Up the bracket for you, Barca. You got what you deserved. The first for not starting the game on your toes, the second for not bothering to finish it off.
All credit to AC Milan staying in the game and for giving themselves a chance to punish those oh-so-humble-wannabies-that-really-are-the-most-pompus-team-around Barcelona.
One of my favourite sportsmen of all times is Bode Miller. Partly because of what happens 30 seconds into this clip, partly because of his simple response to the question why downhills was his favourite event: "I like to go straight".
Barcelona is the opposite of that. Combined with the teddybear image, they are the enemy.
Wednesday 14 September 2011
Friday 9 September 2011
Solo con te, sempre con te
Last out is Italy and Serie A.
The strike allowed us to await the closing of the transfer window, to sit down and analyse the squads. In particular in Italy that is important, as the clubs in general (and Genoa in particular) recently have developed a system of loans, partial ownerships and other arrangements that make a Korean chaebol look pretty straighforward.
Here's my prediction.
1. Milan. Stronger this season, in particular in defense where there are more alternatives and real fullbacks now. The absence of Mr. X means no real chance to challenge in Europe, but in a weakened Serie A they will be big favourites.
2. Inter. What can Gasperini do with this bunch? Inter was a team with more direction than any in the last few season. Last year there was no direction at all. It's a big squad, with a lot of good players, but perhaps not enough great players. Already a lot of injuries. And most of all, no Eto'o.
3. Juventus. The big signings did not happen, but it's time for Juve to have a decent season.
4. Lazio. Zarate failed to make an impact last year anyway. Lazio will continue to go strong. I hope they can focus on Europa league as well.
5. Roma. It certainly did not start well for Luis Enrique. And with the history of Spaniards in Italy, we need to be careful here. A team that could challenge for the title, but can also end up 7th.
6. Fiorentina. With focus on the league and the league only, and so many disappointments that pressure has fallen, Fiorentina is suddenly in a good position. Sinisa, look at this season as a free-kick attempt 10 metres outside the box.
7. Udinese. Always hard to predict. It's not so much about how much they will miss Sanchez as how long the winning spells will be in comparison to the losing spells.
8. Napoli. Surprisingly intact. But strong enough to handle champions league on the side, with six big games on the side? Important season for Napoli, need to convince the world they are not just a one-hit wonder.
9. Genoa. It's quite comical that Genoa has bought a player called Constant. Let's say they need a bit of that. With a new squad every year, and with most players co-owned somewhere else, it is hard to see Genoa establishing themselves as the top team they want to be. But they players with the capacuity, but not the team.
10. Cesena. Mutu! Quite a surprise, but if he uses his nose to find goals and not for other purposes, this could be exactly what Cesena needs. They play nice, free-flow football, but need to convert their chances.
11. Palermo. If it was any other team I would say that firing the new coach during pre-season would indicate that something is really wrong. In Palermo that is business as usual. But Palermo have lost players that cannot easily be replaced. A good youth academy, sure, but this season looks like a dip.
12. Parma. The year of the Giovinco? He is not a baby anymore, if it should happen for the formica atomica it should happen now.
13. Atalanta. Like the youth team they are, they tend to make a good start when they are back from serie B, and then slowly fall back. Or youth team? Actually more experienced then the other newcomers.
14. Catania. Just like a girl, the true look of the squad is more apparent without the Mascara. But Legrottaglie, if he gets fit, and Maxi Lopez, are significant acquisitions.
15. Cagliari.
16. Chievo. Underestimating Chievo is a tradition, can't just stop now.
17. Bologna. If they stay up it's thanks to di Vaio. As always
18. Lecce
19. Siena.
20. Novara. Can they surprise anyone?
The strike allowed us to await the closing of the transfer window, to sit down and analyse the squads. In particular in Italy that is important, as the clubs in general (and Genoa in particular) recently have developed a system of loans, partial ownerships and other arrangements that make a Korean chaebol look pretty straighforward.
Here's my prediction.
1. Milan. Stronger this season, in particular in defense where there are more alternatives and real fullbacks now. The absence of Mr. X means no real chance to challenge in Europe, but in a weakened Serie A they will be big favourites.
2. Inter. What can Gasperini do with this bunch? Inter was a team with more direction than any in the last few season. Last year there was no direction at all. It's a big squad, with a lot of good players, but perhaps not enough great players. Already a lot of injuries. And most of all, no Eto'o.
3. Juventus. The big signings did not happen, but it's time for Juve to have a decent season.
4. Lazio. Zarate failed to make an impact last year anyway. Lazio will continue to go strong. I hope they can focus on Europa league as well.
5. Roma. It certainly did not start well for Luis Enrique. And with the history of Spaniards in Italy, we need to be careful here. A team that could challenge for the title, but can also end up 7th.
6. Fiorentina. With focus on the league and the league only, and so many disappointments that pressure has fallen, Fiorentina is suddenly in a good position. Sinisa, look at this season as a free-kick attempt 10 metres outside the box.
7. Udinese. Always hard to predict. It's not so much about how much they will miss Sanchez as how long the winning spells will be in comparison to the losing spells.
8. Napoli. Surprisingly intact. But strong enough to handle champions league on the side, with six big games on the side? Important season for Napoli, need to convince the world they are not just a one-hit wonder.
9. Genoa. It's quite comical that Genoa has bought a player called Constant. Let's say they need a bit of that. With a new squad every year, and with most players co-owned somewhere else, it is hard to see Genoa establishing themselves as the top team they want to be. But they players with the capacuity, but not the team.
10. Cesena. Mutu! Quite a surprise, but if he uses his nose to find goals and not for other purposes, this could be exactly what Cesena needs. They play nice, free-flow football, but need to convert their chances.
11. Palermo. If it was any other team I would say that firing the new coach during pre-season would indicate that something is really wrong. In Palermo that is business as usual. But Palermo have lost players that cannot easily be replaced. A good youth academy, sure, but this season looks like a dip.
12. Parma. The year of the Giovinco? He is not a baby anymore, if it should happen for the formica atomica it should happen now.
13. Atalanta. Like the youth team they are, they tend to make a good start when they are back from serie B, and then slowly fall back. Or youth team? Actually more experienced then the other newcomers.
14. Catania. Just like a girl, the true look of the squad is more apparent without the Mascara. But Legrottaglie, if he gets fit, and Maxi Lopez, are significant acquisitions.
15. Cagliari.
16. Chievo. Underestimating Chievo is a tradition, can't just stop now.
17. Bologna. If they stay up it's thanks to di Vaio. As always
18. Lecce
19. Siena.
20. Novara. Can they surprise anyone?
Wednesday 7 September 2011
No academic quarter
Could be a thrilling ending to the Euro qualifyer. As I posted already in March, Denmark are in the best position to qualify as best runner up.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
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