The most important derby ever

We say that quite often (but not as often as the Spaniards say that about El Clasico).

Quite often you can make a case for it.  Either because one or both teams have had a bad season and see the derby as a season saver, or because something bigger is also at stake. This time it is no doubt the latter. Clearly lo scudetto will stay in Milan and the question whether it will be blue or red that accompagnies the black is very much depdendent on Saturday night's game. The title has not been fought out between the two since the 1992/93 season, when both derbys ended in draws and Milan won the title four points clear of Inter. That meant Milan levelled the total tally of scudetti to 13 each.  If Milan win this season, they would level again to 18 each.  So "ever" is really since 1993. Or the Champions League encounters in 2003 and 2005.  Or the face-savers in 2001.  Have your pick.  It is a bloody important game.

I'm sure you can read in many places that this game always ends up with a draw. But it doesn't. Of the last 14 derbys, Milan have won 7, Inter 7. So likely there will be a winner and that winner will be the title favourite.  If there is a draw, Milan will have the upper hand but given recent form, I would say Inter will be a slight favourite.

So what speaks for and against the two?

Milan have many reasons to be worry. Ibrahimovic is banned.  Even though with his recent form that may not be a disadvantage, the reason why Milan are where they are is very much thanks to him.  The midfield is still plagued by injuries, Pirlo may be back on the bench but will not start and Ambrosini is still out. Milan's sad set of fullbacks hae also had another setback with the injury of Jankulovski.

On the plus side, Milan have an in-form, solid pair of central defenders, Tiago Silva is the best player of the team for the moment and Nesta is back in match form. Those two in front of Abbiate is Milan's strength.  Up front, Pato has been prolific and let's hope he stays that way even though he will hear a lot, I mean a lot, from the Inter supporters on his love affair with the president's daughter.  But neither Pato nor Robinho are the cool, cynical players you need in a derby.  And Cassano on the bench, oh well.

What speaks for Milan is really what speaks against Inter.  Leonardo when at Milan was a lousy lousy coach in the big games.  Faced against Ferguson and Mourinho last season he was so clearly outbrained that it was truly embarassing.  I hope there is a bit of that still in him, Inter survived against Bayern but no one can claimed they did it through clever play. And we know where his heart is.

What speaks for Inter is really two the class of Eto'o and the class of Sneijder.  And that can take them quite a long way. My prediction is that those two will decide the game. 

I think we will lose the Madonnia, 1-2 or 2-3, and then the scudetto. And I usually bet with my heart (see previous posts). With Midwest parental control switched on: Dang.