Thursday 17 March 2011

Great balls of fire

There is a legend that may or may not be true relating to fixed draws of major football events.  The number one conspiracy theory is that of hot and cold balls in the draw bowl.

http://mikewhalley.wordpress.com/2008/03/14/was-the-champions-league-draw-rigged/

So on the basis that there is more to it than the 14.3% chance of any encounter, here is one idea of how UEFA may be thinking for the quarter and semifinal draw of the Champions League, keeping in mind that (i) homecomings are popular, and (ii) Platini is disgusted by the idea of one-country (read: england) domination of European club football.

So, the attractive draws are:
Real-Barca (will mean there will be four clasicos in one month. A once in a lifetime opportunity. And one Spanish team gone)
Real-Chelsea (Mou homecoming)
Real-Inter (Mou homecoming, to some extent also Sneijder)
Real-Schalke (Raul homecoming)
Real-United (Ronaldo homcoming)
Chelsea-Spurs (London derby, albeit no one really sees this encounter as much of a derby.  And one English team gone)
Chelsea-United (English combination, final 2008)
United-Spurs (the other English combinations)
Barcelona-Inter (revenge for last year, Eto'o homecoming)
Barcelona-United (final 2009)

On the basis of that, don't expect Real to be drawn against Spurs or Shaktar.  Not even on the same half.  I guess the draw will be (winners of game 1 and 2 will face each other in semi, as will the winners 3 and 4),

Barca-Real
United-Inter
Chelsea-Spurs
Schalke-Shaktar

Which according to a previous post would give Spurs a 22% chance of playing the final.  I'd settle for that.

2 comments:

  1. Lets not bring the temperature of balls into this discussion. Although, you could make a case for Tottenham Hot Balls for drawing a possible Ronaldoless Real...

    Mark

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  2. Yes, I did not get much right there. For Spurs to go to Wembley means knocking out both Real and Barca. Aint gonna happen. Especially as Defoe has jinxed himself by making a "100" tatoo although he has only scored 99 PL goals.

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