Monday 29 August 2011

Esperando na janela

[Edit: Inter bought Forlan and therefore I took them out of the equation]

The transfer window is still open but time is running out.  Who will act?

Quite a few big names are not settled yet. Are we sure that Tevez is staying with City? Will Sneijder go and if so what happens to Inter? Would it not make sense for Kaka to make a move? And will Spurs finally decide to let Modric go?

That are the really big names on the supply side.  On top of that, of course Scott Parker needs to find a home in the Premiership rather than the Championship, but that is another level. Even further down, a bunch of tall strikers with dubious skills (Bentner, Crouch) are still looking for a home that will welcome them with open arms.

On the demand side, I think there is some worldwide consensus (with one possible dissident) that Arsenal need to spend.  Sneijder and Kaka have been mentioned there, but what about Tevez?

Spurs need to shop too, and in particular if they are to lose Luca. Parker would be a welcome addition, but he doesn't really compare to Modric.  A tough situation for Spurs, as even if they hold on to Modric there is a clear risk that he will have a so-so season.

Milan, yes, here Galliani will have lost quite a bit of credibility if there is no Mr. X - which seems to be the case.  But Ganso is still to sign someone, I have not given up my hopes yet.

Örebro fans are waiting by the window too.  And we wait...

Saturday 27 August 2011

The year of the double Dutch?

I'm not gonna predict all Champions League and Europa League here.

But maybe a few comments on the draws in random order - leaving aside the Milan-Barca-Zlatan implications that we have already dealt with.

What else?

Group A with  Bayern, Villareal, Man City and Napoli has rightly been dubbed the group of death.  Any group with Man C would probably be called that, but joined also by one of the two strongest fourth seeds, Napoli (the other, even stronger, being Dortmund), it is indeed a strong group.

Manchester United and Benfica should go through in Group C, just like Milan and Barca should go through in their groups. Still. What beautiful football games.  What memories.  OK, I was not really on Wembley in 1968, but that Manchester United win is one of the classics.  And Milan's thrashing in the deam final against Barcelona in 1994 still ranks as one of the most extatic football memories of all times.

The third clash of historic titans is Real-Ajax, but it''s not quite the same these days. And they never played each other in a final.

Arsenal-Dortmund has the potential to be one of the best games in the tournament.  Shame it clashes with Milan-Barca: no one, including me, will watch.

Europa League does not provide the same excitement.  But I was surprised over the lack of exciting draws.  Atlectico, Udinese, Rennes is a fine group though.

Otherwise Europa League has a tendency of being dominated by a different league every year.  We had Germany, we had Ukraine, and last year we very much had Portgual.  Who's up?

England have four teams, but that is too boring.  Holland is a great candidate, I would not be surprised if at the knockout stage we have four Dutch teams that all have the potential to progress even further. Belgium has made a good tournament so far but have tougher draws.  So Holland is my bet. Remember that next spring.

Visca, I s'pouse


Not much time here si I'll be brief, also knowing that when it comes to la liga - which I still like to call Primera Division - less is more from my side.


1 Barcelona. They actually look stronger than last year. So hard to go another way.
2 Real Madrid. Which makes Real number two.
3 Sevilla. Think they can benefit from not playing in Europe, building on a strong team with a good coach.
4 Valencia. Did Mata's departure kill Valencia's prospects? Maybe not, they have lived through player departures before.
5 Bilbao. Keeps on challenging. A stable team that now needs to focus also on Europa League.
6 Malaga. Exciting transfer market. But can take sometime before Malaga is a stable top team.
7 Villareal. Not sure they can do well in both CL and the league.  But I have underestimated them before.
8 Atletico. Impressed in the Europa League qualifyer but still looks that this could be quite a horrid season.  I will stop there.
9 Sporting Gijon
10 Mallorca
11 Espanyol
12 Betis
13 Getafe
14 Racing Santander
15 Real Sociedad
16 Osasuna
17 Real Zaragoza
18 Grenada
19 Levante
20 Rayo Vallecano

Friday 26 August 2011

Oh what can it mean?

A daydream believer he is, our Zlatan. And a homecoming king.

A Swedish journalist just dubbed Zlatan "the boy who was condemned to walk his life in circles". An elegant way of putting it.  There is something very predestined about him.  Wherever he goes, he wins the national title.  Wherever he goes, he fails to win the Champions League.  And wherever he goes, he will always come back to where he just were.  Here's the story of Zlatan:

2001: leaves Malmö for Ajax, but claims that one day he will play for Inter.
2004: leaves Ajax for Juve
Autumn 2004: paired with Ajax in the Champions League group stage
2006: leaves Juve for Inter
Since Juve has been relegated, it takes a year before he gets a new re-union in "il derby d'Italia".
2009: leaves Inter for Barca with the motivation that he wants to win the Champions League
Autumn 2009: Paired with Inter in the Champions League group stage, and in the spring the two team face each other again in the seminfinal. Inter go on to win the whole tournament.
2010: leaves Barca for Milan
Back to the city where he became the most shining star in Serie A, but playing for the rival team. And oh, this is what happens four minutes into his first derby for Milan. Plus:
Autumn 2010: is paired with his old team Ajax and his old coach Mourinho in the Champions League group stage.
Autumn 2011: First, the biggest homecoming of them all.  Then: paired with Barcelona (now Champions again) in the Champions League group stage.  Camp Nou may not respond in the same way.

Thursday 25 August 2011

Great Balls of Fire II

Time for the Champions League draw.

First, to all Swedes that are depressed over Malmö not qualifying: be careful what you wish for. Even though Malmö convinced at home, they were utterly thrashed away to a team that will be ranked as one of the worst in the group stage.  Imagine what would happen if Malmö got there. The squad is performing as a mid-table team in Sweden. I think we need a team that at least is the best in the country to represent us if we are ever to have a team in the Champions League again.

Example: Let's say Malmö would have qualified and would have been drawn against a mid-ranked team from all all seeding groups. That would mean a group consisting of, say, Bayern Munich, Benfica and Manchester City. Good luck.

Now Malmö will play in Europa League: the play offs are played tonight but let's say that if the big teams go through (and some of them are in serious trouble, an average group would consist of Sporting Lisbon, Celtic and Dinamo Bucharest. Tough, but possible. Swedbank Stadium will be similarly full, and Malmö will feel that they are there to move to the next level, not to act as a sand bag.

Now to the upcoming draw. I will not attempt to guess what UEFA will do to get the most exciting draw, but I note that my Milan had all reasons in the world to support Udinese last night. Not just because Serie A is slipping in the rankings, but also because Arsenal's qualification pushed Milan down to the group of second seeds.

Which means that Milan could face a group of Barca, Milan, Manchester City and Dortmund, for example. Best possible draw now would be Arsenal, Bate Borisov (what a night they had. Winning away to Sturm Graz and at the same time have UEFA declaring that Trabzonspor will replace Fenerhahce - pushing Bate Borisov up to the third seeds) and Otelul Galati.

Here are all the teams. Let's analyse more after the draw this afternoon.
Manchester Utd
Barcelona
Chelsea
Bayern
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Porto
Inter
Milan
Lyon
Shaktar
Valencia
Benfica
Villareal
CSKA Moscow
Marseille
Zenit
Ajax
Leverkusen
Olympiakos
Manchester City
Lille
Basel
Bate Borisov
Dortmund
Napoli
Dinamo Zagreb
Apoel
Trabz
Genk
Plzen
Otelul Galati

Tuesday 23 August 2011

Blame it on the bogeyman

I should have been full of confidence last night. Örebro on a winning streak at home to a team in the lower regions of the table, and Spurs building on the flying start to the season in the Europa League (5-0 away to Hearts) with a nothing to lose belated league opener on old Trafford against a team missing their so important centre backs.

If it wasn't for the fact that it was the night of horror and always destined to be. The night when the bogeyman was coming. Twice. Accompanied by a suitable thunderstorm outside, Mjällby first beat Örebro 2-0, tagged with Manchester United who 15 minutes later came out to beat Spurs 3-0.

Spurs' story with ManU is well known. Now eight consecutive losses and 25 games in a row without a win on Old Trafford. And counting. It's not only that.  This is the stadium where the curse is so obvious that the powers that be cannot make us lose in a normal manner, but rather like this this (ref thought ball did not cross the line) or like that.

Cruel, but not as cruel as Örebro SK's story with Mjällby. I started seeing some Örebro games with my dad in the 1984 season. Not many, but we always won. In an eight-year-old's mind, that creates a certain logic and a sufficient statistical foundation for an expectation that that's they way it will always be. And Örebro really won many games that season, ending up winning the northern branch of the second division and qualifying for a play-off against little Mjällby. We lost the away game 1-0 but that did not bother me much. I would be there for the return game at home, we would sort this out. We would win 2-0, I was sure, I even pictured the goal scorers in my mind (Urban Hammar and Tommy Ståhl (!) would score). I still carry with me a bit of that emptiness that was my soul on the ride back home after a humiliating 3-0 defeat. The word Mjällby still makes me shiver.

It would take 21 years before we met again, in the second division. We won all four games in 2005 and 2006, we were promoted and I thought I never had to worry about Mjällby again. But then this village team made it to the top flight again, and it was obvious that the spell is still there. We lost at home in the league, we lost at home in the cup, we lost away. And this year, we lost away, and, that's right, last night we lost at home. 5-0 to the bogeyteam in 16 months' time.

And 5-0 to the bogeyman last night.





Saturday 13 August 2011

Always always Man United

So here goes the prediction for Premier League 2011.  No screamers here.  Big caveat for the transfer market but for the moment I think very little will change except City will overtake Chelsea as the main challenger to United.

1. Manchester United.  Still looking strongest. But also here a question mark on central midfield.  Often outnumbered, do they have the players to cover up? And will De Gea do the job?

2. Manchester City.  Looking more and more complete.  This goes whether or not Tevez stays.  Only question mark really is who to play next to de Jong on the central midfield.  Not a great fan of Barry.

3. Chelsea.  A few question marks, one being the right back where Ivanovic does not really press forward like he should.  And Chelsea cannot expect Essien to do anything this year.  And the biggest one: Torres. But there is quality in this team.  And Villas-Boas is just destined to follow Mourinho's path.  Will be interesting to follow.

4. Arsenal.  Well, it's kind of relevant whether or not the two best players will stick around or not and if they will be replaced.  Selling Fabregas and Nasri would of course bring a bit of money but it would take time before anyone could fill their shoes although Gervinho is an interesting alternative to Nasri.  But this is not the downfall of Arsenal.  But it may be a low before the team takes off again.  So important to hold on to top 4.  And a title, even the League Cup, would be most welcome for Wenger.

5. Tottenham.  With Modric.  Not without him.

6. Liverpool.  I'm not excited about what King Kenny has done over summer but I like the idea of Kuyt, Suarez and Carroll.  Liverpool will certainly be better than last autumn, and comparable to their spring season.

7. Everton.  Moyes get to work with the same squad as last year.  Question marks on the goal scoring abilities and of course Cahill is crucial but often injured.  But absent injuries, Everton will be at least as strong as last year.

8. Stoke.  Going strong.  Count on Woodgate getting injured very soon so a very uninfluential transfer season.

9. Sunderland.  Aggressive transfer season.  Could go even better but may need some time to get the act together.

10. Fulham. It's soon time for Fulham to bring younger players in.  I think this is the last season that the current squad can deliver.  And I like Jol.

11. Bolton.  If the rather old pair up front can stay fit, the positive atmosphere created by one of the best coaches in Premier League will keep them safe this year.

12. Aston Villa. Now this is a team in the midst of its downfall.  Given is a good replacement for Friedel, but he is not as good as Friedel.  Same thing with N'Zogbia over Young.  And Reo-Coker has not been replaced at all.  A thinner squad very sensitive to injuries and a very much question coached.  My prediction is actually pretty optimistic.

13. West Brom.  This is a job Hogson knows how to do.

14. Newcastle.  Unfortunaltely not looking any stronger this year.  Nolan will be greatly missed and Carrol was never replaced.  Who will score the goals?

15. Norwich.  Have very little knowledge here but seem to have prepared themselves well in order to stay up.

16. Wolverhampton.  Logically they stayed up long enough now.  But good enough to stay just out of the relegation zone.

17. Queens Park Rangers.  Unexpectedly quiet on the market despite financial power.  Clever or cheap?

18. Blackburn.  Pretty much the same squad as last year.  And that was really just about enough.  Is this it?

19. Wigan.  I always underestimate them but with an even weaker team this year this can't work.  Or can it?

20. Swansea.  After Tottenham the team I will support the most this season.. But I don't really believe in it.

Tuesday 9 August 2011

1-0... and we f*** it up. 0-1... and we f*** it up.

In the midst of wins and good news for Örebro, here is a real problem I have flagged before.

We cannot win games where the opponent team scores the first goal. We don't even draw. If the other team takes the lead, we lose.  It was the case last year, it is the case this year.

What's worse, this year we lose games even when we take the lead.  We have 29 points out of 20 games.  If we would have played "first goal wins" instead, we would have gathered no less than 43 points.  I have made no apple-to-apple analysis with the other teams, but Helsingborg is currently top of the table with 45 points (and they would have one point less against us with my way of calculating).

In other words. We could have been a contender instead of bumming in the middle of the table if we had the winning mentality where you protect leads and turn around deficits in the goalscoring sheet.  We are apparently incapable of both.

How do we turn this around? I asked the coach that question in a chat last week.  He acknowledged that to turn around games you need a winning mentality "and we are not there... yet!".  OK. But how do we get there? Obviously you need a positive cycle, getting used to winning no matter what, but we need to start somewhere.  Here are a few ways of doing it:
  • Creating winning mentality.  It's good not to know your own limits. Just because the other team is better does not mean they will win. We lost to worse teams this year just because they did not know they were worse. We tried to tell them, they did not listen.  We should have shown them and they would have no choice.  How do we get there? Team psychologist? Maybe, if the coach feels he cannot create that mentality himself.
  • Up the team mentality.  A team should be like family.  It's easy to break a bunch of twigs if you do it one by one, impossible if they are tied together.  It should be us against the rest of the world, always, when we're on the pitch.
  • Buy winning mentality.  An army does not work with a general and foot soldiers only.  You need sergeants and captains as intermediaries.  If you can find home-grown ones, perfect.  If not, there are mercenaries for hire.
  • Pro-active coaching.  Leaving the mental ground, the coaching is obviously important too.  Last year, we were excellent at defending leads.  This year, we have been pretty good at it in when we have started with a more attacking midfield and Kihlberg on the bench, only to get Kihlberg into the game once we have taken the lead.  Four times we did it this season, four times we won.  Still, in most cases he starts.  Against Kalmar, we had about 80% of the possession but did not create goal scoring opportunities.  Still, there was no chance of a game plan.
  • Improve fitness.  This could be a reason, but I doubt it.  Paulinho is the only fatzo on the team and even he starts to look fitter.
Our coach 6-10 Boström has just signed a new contract.  I'm one of those who are glad he did but I hope he can work on these aspects because I truly believe that the other pieces are in place for us to challenge for the title of the miserable league called allsvenskan.  I hope he takes that challenge seriously.  We do.

Tuesday 2 August 2011

...and they lived happily ever after

A month and a half ago I wrote about our MVP: "When crying over losing Bedoya (probably) and Almebäck, we should not forget that our North and South, our East and West, our working week and Sundfay rest, is sitting on an expiring contract with a salary that is far too low.  Nordin loves Örebro SK.  Please love him back or you may lose him."

Today Nordin Gerzic signed a 5-year contract with us.  No surprise the sun is shining.  There is no room for clouds in the sky.

Needless to say Nordin will be a very popular man on Behrn Arena on Sunday.

Thank you, Nordin, for loving us.  Thank you, ÖSK, for loving him back.