No academic quarter

Could be a thrilling ending to the Euro qualifyer.  As I posted already in March, Denmark are in the best position to qualify as best runner up.

If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost.  Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark.  Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.

And that draw may be a likely result.  Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.

15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland.  If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal.  But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland.  With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.

The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.

Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.

Here's what I said then:

Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups.  We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY

England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE

Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE

As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two.  Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted.  The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.