A couple of weeks ago, Örebro SK announced the target for the year. Top 3. I would have formulated it as follows. "Örebro SK should challenge for the championship title by claiming more than 60 points. It should challenge for the cup title and at least progress to the third round of the Europa League qualififyers". That's how good we are and we should settle for nothing less.
This is the introduction for my Allsvenskan predictions for 2011. I usually do not overestimate Örebro, at least not by much. And I have never ever predicted them in the position where I predict them this year.
For those of you who aren't too familiar with the beloved allsvenskan, you should know that this is a tight championship and inherently difficult to predict. There are a few rules though:
- After 7 rounds all newspapes will claim that this year's edition is "tighter than ever"
- The champions will not defend the title
- Everyone will fear the summer transfer window but in reality it is rarely decisive
Allsvenskan
Top 5 - the title challengers
1 Örebro SK – I have weighed the squad of the five teams that could win it, and this is what I get to. Örebro have the best squad. I feel lightheaded, but if I need to pick a winner I will go with Örebro. The caveat is really the summer transfer season, but I just told you it is rarely decisive. My prediction is based on us losing no more than one player over summer, and that we get paid well for him so that we can go for an immediate replacement. Bedoya looks the most likely to go, but Almebäck’s displays with the national team could trigger the attention of for example the top teams of the Dutch League. If we lose both, we will feel shakier but my feeling is the club management knows what it’s doing.
2 Malmö FF – Last time Malmö won they became the favourites for a few consecutive years, and failed every time. What will happen this time? A strong squad but a loss-making club. How will the youngsters cope with Champions League qualifiers? They will be up there for sure, but they will lose more points then last year now that the focus gets divided. And the uncertainty of coach Roland Nilsson (expected to take over FC Copenhagen this summer) and the economy (money in the bank still but very red figures in the books) does not help. Daniel Andersson cannot carry the whole team on his shoulders. On top of that, big question mark for Yago in central defense. And big vulnerability to summer transfers too, in particular Larsson and Molins seem likely to go.
3 Elfsborg – Have become a regular in the top 4 but given the strength of the squad, that is an underachievement. Don’t see them improving over 2010, although player by player they have a team that should have one every title the last 4-5 years. But why would it happen this year, when the team has become weaker? Avdic was great last year, and is replaced by two bench players of doubtful quality. Elm was never a top player even in Kalmar. Why has he become a star because of an utterly failed spell at Fulham?
4 IFK Göteborg – In my view a bigger under-achiever than AIK last year. Let’s see if they can avoid a raft of injuries this year. If they do, there is enough talent in the squad.
5 Helsingborg – A team that wins most games by one goal can soon start losing them by one if they lose their backbone. Ask AIK. Will be vulnerable in central midfield without Lantz. Ekstrand’s replacement in central defence (Peter Larsson) is only there on loan until the summer, and surely Gerndt and probably Jönsson will disappear as well (you see, I keep on doing that mistake of overestimating the importance of the summer transfer window).
No man's land
6 Kalmar – one of the toughest to place this year, a little bit like Helsingborg last season. The squad does not long strong, but coach Nanne does.
7 AIK – Had a terrible 2010 and can only do better this year. Bangura I filled one gap last autumn, and will be the most important player also this year. Bangura II feels overhyped, and the remaining gaps compared to the 2009 winning squad are too many for AIK to really challenge. But less pressure and a better squad than last year secures a position on the top half of the table.
8 Mjällby – Hard to tell what will happen when El Kabir leaves, as he will this summer. Looks like they will end up around here, the squad is still too strong to get involved in the relegation battle.
9 Djurgården – For a while there, last year, Djurgården started to play good football again. That was much thanks to Thouma who is now gone and Sjölund, who is the only remaining class player. A good target for the year would be to beat rivals AIK. I think they will fail, though. Sad to see a team that had so much strength in the first half of the 2000s have such a weak squad. Good Riddez!
10 Trelleborg – Absolutely magnificent autumn last year. Coach Prahl gives the club super powers they should not have. Enough to steer them clear but not to challenge for a top spot yet again. Drugge will be missed.
11 Syrianska – Clever reinforcement of the squad. They now have the experience their local rivals Assyriska did not have when they tried. Syrianska will stay up thanks to a good, experienced midfield.
The relegation battle
12 Häcken – A strong pre-season means nothing. We have seen this before. Häcken will struggle this year.
13 Halmstad – How does a team with absolutely no money sign a bunch of “Real Madrid players”. The Spanish theme does not seem serious although they may surprise from time to time. But overall HBK is on the wrong track and need a time out. Relegation would do them well but I think they will stay up. Just.
14 Norrköping – Good ol’ Peking is back, and as always they dream of being something they are not. Trusting Ajdarevic to be the star does not bide well. Thorvaldson does not feel very fresh.
15 Gais – Alvaro Santos’ greatness are many years and kilos away. Wanderson? Not sure he will come and if he does, his spell will be too short to make a real impact. Bassombeng? Has the potential. Florén? A clever loan. But this is not good enough.
16 Gefle – Stayed up because two teams were even worse last year. Not the case this year. Orlov will be gone by summer if he continues to deliver, and I hope Lantto gets a better club as well. He deserves it. For the record, I’m not one of those that predict Gefle to go down every year. But this year they will – what can I do?
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