two good goalkeepers. High on the list as we have lost one and fired one. Goes without saying that we need to do something about that. As a true örebroer, and on top of that from Adolfsberg, Oscar Jansson is a romantic wish. But I think we need two that are good enough to play at a high level.
3. Find a Bedoya carbon copy. Örebro SK is not the same without an effective, non-stop box-to-box runner. I would ultimately want to see a Bedoya type player who is even stronger in man-to-man situations. Bedoya was fairly effective but had a tendence of getting a yellow card in every game, one more often two of them than zero.
4. Develop the youth section. Örebro's youths had a terrible year, and will now probably close down their operations. Fair enough, better to have a top notch under 21 team than a team struggling in the 5th tier or whatever it would be next season. Players like Kalle Holmberg (who should get a decent amount of A team minutes next season) form a basis for a top team. Add local talents to that group, make this team the go to team for all football talents within a range of 150 kilmetres and we can have something here.
5. Find a central defender that combines with Wikström. Someone with speed, ok feet, a high lowest level and a winning mentality. Think Mellberg (Örebro is not far away from his hometown but of course I'm dreaming here).
6. A purely defensive midfielder. I want Berger, Gerzic and the box-to-box player that is number 3 on this list to be the starting line up. But we should not underestimate the value of having a purely defensive midfielder, with experience, that we can through in when we want to defend a lead. Berger is a great talent but still needs to win more balls. That is why we need to find a box-to-box player that have defensive skills as well, but we need one more because let's face it - we don't have many midfielders left after selling Bedoya, retiring Nordback and Kihlberg and in other ways disposing of Nilsson and I guess also Skoglund.
7. Replace the "ball-striking coach" we have with a talent developer. The dream choice here is Benny Lennartsson. Give him freedom to work with a few players: Berger's defensive and man-to-man game, Gerzic leadership role, Rama's positional play and cooperation with Bedoya. Details that could mean so much. Lennartsson is also a great motivational coach.
What else do we need? A central attacker? I don't know, if we can find alternative ways of playing I think Holmberg could step in as a complement to the so often injured Haddad and Atashkadeh.
A full back? I will not join the group that says Wowoah is finished. He had an off season, but part of that was bad cooperation with the egocentric Valdet Rama. Hopefully ÖSK can work on this over the next few months. And Per Johansson is an alternative here. To the right, we have Antonnen hopefully coming back, if we get another central defender both Haginge and Eidur could be complements both centrally and on the right.
Who do we say goodbye to? We know that Alvbåge, Kihlberg, Nordback, Rosendahl, Leonidsson and Lumbana will leave the squad (as did earlier Almebäck, Bedoya and Nilsson), and it seems pretty sure that ÖSK will not proceed with the loans/short term contracts of Riski and Brunet.
On top of that, I would be surprised to see Skoglund come back, Staaf looks certain to go, and I'm not sure which roles Wirtanen should play either.
Assuming all these go, we have a squad right now consisting of:
- One keeper (plus 2 on my wish list)
- Six defenders, three primarily central, three fullbacks, with one more central defender on the wish list)
- Three midfielders (with two more on the wish list. Per Johansson can also fill in if necessary, and Paulinho can cover for Gerzic)
- Nine strikers, pretty much three for each position. No need to add to that list, I say.
Suggestions welcome
Monday 31 October 2011
...so why don't you kill me?
Season over för Örebro SK. We're in hell right now, gentlemen. Believe me. And, we can stay here, get the shit kicked out of us, or we can fight our way back into the light.
The final game was a succint, cruel, summary of this anno horribilis.
I am not thinking of the pre-game injury of Valdet Rama. And not on the tentative goalkeeping on the opening goal.
Three things in the second half really exposed what kind of team Örebro SK is 2011.
It's not supernatural. A ball gets deflected many times during a football game. A player with a mind set to win does not question a deflection: he acts upon the opportunity, or, if he is a defender in the penalty box, he gets rid of the ball. On the contrary: when Haginge saw Alvbåge slip on Saturday, and the ball bouncing towards his shin, I bet he had time to think: "Oh no, he is slipping, what if the ball slips through now and I can't control it. I can't score an owngoal now, then the season is over". I'm sure he would not admit it, he may not have any noticed it, but he did. Patrik, it's your cowardice that holds you frozen, not the Gorgon's power.
The ÖSK attacking game showed the same lack of killer instrinct, the same sort of loser mentality. I want to see an ÖSK team where every player when attacking is confident that his team will score. Therefore, he runs, he looks for positions from which to shoot, he feels creative.
Örebro SK under Sixten Boström, let's face it, has learnt how to pass and control the ball, but always had a tendency of becoming static around the penalty box. But this season, they are not only static. They are undetermined. The fear of missing overwins the hunger to score.
It is only where there is nothing to play for that Paulinho suddenly mixes cool with creativity and scores one of the best goals of the season.
Because when this team can relax and play with confidence, there is no team in Sweden that is naturally a better team. This years squad was one of the best we ever had, and certainly a squad strong enough to challenge for the title.
Our fans are currently ranging against everything and everyone. The players are crap, the coach is crap, the club management is crap.
I'm sure there is some merit in lots of the criticism but before the kickstart the chainsaw, let's try and analyze the situation. Let's try not to forget that essentially these players, this coach and this management is what brought Örebro from the dungeons of the second division and into a Europa League spot in 5 years or so.
Likewise, the way the club tries to blame everything on injuries and two sold players is nonsense. Of course it would have been easier if we had all our players available, but that does not explain how we lost nine leads in 30 games. It does not explain why Marcus Astvald, last year an Under 21 international, on the year he should have his big break through, looks like the football pitch is the last place he wants to be.
So what is it? How do we fight our way back into the light?
There are technical aspects we need to work on, for sure (movement, lads!) and with two players sold and two retired we need to do a bit of squad rebuilding, in particular in midfield.
But there is only one key aspect.
We have been lacking inspired leadership this season. Coach Boström, whatever you think of him, will not make his team eat nails in the dressing room. He is more of a technical director than a match coach. Either he needs an assistant coach that can make the players walk the extra mile, and do so with confidence, or he needs to find leadership on the pitch. I think the latter option is the right way to go.
If we look at the team today, the key players can be split in three groups:
If we see that kind of Nordin next year, we will not squander nine opening goals. We will not feel the game is lost if we concede that opening goal. In a league like Allsvenskan, that can take you a long way.
The final game was a succint, cruel, summary of this anno horribilis.
I am not thinking of the pre-game injury of Valdet Rama. And not on the tentative goalkeeping on the opening goal.
Three things in the second half really exposed what kind of team Örebro SK is 2011.
- The neat passing game that made us dominate the game up until the penalty box, where no one seemed interested to make runs, to shoot, to do anything put keep on passing the ball.
- The inevitable counterattack where Alvbåge slips and the ball bounces off the shin of Haginge and into the goal.
- The beautiful, speedy, one-two and the lethal finish from Paulinho at a moment when the game was already lost.
It's not supernatural. A ball gets deflected many times during a football game. A player with a mind set to win does not question a deflection: he acts upon the opportunity, or, if he is a defender in the penalty box, he gets rid of the ball. On the contrary: when Haginge saw Alvbåge slip on Saturday, and the ball bouncing towards his shin, I bet he had time to think: "Oh no, he is slipping, what if the ball slips through now and I can't control it. I can't score an owngoal now, then the season is over". I'm sure he would not admit it, he may not have any noticed it, but he did. Patrik, it's your cowardice that holds you frozen, not the Gorgon's power.
The ÖSK attacking game showed the same lack of killer instrinct, the same sort of loser mentality. I want to see an ÖSK team where every player when attacking is confident that his team will score. Therefore, he runs, he looks for positions from which to shoot, he feels creative.
Örebro SK under Sixten Boström, let's face it, has learnt how to pass and control the ball, but always had a tendency of becoming static around the penalty box. But this season, they are not only static. They are undetermined. The fear of missing overwins the hunger to score.
It is only where there is nothing to play for that Paulinho suddenly mixes cool with creativity and scores one of the best goals of the season.
Because when this team can relax and play with confidence, there is no team in Sweden that is naturally a better team. This years squad was one of the best we ever had, and certainly a squad strong enough to challenge for the title.
Our fans are currently ranging against everything and everyone. The players are crap, the coach is crap, the club management is crap.
I'm sure there is some merit in lots of the criticism but before the kickstart the chainsaw, let's try and analyze the situation. Let's try not to forget that essentially these players, this coach and this management is what brought Örebro from the dungeons of the second division and into a Europa League spot in 5 years or so.
Likewise, the way the club tries to blame everything on injuries and two sold players is nonsense. Of course it would have been easier if we had all our players available, but that does not explain how we lost nine leads in 30 games. It does not explain why Marcus Astvald, last year an Under 21 international, on the year he should have his big break through, looks like the football pitch is the last place he wants to be.
So what is it? How do we fight our way back into the light?
There are technical aspects we need to work on, for sure (movement, lads!) and with two players sold and two retired we need to do a bit of squad rebuilding, in particular in midfield.
But there is only one key aspect.
We have been lacking inspired leadership this season. Coach Boström, whatever you think of him, will not make his team eat nails in the dressing room. He is more of a technical director than a match coach. Either he needs an assistant coach that can make the players walk the extra mile, and do so with confidence, or he needs to find leadership on the pitch. I think the latter option is the right way to go.
If we look at the team today, the key players can be split in three groups:
- The mercenaries: sold Bedoya, sold Almebäck, deserted Alvbåge, and those who are still there - Rama, Paulinho). They will never really care about us. But they want to win.
- The loyal soldiers: Wikström, Kihlberg, Antonnen, Hagine, Astvald, Nordback, Wowoah. They are locals, they do care, but lack the charisma to be the leader of men
- The bohemian: Nordin Gerzic.
If we see that kind of Nordin next year, we will not squander nine opening goals. We will not feel the game is lost if we concede that opening goal. In a league like Allsvenskan, that can take you a long way.
Friday 28 October 2011
Yo soy un perdedor...
I am about to reveal some pretty disturbing facts for Örebro SK fans.
First: this is not the post-season wrap up. That would be premature. We have a chance to save our faces and our dignity starting with the cup semifinal tomorrow. All focus on that.
But I need to refer back to my August post 1-0 and we f* it up 0-1 and we f* it up. It looked bad then. It looks worse now. I took the liberty to recalculate Allsvenskan 2011 according to the golden goal rule: first goal wins; 0-0 draws are counted as draws.
The figures speak for themselves.
First, the real Allsvenskan final standings:
Then, the Golden Goal league (golden goal rule points, allsvenskan points, difference):
Not much happens in the table, except that Örebro jumps from 12th to 1st position! With a 6-point margin!
How can it be?
In number terms, it is because out of 30 games:
I raised the question to the Örebro coach during a chat this autumn. His response was laconic and uninspired. To me, this is serious. I still feel that in terms of quality, we had a team that could have been contenders. Instead of bums, which is what we are, let's face it. Unless we win the cup.
First: this is not the post-season wrap up. That would be premature. We have a chance to save our faces and our dignity starting with the cup semifinal tomorrow. All focus on that.
But I need to refer back to my August post 1-0 and we f* it up 0-1 and we f* it up. It looked bad then. It looks worse now. I took the liberty to recalculate Allsvenskan 2011 according to the golden goal rule: first goal wins; 0-0 draws are counted as draws.
The figures speak for themselves.
First, the real Allsvenskan final standings:
| 1 | Helsingborg | 63 |
| 2 | AIK | 58 |
| 3 | Elfsborg | 57 |
| 4 | Malmö | 54 |
| 5 | Gais | 51 |
| 5 | Häcken | 49 |
| 7 | IFK Göteborg | 45 |
| 8 | Kalmar | 44 |
| 9 | Gefle | 41 |
| 10 | Mjällby | 40 |
| 11 | Djurgården | 36 |
| 12 | Örebro SK | 36 |
| 13 | IFK Norrköping | 34 |
| 14 | Syrianska | 28 |
| 15 | Trelleborg | 25 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 14 |
Then, the Golden Goal league (golden goal rule points, allsvenskan points, difference):
| Örebro SK | 61 | 36 | -25 |
| Helsingborg | 55 | 63 | 8 |
| AIK | 55 | 58 | 3 |
| Häcken | 55 | 49 | -6 |
| Gais | 51 | 51 | 0 |
| Elfsborg | 46 | 57 | 11 |
| Malmö | 43 | 54 | 11 |
| Kalmar | 43 | 44 | 1 |
| Djurgården | 43 | 36 | -7 |
| IFK Göteborg | 41 | 45 | 4 |
| Mjällby | 41 | 40 | -1 |
| IFK Norrköping | 36 | 34 | -2 |
| Trelleborg | 36 | 25 | -11 |
| Gefle | 35 | 41 | 6 |
| Syrianska | 33 | 28 | -5 |
| Halmstad | 30 | 14 | -16 |
Not much happens in the table, except that Örebro jumps from 12th to 1st position! With a 6-point margin!
How can it be?
In number terms, it is because out of 30 games:
- In 9 games, we conceded the first goal. We lost them all.
- one game ended 0-0.
- In 20 games, we scored the opening goal. We won 11, drew 2 and lost 7.
I raised the question to the Örebro coach during a chat this autumn. His response was laconic and uninspired. To me, this is serious. I still feel that in terms of quality, we had a team that could have been contenders. Instead of bums, which is what we are, let's face it. Unless we win the cup.
Friday 14 October 2011
Elmander! And Elm! And all of them.
Getting some distance to the epic win, the beauty, the joy. We are qualified after a qualification campaign where we played well at home but struggled away.
So as qualification campaigns go, not one of our best, but the ending was one of the most beautiful. The Swedish national team in my life time are perhaps most known for memorable draws when it comes to the top teams: a bunch of them against England (1988, 1989, 1999, 2002, 2006), West Germany in 1985, France in 1992 and 1993, Brazil in 1994, Argentina in 2002, Italy in 2004.
When it comes to big wins in competitive games, there are not that many. Excluding the days before I was born (beating Italy and Spain in the 1950 world cup, Germany in 1958 and so on), and discounting wins that were big because of their importance but not against the really big footballing nations (Poland 1989, Denmark 1992, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Romania and Bulgaria 1994, a bunch of more qualifier and tournament wins against Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary, Turkey 2001, Nigeria 2002, Paraguay 2006, we are left with a pretty short list: wins I have experienced against the big teams in competitive games. Here they are, in chronological order:
29 May, 1983: Sweden-Italy 2-0. You may think that opening goal header from Håkan Sandberg was not very impressive. But for being a PE teacher in Örebro, he was pretty accurate. And then Glenn Strömberg, of course Glenn, took advantage of a pretty terrible Italian defensive header.
15 October 1983: Italy-Sweden 0-3. That Glenn again, securing a second win against the world champions. How did we not qualify for Euro '84 after that? By losing twice to Romania, that's how. I'm still upset.
3 June, 1987: Sweden-Italy 1-0. The absence of the clear goal opportunity red card at the time, a magnificent penalty save from Ravelli and a the longest 1-2 combination in history brilliantly set up and executed by He-Man cheeked central defender Peter Larsson made us believe in Euro '88 qualification. Three on the trot against Italy. But it went downhill after that.
17 June, 1992: Sweden-England 2-1. Efter a period of dominating Italy, Engeland became our next victim. EfterSweden Glenn Hysén held England at Wembley in 1988 and then Terry Butcher stealing the show in 1989, Brolin decided to take the 1-2 to yet another level and securing a semifinal in our home championship in Euro 1992.
5 September 1998: Sweden-England 2-1. Maybe more thanks to David Seaman than anyone else. But a fantastic start to our most impressive qualification campaign ever, I think.
8 October 2006: Sweden-Spain 2-0. Up until last week, the last time Sweden looked really impressive. The only game I could not watch.
And, then, the unforgettable 11 October 2011.
What ranks highest? The 1992 game is a championship game and secured qualification to the Euro semifinal. That is hard to beat. Beating Italy 3-0 away is near impossible, but these were world champions that were already out of qualification.
The game against Spain was against a Spain that had already lost points and that could not really afford losing many more. It was against a team that was about to develop to be the best team in the world.
But for us, for Sweden, the Holland game is special as it secured qualifcation. Similar to Turkey in 2001, there we were head to head against our rivals but here we played against a team with one of the most impressive winning streaks in history, save for the world cup final.
You can make a case for any of those for as the biggest win under the belt in my lifetime. So yes, 11 October was a big day.
So as qualification campaigns go, not one of our best, but the ending was one of the most beautiful. The Swedish national team in my life time are perhaps most known for memorable draws when it comes to the top teams: a bunch of them against England (1988, 1989, 1999, 2002, 2006), West Germany in 1985, France in 1992 and 1993, Brazil in 1994, Argentina in 2002, Italy in 2004.
When it comes to big wins in competitive games, there are not that many. Excluding the days before I was born (beating Italy and Spain in the 1950 world cup, Germany in 1958 and so on), and discounting wins that were big because of their importance but not against the really big footballing nations (Poland 1989, Denmark 1992, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Romania and Bulgaria 1994, a bunch of more qualifier and tournament wins against Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary, Turkey 2001, Nigeria 2002, Paraguay 2006, we are left with a pretty short list: wins I have experienced against the big teams in competitive games. Here they are, in chronological order:
29 May, 1983: Sweden-Italy 2-0. You may think that opening goal header from Håkan Sandberg was not very impressive. But for being a PE teacher in Örebro, he was pretty accurate. And then Glenn Strömberg, of course Glenn, took advantage of a pretty terrible Italian defensive header.
15 October 1983: Italy-Sweden 0-3. That Glenn again, securing a second win against the world champions. How did we not qualify for Euro '84 after that? By losing twice to Romania, that's how. I'm still upset.
3 June, 1987: Sweden-Italy 1-0. The absence of the clear goal opportunity red card at the time, a magnificent penalty save from Ravelli and a the longest 1-2 combination in history brilliantly set up and executed by He-Man cheeked central defender Peter Larsson made us believe in Euro '88 qualification. Three on the trot against Italy. But it went downhill after that.
17 June, 1992: Sweden-England 2-1. Efter a period of dominating Italy, Engeland became our next victim. Efter
5 September 1998: Sweden-England 2-1. Maybe more thanks to David Seaman than anyone else. But a fantastic start to our most impressive qualification campaign ever, I think.
8 October 2006: Sweden-Spain 2-0. Up until last week, the last time Sweden looked really impressive. The only game I could not watch.
And, then, the unforgettable 11 October 2011.
What ranks highest? The 1992 game is a championship game and secured qualification to the Euro semifinal. That is hard to beat. Beating Italy 3-0 away is near impossible, but these were world champions that were already out of qualification.
The game against Spain was against a Spain that had already lost points and that could not really afford losing many more. It was against a team that was about to develop to be the best team in the world.
But for us, for Sweden, the Holland game is special as it secured qualifcation. Similar to Turkey in 2001, there we were head to head against our rivals but here we played against a team with one of the most impressive winning streaks in history, save for the world cup final.
You can make a case for any of those for as the biggest win under the belt in my lifetime. So yes, 11 October was a big day.
Monday 10 October 2011
Elm and... er...? II
Tomorrow. Holland. Not a must-win this time. But a very much wanna-win as a win means a ticket to Euro 2012 as best runner-up and with a draw we have a chance although my bet goes to Denmarl (kick-off changed, someone read my "No academic quarter" post).
How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan. But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors. Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea. And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander
Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.
But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now. Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):
Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)
Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)
So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).
An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.
How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan. But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors. Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea. And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander
Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.
But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now. Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):
Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)
Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)
So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).
An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.
Friday 7 October 2011
Elm and... er...?
Tonight: Finland-Sweden. Must win game. Nervous.
Coach Hamrén continues to play 4-4-2 against Finland (although of course it is called 4-2-3-1). I'm ok with that, I am in agreement to play Rasmus Elm although I am not sure at all that it was a good decision not to play Anders Svensson. Elm called Svensson a fossile, or actually the fossile, earlier this week. Jokingly, but still. Anders and I are the same age, ready for a life on the bench.
But against Holland on Tuesday I would like to see a real 4-2-3-1. I would like Svensson to come back on the starting XI, at the expense of Elmander. I want us to play with three central midfielders, and I want to keep Elmander on the bench to come on if we need speed in the second half.
Coach Hamrén continues to play 4-4-2 against Finland (although of course it is called 4-2-3-1). I'm ok with that, I am in agreement to play Rasmus Elm although I am not sure at all that it was a good decision not to play Anders Svensson. Elm called Svensson a fossile, or actually the fossile, earlier this week. Jokingly, but still. Anders and I are the same age, ready for a life on the bench.
But against Holland on Tuesday I would like to see a real 4-2-3-1. I would like Svensson to come back on the starting XI, at the expense of Elmander. I want us to play with three central midfielders, and I want to keep Elmander on the bench to come on if we need speed in the second half.
Thursday 6 October 2011
The Sorrow Gondola
Although a good Swede of course should quote Tranströmer on a day like this (and drink to the reawoken old Swedish custom of awarding ourselves), today is a day of lost man love. At 4pm IFK Göteborg will announce that they have poached our goalie Alvbåge. The day he came back in 2008 is the day we started looking up the table, the day our team started to be mentioned with respect again, not with impertinence or pity. So Tranströmer gets the header, Auden the main text:
Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone,
Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone,
Silence the pianos and with muffled drum
Bring out the coffin, let the mourners come.
Let aeroplanes circle moaning overhead
Scribbling on the sky the message He Is Dead,
Put crepe bows round the white necks of the public doves,
Let the traffic policemen wear black cotton gloves.
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last for ever: I was wrong.
The stars are not wanted now: put out every one;
Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
Pour away the ocean and sweep up the wood.
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone,
Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone,
Silence the pianos and with muffled drum
Bring out the coffin, let the mourners come.
Let aeroplanes circle moaning overhead
Scribbling on the sky the message He Is Dead,
Put crepe bows round the white necks of the public doves,
Let the traffic policemen wear black cotton gloves.
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last for ever: I was wrong.
The stars are not wanted now: put out every one;
Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
Pour away the ocean and sweep up the wood.
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
Monday 3 October 2011
Just a Walker and a Parker
Just a very short "hat" as the French say to Walker for proving to be a really good fullback and for Parker for taking runs no one else could be bothered to take despite obvious cramps in both legs. Two very welcome additions to the team, yesterday a whole lot more welcome than the lazy Adebayor although he provided an assist. Four straight wins for Spurs and given the game in hand and the bizarrely difficult opening programme (six games played so far include Utd, City, Pool and the Gunners), we're in a good position.
Wednesday 14 September 2011
See these two cold fingers?
Up the bracket for you, Barca. You got what you deserved. The first for not starting the game on your toes, the second for not bothering to finish it off.
All credit to AC Milan staying in the game and for giving themselves a chance to punish those oh-so-humble-wannabies-that-really-are-the-most-pompus-team-around Barcelona.
One of my favourite sportsmen of all times is Bode Miller. Partly because of what happens 30 seconds into this clip, partly because of his simple response to the question why downhills was his favourite event: "I like to go straight".
Barcelona is the opposite of that. Combined with the teddybear image, they are the enemy.
All credit to AC Milan staying in the game and for giving themselves a chance to punish those oh-so-humble-wannabies-that-really-are-the-most-pompus-team-around Barcelona.
One of my favourite sportsmen of all times is Bode Miller. Partly because of what happens 30 seconds into this clip, partly because of his simple response to the question why downhills was his favourite event: "I like to go straight".
Barcelona is the opposite of that. Combined with the teddybear image, they are the enemy.
Friday 9 September 2011
Solo con te, sempre con te
Last out is Italy and Serie A.
The strike allowed us to await the closing of the transfer window, to sit down and analyse the squads. In particular in Italy that is important, as the clubs in general (and Genoa in particular) recently have developed a system of loans, partial ownerships and other arrangements that make a Korean chaebol look pretty straighforward.
Here's my prediction.
1. Milan. Stronger this season, in particular in defense where there are more alternatives and real fullbacks now. The absence of Mr. X means no real chance to challenge in Europe, but in a weakened Serie A they will be big favourites.
2. Inter. What can Gasperini do with this bunch? Inter was a team with more direction than any in the last few season. Last year there was no direction at all. It's a big squad, with a lot of good players, but perhaps not enough great players. Already a lot of injuries. And most of all, no Eto'o.
3. Juventus. The big signings did not happen, but it's time for Juve to have a decent season.
4. Lazio. Zarate failed to make an impact last year anyway. Lazio will continue to go strong. I hope they can focus on Europa league as well.
5. Roma. It certainly did not start well for Luis Enrique. And with the history of Spaniards in Italy, we need to be careful here. A team that could challenge for the title, but can also end up 7th.
6. Fiorentina. With focus on the league and the league only, and so many disappointments that pressure has fallen, Fiorentina is suddenly in a good position. Sinisa, look at this season as a free-kick attempt 10 metres outside the box.
7. Udinese. Always hard to predict. It's not so much about how much they will miss Sanchez as how long the winning spells will be in comparison to the losing spells.
8. Napoli. Surprisingly intact. But strong enough to handle champions league on the side, with six big games on the side? Important season for Napoli, need to convince the world they are not just a one-hit wonder.
9. Genoa. It's quite comical that Genoa has bought a player called Constant. Let's say they need a bit of that. With a new squad every year, and with most players co-owned somewhere else, it is hard to see Genoa establishing themselves as the top team they want to be. But they players with the capacuity, but not the team.
10. Cesena. Mutu! Quite a surprise, but if he uses his nose to find goals and not for other purposes, this could be exactly what Cesena needs. They play nice, free-flow football, but need to convert their chances.
11. Palermo. If it was any other team I would say that firing the new coach during pre-season would indicate that something is really wrong. In Palermo that is business as usual. But Palermo have lost players that cannot easily be replaced. A good youth academy, sure, but this season looks like a dip.
12. Parma. The year of the Giovinco? He is not a baby anymore, if it should happen for the formica atomica it should happen now.
13. Atalanta. Like the youth team they are, they tend to make a good start when they are back from serie B, and then slowly fall back. Or youth team? Actually more experienced then the other newcomers.
14. Catania. Just like a girl, the true look of the squad is more apparent without the Mascara. But Legrottaglie, if he gets fit, and Maxi Lopez, are significant acquisitions.
15. Cagliari.
16. Chievo. Underestimating Chievo is a tradition, can't just stop now.
17. Bologna. If they stay up it's thanks to di Vaio. As always
18. Lecce
19. Siena.
20. Novara. Can they surprise anyone?
The strike allowed us to await the closing of the transfer window, to sit down and analyse the squads. In particular in Italy that is important, as the clubs in general (and Genoa in particular) recently have developed a system of loans, partial ownerships and other arrangements that make a Korean chaebol look pretty straighforward.
Here's my prediction.
1. Milan. Stronger this season, in particular in defense where there are more alternatives and real fullbacks now. The absence of Mr. X means no real chance to challenge in Europe, but in a weakened Serie A they will be big favourites.
2. Inter. What can Gasperini do with this bunch? Inter was a team with more direction than any in the last few season. Last year there was no direction at all. It's a big squad, with a lot of good players, but perhaps not enough great players. Already a lot of injuries. And most of all, no Eto'o.
3. Juventus. The big signings did not happen, but it's time for Juve to have a decent season.
4. Lazio. Zarate failed to make an impact last year anyway. Lazio will continue to go strong. I hope they can focus on Europa league as well.
5. Roma. It certainly did not start well for Luis Enrique. And with the history of Spaniards in Italy, we need to be careful here. A team that could challenge for the title, but can also end up 7th.
6. Fiorentina. With focus on the league and the league only, and so many disappointments that pressure has fallen, Fiorentina is suddenly in a good position. Sinisa, look at this season as a free-kick attempt 10 metres outside the box.
7. Udinese. Always hard to predict. It's not so much about how much they will miss Sanchez as how long the winning spells will be in comparison to the losing spells.
8. Napoli. Surprisingly intact. But strong enough to handle champions league on the side, with six big games on the side? Important season for Napoli, need to convince the world they are not just a one-hit wonder.
9. Genoa. It's quite comical that Genoa has bought a player called Constant. Let's say they need a bit of that. With a new squad every year, and with most players co-owned somewhere else, it is hard to see Genoa establishing themselves as the top team they want to be. But they players with the capacuity, but not the team.
10. Cesena. Mutu! Quite a surprise, but if he uses his nose to find goals and not for other purposes, this could be exactly what Cesena needs. They play nice, free-flow football, but need to convert their chances.
11. Palermo. If it was any other team I would say that firing the new coach during pre-season would indicate that something is really wrong. In Palermo that is business as usual. But Palermo have lost players that cannot easily be replaced. A good youth academy, sure, but this season looks like a dip.
12. Parma. The year of the Giovinco? He is not a baby anymore, if it should happen for the formica atomica it should happen now.
13. Atalanta. Like the youth team they are, they tend to make a good start when they are back from serie B, and then slowly fall back. Or youth team? Actually more experienced then the other newcomers.
14. Catania. Just like a girl, the true look of the squad is more apparent without the Mascara. But Legrottaglie, if he gets fit, and Maxi Lopez, are significant acquisitions.
15. Cagliari.
16. Chievo. Underestimating Chievo is a tradition, can't just stop now.
17. Bologna. If they stay up it's thanks to di Vaio. As always
18. Lecce
19. Siena.
20. Novara. Can they surprise anyone?
Wednesday 7 September 2011
No academic quarter
Could be a thrilling ending to the Euro qualifyer. As I posted already in March, Denmark are in the best position to qualify as best runner up.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
Monday 29 August 2011
Esperando na janela
[Edit: Inter bought Forlan and therefore I took them out of the equation]
The transfer window is still open but time is running out. Who will act?
Quite a few big names are not settled yet. Are we sure that Tevez is staying with City? Will Sneijder go and if so what happens to Inter? Would it not make sense for Kaka to make a move? And will Spurs finally decide to let Modric go?
That are the really big names on the supply side. On top of that, of course Scott Parker needs to find a home in the Premiership rather than the Championship, but that is another level. Even further down, a bunch of tall strikers with dubious skills (Bentner, Crouch) are still looking for a home that will welcome them with open arms.
On the demand side, I think there is some worldwide consensus (with one possible dissident) that Arsenal need to spend. Sneijder and Kaka have been mentioned there, but what about Tevez?
Spurs need to shop too, and in particular if they are to lose Luca. Parker would be a welcome addition, but he doesn't really compare to Modric. A tough situation for Spurs, as even if they hold on to Modric there is a clear risk that he will have a so-so season.
Milan, yes, here Galliani will have lost quite a bit of credibility if there is no Mr. X - which seems to be the case. But Ganso is still to sign someone, I have not given up my hopes yet.
Örebro fans are waiting by the window too. And we wait...
The transfer window is still open but time is running out. Who will act?
Quite a few big names are not settled yet. Are we sure that Tevez is staying with City? Will Sneijder go and if so what happens to Inter? Would it not make sense for Kaka to make a move? And will Spurs finally decide to let Modric go?
That are the really big names on the supply side. On top of that, of course Scott Parker needs to find a home in the Premiership rather than the Championship, but that is another level. Even further down, a bunch of tall strikers with dubious skills (Bentner, Crouch) are still looking for a home that will welcome them with open arms.
On the demand side, I think there is some worldwide consensus (with one possible dissident) that Arsenal need to spend. Sneijder and Kaka have been mentioned there, but what about Tevez?
Spurs need to shop too, and in particular if they are to lose Luca. Parker would be a welcome addition, but he doesn't really compare to Modric. A tough situation for Spurs, as even if they hold on to Modric there is a clear risk that he will have a so-so season.
Milan, yes, here Galliani will have lost quite a bit of credibility if there is no Mr. X - which seems to be the case. But Ganso is still to sign someone, I have not given up my hopes yet.
Örebro fans are waiting by the window too. And we wait...
Saturday 27 August 2011
The year of the double Dutch?
I'm not gonna predict all Champions League and Europa League here.
But maybe a few comments on the draws in random order - leaving aside the Milan-Barca-Zlatan implications that we have already dealt with.
What else?
Group A with Bayern, Villareal, Man City and Napoli has rightly been dubbed the group of death. Any group with Man C would probably be called that, but joined also by one of the two strongest fourth seeds, Napoli (the other, even stronger, being Dortmund), it is indeed a strong group.
Manchester United and Benfica should go through in Group C, just like Milan and Barca should go through in their groups. Still. What beautiful football games. What memories. OK, I was not really on Wembley in 1968, but that Manchester United win is one of the classics. And Milan's thrashing in the deam final against Barcelona in 1994 still ranks as one of the most extatic football memories of all times.
The third clash of historic titans is Real-Ajax, but it''s not quite the same these days. And they never played each other in a final.
Arsenal-Dortmund has the potential to be one of the best games in the tournament. Shame it clashes with Milan-Barca: no one, including me, will watch.
Europa League does not provide the same excitement. But I was surprised over the lack of exciting draws. Atlectico, Udinese, Rennes is a fine group though.
Otherwise Europa League has a tendency of being dominated by a different league every year. We had Germany, we had Ukraine, and last year we very much had Portgual. Who's up?
England have four teams, but that is too boring. Holland is a great candidate, I would not be surprised if at the knockout stage we have four Dutch teams that all have the potential to progress even further. Belgium has made a good tournament so far but have tougher draws. So Holland is my bet. Remember that next spring.
But maybe a few comments on the draws in random order - leaving aside the Milan-Barca-Zlatan implications that we have already dealt with.
What else?
Group A with Bayern, Villareal, Man City and Napoli has rightly been dubbed the group of death. Any group with Man C would probably be called that, but joined also by one of the two strongest fourth seeds, Napoli (the other, even stronger, being Dortmund), it is indeed a strong group.
Manchester United and Benfica should go through in Group C, just like Milan and Barca should go through in their groups. Still. What beautiful football games. What memories. OK, I was not really on Wembley in 1968, but that Manchester United win is one of the classics. And Milan's thrashing in the deam final against Barcelona in 1994 still ranks as one of the most extatic football memories of all times.
The third clash of historic titans is Real-Ajax, but it''s not quite the same these days. And they never played each other in a final.
Arsenal-Dortmund has the potential to be one of the best games in the tournament. Shame it clashes with Milan-Barca: no one, including me, will watch.
Europa League does not provide the same excitement. But I was surprised over the lack of exciting draws. Atlectico, Udinese, Rennes is a fine group though.
Otherwise Europa League has a tendency of being dominated by a different league every year. We had Germany, we had Ukraine, and last year we very much had Portgual. Who's up?
England have four teams, but that is too boring. Holland is a great candidate, I would not be surprised if at the knockout stage we have four Dutch teams that all have the potential to progress even further. Belgium has made a good tournament so far but have tougher draws. So Holland is my bet. Remember that next spring.
Visca, I s'pouse
Not much time here si I'll be brief, also knowing that when it comes to la liga - which I still like to call Primera Division - less is more from my side.
1 Barcelona. They actually look stronger than last year. So hard to go another way.
2 Real Madrid. Which makes Real number two.
3 Sevilla. Think they can benefit from not playing in Europe, building on a strong team with a good coach.
4 Valencia. Did Mata's departure kill Valencia's prospects? Maybe not, they have lived through player departures before.
5 Bilbao. Keeps on challenging. A stable team that now needs to focus also on Europa League.
6 Malaga. Exciting transfer market. But can take sometime before Malaga is a stable top team.
7 Villareal. Not sure they can do well in both CL and the league. But I have underestimated them before.
8 Atletico. Impressed in the Europa League qualifyer but still looks that this could be quite a horrid season. I will stop there.
9 Sporting Gijon
10 Mallorca
11 Espanyol
12 Betis
13 Getafe
14 Racing Santander
15 Real Sociedad
16 Osasuna
17 Real Zaragoza
18 Grenada
19 Levante
20 Rayo Vallecano
Friday 26 August 2011
Oh what can it mean?
A daydream believer he is, our Zlatan. And a homecoming king.
A Swedish journalist just dubbed Zlatan "the boy who was condemned to walk his life in circles". An elegant way of putting it. There is something very predestined about him. Wherever he goes, he wins the national title. Wherever he goes, he fails to win the Champions League. And wherever he goes, he will always come back to where he just were. Here's the story of Zlatan:
2001: leaves Malmö for Ajax, but claims that one day he will play for Inter.
2004: leaves Ajax for Juve
Autumn 2004: paired with Ajax in the Champions League group stage
2006: leaves Juve for Inter
Since Juve has been relegated, it takes a year before he gets a new re-union in "il derby d'Italia".
2009: leaves Inter for Barca with the motivation that he wants to win the Champions League
Autumn 2009: Paired with Inter in the Champions League group stage, and in the spring the two team face each other again in the seminfinal. Inter go on to win the whole tournament.
2010: leaves Barca for Milan
Back to the city where he became the most shining star in Serie A, but playing for the rival team. And oh, this is what happens four minutes into his first derby for Milan. Plus:
Autumn 2010: is paired with his old team Ajax and his old coach Mourinho in the Champions League group stage.
Autumn 2011: First, the biggest homecoming of them all. Then: paired with Barcelona (now Champions again) in the Champions League group stage. Camp Nou may not respond in the same way.
A Swedish journalist just dubbed Zlatan "the boy who was condemned to walk his life in circles". An elegant way of putting it. There is something very predestined about him. Wherever he goes, he wins the national title. Wherever he goes, he fails to win the Champions League. And wherever he goes, he will always come back to where he just were. Here's the story of Zlatan:
2001: leaves Malmö for Ajax, but claims that one day he will play for Inter.
2004: leaves Ajax for Juve
Autumn 2004: paired with Ajax in the Champions League group stage
2006: leaves Juve for Inter
Since Juve has been relegated, it takes a year before he gets a new re-union in "il derby d'Italia".
2009: leaves Inter for Barca with the motivation that he wants to win the Champions League
Autumn 2009: Paired with Inter in the Champions League group stage, and in the spring the two team face each other again in the seminfinal. Inter go on to win the whole tournament.
2010: leaves Barca for Milan
Back to the city where he became the most shining star in Serie A, but playing for the rival team. And oh, this is what happens four minutes into his first derby for Milan. Plus:
Autumn 2010: is paired with his old team Ajax and his old coach Mourinho in the Champions League group stage.
Autumn 2011: First, the biggest homecoming of them all. Then: paired with Barcelona (now Champions again) in the Champions League group stage. Camp Nou may not respond in the same way.
Thursday 25 August 2011
Great Balls of Fire II
Time for the Champions League draw.
First, to all Swedes that are depressed over Malmö not qualifying: be careful what you wish for. Even though Malmö convinced at home, they were utterly thrashed away to a team that will be ranked as one of the worst in the group stage. Imagine what would happen if Malmö got there. The squad is performing as a mid-table team in Sweden. I think we need a team that at least is the best in the country to represent us if we are ever to have a team in the Champions League again.
Example: Let's say Malmö would have qualified and would have been drawn against a mid-ranked team from all all seeding groups. That would mean a group consisting of, say, Bayern Munich, Benfica and Manchester City. Good luck.
Now Malmö will play in Europa League: the play offs are played tonight but let's say that if the big teams go through (and some of them are in serious trouble, an average group would consist of Sporting Lisbon, Celtic and Dinamo Bucharest. Tough, but possible. Swedbank Stadium will be similarly full, and Malmö will feel that they are there to move to the next level, not to act as a sand bag.
Now to the upcoming draw. I will not attempt to guess what UEFA will do to get the most exciting draw, but I note that my Milan had all reasons in the world to support Udinese last night. Not just because Serie A is slipping in the rankings, but also because Arsenal's qualification pushed Milan down to the group of second seeds.
Which means that Milan could face a group of Barca, Milan, Manchester City and Dortmund, for example. Best possible draw now would be Arsenal, Bate Borisov (what a night they had. Winning away to Sturm Graz and at the same time have UEFA declaring that Trabzonspor will replace Fenerhahce - pushing Bate Borisov up to the third seeds) and Otelul Galati.
Here are all the teams. Let's analyse more after the draw this afternoon.
First, to all Swedes that are depressed over Malmö not qualifying: be careful what you wish for. Even though Malmö convinced at home, they were utterly thrashed away to a team that will be ranked as one of the worst in the group stage. Imagine what would happen if Malmö got there. The squad is performing as a mid-table team in Sweden. I think we need a team that at least is the best in the country to represent us if we are ever to have a team in the Champions League again.
Example: Let's say Malmö would have qualified and would have been drawn against a mid-ranked team from all all seeding groups. That would mean a group consisting of, say, Bayern Munich, Benfica and Manchester City. Good luck.
Now Malmö will play in Europa League: the play offs are played tonight but let's say that if the big teams go through (and some of them are in serious trouble, an average group would consist of Sporting Lisbon, Celtic and Dinamo Bucharest. Tough, but possible. Swedbank Stadium will be similarly full, and Malmö will feel that they are there to move to the next level, not to act as a sand bag.
Now to the upcoming draw. I will not attempt to guess what UEFA will do to get the most exciting draw, but I note that my Milan had all reasons in the world to support Udinese last night. Not just because Serie A is slipping in the rankings, but also because Arsenal's qualification pushed Milan down to the group of second seeds.
Which means that Milan could face a group of Barca, Milan, Manchester City and Dortmund, for example. Best possible draw now would be Arsenal, Bate Borisov (what a night they had. Winning away to Sturm Graz and at the same time have UEFA declaring that Trabzonspor will replace Fenerhahce - pushing Bate Borisov up to the third seeds) and Otelul Galati.
Here are all the teams. Let's analyse more after the draw this afternoon.
| Manchester Utd |
| Barcelona |
| Chelsea |
| Bayern |
| Arsenal |
| Real Madrid |
| Porto |
| Inter |
| Milan |
| Lyon |
| Shaktar |
| Valencia |
| Benfica |
| Villareal |
| CSKA Moscow |
| Marseille |
| Zenit |
| Ajax |
| Leverkusen |
| Olympiakos |
| Manchester City |
| Lille |
| Basel |
| Bate Borisov |
| Dortmund |
| Napoli |
| Dinamo Zagreb |
| Apoel |
| Trabz |
| Genk |
| Plzen |
| Otelul Galati |
Tuesday 23 August 2011
Blame it on the bogeyman
I should have been full of confidence last night. Örebro on a winning streak at home to a team in the lower regions of the table, and Spurs building on the flying start to the season in the Europa League (5-0 away to Hearts) with a nothing to lose belated league opener on old Trafford against a team missing their so important centre backs.
If it wasn't for the fact that it was the night of horror and always destined to be. The night when the bogeyman was coming. Twice. Accompanied by a suitable thunderstorm outside, Mjällby first beat Örebro 2-0, tagged with Manchester United who 15 minutes later came out to beat Spurs 3-0.
Spurs' story with ManU is well known. Now eight consecutive losses and 25 games in a row without a win on Old Trafford. And counting. It's not only that. This is the stadium where the curse is so obvious that the powers that be cannot make us lose in a normal manner, but rather like this this (ref thought ball did not cross the line) or like that.
Cruel, but not as cruel as Örebro SK's story with Mjällby. I started seeing some Örebro games with my dad in the 1984 season. Not many, but we always won. In an eight-year-old's mind, that creates a certain logic and a sufficient statistical foundation for an expectation that that's they way it will always be. And Örebro really won many games that season, ending up winning the northern branch of the second division and qualifying for a play-off against little Mjällby. We lost the away game 1-0 but that did not bother me much. I would be there for the return game at home, we would sort this out. We would win 2-0, I was sure, I even pictured the goal scorers in my mind (Urban Hammar and Tommy Ståhl (!) would score). I still carry with me a bit of that emptiness that was my soul on the ride back home after a humiliating 3-0 defeat. The word Mjällby still makes me shiver.
It would take 21 years before we met again, in the second division. We won all four games in 2005 and 2006, we were promoted and I thought I never had to worry about Mjällby again. But then this village team made it to the top flight again, and it was obvious that the spell is still there. We lost at home in the league, we lost at home in the cup, we lost away. And this year, we lost away, and, that's right, last night we lost at home. 5-0 to the bogeyteam in 16 months' time.
And 5-0 to the bogeyman last night.
If it wasn't for the fact that it was the night of horror and always destined to be. The night when the bogeyman was coming. Twice. Accompanied by a suitable thunderstorm outside, Mjällby first beat Örebro 2-0, tagged with Manchester United who 15 minutes later came out to beat Spurs 3-0.
Spurs' story with ManU is well known. Now eight consecutive losses and 25 games in a row without a win on Old Trafford. And counting. It's not only that. This is the stadium where the curse is so obvious that the powers that be cannot make us lose in a normal manner, but rather like this this (ref thought ball did not cross the line) or like that.
Cruel, but not as cruel as Örebro SK's story with Mjällby. I started seeing some Örebro games with my dad in the 1984 season. Not many, but we always won. In an eight-year-old's mind, that creates a certain logic and a sufficient statistical foundation for an expectation that that's they way it will always be. And Örebro really won many games that season, ending up winning the northern branch of the second division and qualifying for a play-off against little Mjällby. We lost the away game 1-0 but that did not bother me much. I would be there for the return game at home, we would sort this out. We would win 2-0, I was sure, I even pictured the goal scorers in my mind (Urban Hammar and Tommy Ståhl (!) would score). I still carry with me a bit of that emptiness that was my soul on the ride back home after a humiliating 3-0 defeat. The word Mjällby still makes me shiver.
It would take 21 years before we met again, in the second division. We won all four games in 2005 and 2006, we were promoted and I thought I never had to worry about Mjällby again. But then this village team made it to the top flight again, and it was obvious that the spell is still there. We lost at home in the league, we lost at home in the cup, we lost away. And this year, we lost away, and, that's right, last night we lost at home. 5-0 to the bogeyteam in 16 months' time.
And 5-0 to the bogeyman last night.
Saturday 13 August 2011
Always always Man United
So here goes the prediction for Premier League 2011. No screamers here. Big caveat for the transfer market but for the moment I think very little will change except City will overtake Chelsea as the main challenger to United.
1. Manchester United. Still looking strongest. But also here a question mark on central midfield. Often outnumbered, do they have the players to cover up? And will De Gea do the job?
2. Manchester City. Looking more and more complete. This goes whether or not Tevez stays. Only question mark really is who to play next to de Jong on the central midfield. Not a great fan of Barry.
3. Chelsea. A few question marks, one being the right back where Ivanovic does not really press forward like he should. And Chelsea cannot expect Essien to do anything this year. And the biggest one: Torres. But there is quality in this team. And Villas-Boas is just destined to follow Mourinho's path. Will be interesting to follow.
4. Arsenal. Well, it's kind of relevant whether or not the two best players will stick around or not and if they will be replaced. Selling Fabregas and Nasri would of course bring a bit of money but it would take time before anyone could fill their shoes although Gervinho is an interesting alternative to Nasri. But this is not the downfall of Arsenal. But it may be a low before the team takes off again. So important to hold on to top 4. And a title, even the League Cup, would be most welcome for Wenger.
5. Tottenham. With Modric. Not without him.
6. Liverpool. I'm not excited about what King Kenny has done over summer but I like the idea of Kuyt, Suarez and Carroll. Liverpool will certainly be better than last autumn, and comparable to their spring season.
7. Everton. Moyes get to work with the same squad as last year. Question marks on the goal scoring abilities and of course Cahill is crucial but often injured. But absent injuries, Everton will be at least as strong as last year.
8. Stoke. Going strong. Count on Woodgate getting injured very soon so a very uninfluential transfer season.
9. Sunderland. Aggressive transfer season. Could go even better but may need some time to get the act together.
10. Fulham. It's soon time for Fulham to bring younger players in. I think this is the last season that the current squad can deliver. And I like Jol.
11. Bolton. If the rather old pair up front can stay fit, the positive atmosphere created by one of the best coaches in Premier League will keep them safe this year.
12. Aston Villa. Now this is a team in the midst of its downfall. Given is a good replacement for Friedel, but he is not as good as Friedel. Same thing with N'Zogbia over Young. And Reo-Coker has not been replaced at all. A thinner squad very sensitive to injuries and a very much question coached. My prediction is actually pretty optimistic.
13. West Brom. This is a job Hogson knows how to do.
14. Newcastle. Unfortunaltely not looking any stronger this year. Nolan will be greatly missed and Carrol was never replaced. Who will score the goals?
15. Norwich. Have very little knowledge here but seem to have prepared themselves well in order to stay up.
16. Wolverhampton. Logically they stayed up long enough now. But good enough to stay just out of the relegation zone.
17. Queens Park Rangers. Unexpectedly quiet on the market despite financial power. Clever or cheap?
18. Blackburn. Pretty much the same squad as last year. And that was really just about enough. Is this it?
19. Wigan. I always underestimate them but with an even weaker team this year this can't work. Or can it?
20. Swansea. After Tottenham the team I will support the most this season.. But I don't really believe in it.
1. Manchester United. Still looking strongest. But also here a question mark on central midfield. Often outnumbered, do they have the players to cover up? And will De Gea do the job?
2. Manchester City. Looking more and more complete. This goes whether or not Tevez stays. Only question mark really is who to play next to de Jong on the central midfield. Not a great fan of Barry.
3. Chelsea. A few question marks, one being the right back where Ivanovic does not really press forward like he should. And Chelsea cannot expect Essien to do anything this year. And the biggest one: Torres. But there is quality in this team. And Villas-Boas is just destined to follow Mourinho's path. Will be interesting to follow.
4. Arsenal. Well, it's kind of relevant whether or not the two best players will stick around or not and if they will be replaced. Selling Fabregas and Nasri would of course bring a bit of money but it would take time before anyone could fill their shoes although Gervinho is an interesting alternative to Nasri. But this is not the downfall of Arsenal. But it may be a low before the team takes off again. So important to hold on to top 4. And a title, even the League Cup, would be most welcome for Wenger.
5. Tottenham. With Modric. Not without him.
6. Liverpool. I'm not excited about what King Kenny has done over summer but I like the idea of Kuyt, Suarez and Carroll. Liverpool will certainly be better than last autumn, and comparable to their spring season.
7. Everton. Moyes get to work with the same squad as last year. Question marks on the goal scoring abilities and of course Cahill is crucial but often injured. But absent injuries, Everton will be at least as strong as last year.
8. Stoke. Going strong. Count on Woodgate getting injured very soon so a very uninfluential transfer season.
9. Sunderland. Aggressive transfer season. Could go even better but may need some time to get the act together.
10. Fulham. It's soon time for Fulham to bring younger players in. I think this is the last season that the current squad can deliver. And I like Jol.
11. Bolton. If the rather old pair up front can stay fit, the positive atmosphere created by one of the best coaches in Premier League will keep them safe this year.
12. Aston Villa. Now this is a team in the midst of its downfall. Given is a good replacement for Friedel, but he is not as good as Friedel. Same thing with N'Zogbia over Young. And Reo-Coker has not been replaced at all. A thinner squad very sensitive to injuries and a very much question coached. My prediction is actually pretty optimistic.
13. West Brom. This is a job Hogson knows how to do.
14. Newcastle. Unfortunaltely not looking any stronger this year. Nolan will be greatly missed and Carrol was never replaced. Who will score the goals?
15. Norwich. Have very little knowledge here but seem to have prepared themselves well in order to stay up.
16. Wolverhampton. Logically they stayed up long enough now. But good enough to stay just out of the relegation zone.
17. Queens Park Rangers. Unexpectedly quiet on the market despite financial power. Clever or cheap?
18. Blackburn. Pretty much the same squad as last year. And that was really just about enough. Is this it?
19. Wigan. I always underestimate them but with an even weaker team this year this can't work. Or can it?
20. Swansea. After Tottenham the team I will support the most this season.. But I don't really believe in it.
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