It has always been easy to like a guy like Dawson. A nice guy, loyal to the club, who always gives his everything. But it is not until last season he has actually proved to be a class defender. And last night, he took another step. Dawson held mighty Zlatan for 90 minutes, and the way this game was played, at least in the first half, Milan would be in the quarterfinal if he hadn't. Gallas and Sandro were great too, but it was Dawson that took Spurs to this quarterfinal. I am happy for him and I now hope Spurs gets even further. What are the chances of a semifinal? In my view, 40.1%. This is how I got there:
Assuming there are no "hot and cold balls" involved in the draw, Spurs have 1/7 chance of playing the other teams. 3 other teams are qualified already, and there is thus a 14.3% chance/risk of playing those teams. The liklihood of playing against and winning against those teams I estimate to:
Barcelona: 14.3% x 15%=2.1%
Shaktar: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%
Schalke: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%
Eight other teams may progress to the quarters. There we have to include an estimate of the chance of that happening. I get to the following conclusions:
Chelsea (99% chance of progressing): 14.1% x 40%=5.7%
FC Copenhagen (1% chance of progressing): 0.1% x 80%=0.1%
Man Utd (80% chance of progressing): 11.4% x 30%=3.4%
O Marseille (20% chance of progressing): 2.9% x 60%=1.7%
Real Madrid (85% chance of progressing): 12.1% x 25%=3.0%
Lyon (15% chance of progressing): 2.1% x 60%=1.3%
Bayern (90% chance of progressing): 12.9% x 50%=6.4%
Inter (10% chance of progressing): 1.4% x 45%=0.6%
In total, 40.1%.
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