Great Balls of Fire III

Seedings for Euro 2012 are now definite.

Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland

For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4.  Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy.  What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.

The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France.  That would be something else.

The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs.  Let's hope that happens.

In my dream world, I would like to see:

Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic

Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points.  If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.

Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland

OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden.  And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.

Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France

Too tempting.  Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.

Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark