Elm and... er...? II

Tomorrow.  Holland.  Not a must-win this time. But a very much wanna-win as a win means a ticket to Euro 2012 as best runner-up and with a draw we have a chance although my bet goes to Denmarl (kick-off changed, someone read my "No academic quarter" post).

How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan.  But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors.  Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea.  And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:

Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander

Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.

But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now.  Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):

Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)

Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)

So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).

An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.