History is written by the winners. The value of perspective of time. Time to nurture those old clichés.
It's pretty much possible to divide all time periods in eras. European club football is no different and UEFA Champions League (previously the European Cup) in itself is a good yard stick although the format of the competition has changed over time and although by nature it only a measurement of the premium end of each league.
I'm talking about the eternal question "which league is the best?" Whích league is the best, you think, right now? And what would you have answered in 2008? In 2000? In 1990?
There are eras and the eras are sometimes so intense that we lose perspective. Really.
Right now, Barcelona are by many considered unbeatable (bar some unsportsmanlike tactics from the villain, Mou). That's pretty new. Barcelona has been a top team in Europe for many years but when Barcelona made it to the final two years ago it was with a last minute winner against what was then the favourite, Chelsea.
Back then, all focus was on British domination. For the second consecutive year, England had produced three out of four semifinalists. It seemed England had dominated for long, and would dominate for the foreseeable future.
Actually, the Premier League domination era was fairly short and generated in, at most, two titles. When Liverpool reached the final in 2005, that was considered a huge surprise, and that win is the story of one of the greatest underdog win in non-fiction life (the game belongs to the horror genre in my book, but that's a different story).
England partly overlapped with some rather odd AC Milan success period (2003-07), although the world would never admit that AC Milan was the dominant team in Europe in this period. But if you need to pick one team, based on merit, clearly AC Milan is the team standing out despite most limited domestic success.
Who would have thought that when Zidane volleyed in El Galacticos third win in five years in 2002? What could possibly have stopped them at that point? Spain dominated football and Real Madrid dominated the world.
We saw that coming when Hierro and his team beat Juve in 1998. What we may not have guessed at that point was that no Italian team would reach the final until two of them did it in 2003. Because in 1998, Italian participation in the final was a rule. Seven straight finals and nine finals in the last ten years - 1998 (Juve), 1997 (Juve), 1996 (Juve), 1995 (Milan), 1994 (Milan), 1993 (Milan), 1992 (Sampdoria), 1990 (Milan), 1989 (Milan).
That Italian domination followed on a period in the 1980s where, just like around 2003-2005, European domination was up for grabs, six countries had lifted the trophy in as many years. In a way, the Heysel disaster in 1985 marked the end to another era, this time with the difference that for everyone watching, it was clear that was exactly what was happening. We knew English teams would be banned, and we therefore knew that an era of English/German battles has come to an end. Between 1974 and 1984, the 11 European cup titles were divided between England (7) and Germany (4), with England dominating the latter part of that period.
And so the history has developed. Before my lifetime there were four more periods, the Real Madrid Era in the fifties was followed by a short Benfica (Eusebio) spell in the early 60s, followed by Italian domination for the rest of the 60s until the Dutch in general and Ajax in particular dominated the early 70s.
The recent English period was short, intense and did not result in a whole lot of silverware. Will the Barca era turn out the same? Or is the English domination not really over?
I guess time will tell.
Monday 30 May 2011
Less but yet premature predictions
Edit: Ado Den Haag, not Groningen, won the Dutch play-off. Text amended below. Apologies, blame my football app if you will.
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All cups and leagues in Europe are finalised. The summer will now turn into a very brief focus on national teams with qualifyers this weekend and mid-week next. After that, there is the Gold Cup (which after all will feature Alejandro Bedoya), the Swedish League and cup (Örebro are in the quarters and with a good draw!), the transfer season and, starting with a draw on the 20th June, Europa Legue qualifyers.
We now know which team will enter in which round. My previous post on the topic was not very far off: We can get a very tough team, Fulham, in the second round, everything else is doable although no opponents can be considered a shoe-in.
We have an advantage in the fact that most other teams will be in pre-season training for the second round (14 and 21 July). What I did not think of before was that if we are drawn against one of the better teams in the second round, we will take their position as a seeded team in the third round (and hence avoid teams like Atletico Madrid, Palermo, Rennes and Stoke).
So, for the chances of getting all the way to the play-off round (where it will be hard no matter what), it's probably best to be drawn against one of Fulham, Dinamo Bucharest, Red Bull Salzburg, Austria Wien, Anorthosis, Zilina, Nacional, ADO Den Haag, Vorskla Poltava, Sheriff Tirastopol, Lokomotiv Sofia or Gaziantespor.
In that case we are likely to be drawn against a less experiences team that went through in the second round or Hajduk Split, Omonia Nicosia, Legia Warsaw, Ried (Austria), Gomel (Belarus), Senica (Slovakia), Stromgodset (Norway) or Sligo Rovers (Ireland).
So here are draws for the second round which I would like (in order of preference)
1. Den Haag. An unpredictable team (the qualified by beating Groningen on penalties despite winning the first game 5-1), that may be out of focus in early July. Admittedly far from the easiest draw, but within driving distance (even over a day) and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
2. Red Bull Salzburg. I will round up local support for Örebro, Red Bull is a team with aspirations but we have a good chance and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
3. Austria Wien. For the same reasons as above.
4. Lokomotiv Sofia. Not a top team in Bulgaria, gained the spot in competition with several other teams. And with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
5. Westerlo. So convenient. A country side club less than one hour's drive away from home. Unfortunately that would mean no seeding in the third round.
Also a good draw: Any unseeded team from the first round beating a seeded team (some more than others, but all considered a good draw), Bohemians, Levadia, Honka, Larnaca, St. Patrick's, Ventspils.
This would be the true nightmare draws:
1. Fulham. OK, they will be in pre-seaon training, but Fulham takes this seriously. And we should not stand a chance against a team that finished 8th in the premier league.
2. Maccabi Tel Aviv. Tough draw, tough trip, and yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
3. Bnei Metuda. Same as above.
4. Olympiakos Volou. Was in play-off for a Champions League spot in Greece, which means they are not a bad team. And yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
5. Midtjylland. Lost out in the race for third spot on goal difference, and lost the cup final. Midtjylland are a good team in a league that, we have to admit, is superior to the Swedish league. And Midtjylland will be done with pre-season training. And no seeding in the third round.
Also a bad draw: Vojvodina, Tromsö, Quarabag, Aktobe, Dynamo Tbilsi, Ålesund.
Let's hope that fortune (and/or the UEFA officials) are on our side. For it sounds more likely that the Europa League dream will come true if we play Gaziantespor, Sligo Rovers and Anorthosis than if we play Fulham, Altetico Madrid and Roma. The likelihood is about the same.
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All cups and leagues in Europe are finalised. The summer will now turn into a very brief focus on national teams with qualifyers this weekend and mid-week next. After that, there is the Gold Cup (which after all will feature Alejandro Bedoya), the Swedish League and cup (Örebro are in the quarters and with a good draw!), the transfer season and, starting with a draw on the 20th June, Europa Legue qualifyers.
We now know which team will enter in which round. My previous post on the topic was not very far off: We can get a very tough team, Fulham, in the second round, everything else is doable although no opponents can be considered a shoe-in.
We have an advantage in the fact that most other teams will be in pre-season training for the second round (14 and 21 July). What I did not think of before was that if we are drawn against one of the better teams in the second round, we will take their position as a seeded team in the third round (and hence avoid teams like Atletico Madrid, Palermo, Rennes and Stoke).
So, for the chances of getting all the way to the play-off round (where it will be hard no matter what), it's probably best to be drawn against one of Fulham, Dinamo Bucharest, Red Bull Salzburg, Austria Wien, Anorthosis, Zilina, Nacional, ADO Den Haag, Vorskla Poltava, Sheriff Tirastopol, Lokomotiv Sofia or Gaziantespor.
In that case we are likely to be drawn against a less experiences team that went through in the second round or Hajduk Split, Omonia Nicosia, Legia Warsaw, Ried (Austria), Gomel (Belarus), Senica (Slovakia), Stromgodset (Norway) or Sligo Rovers (Ireland).
So here are draws for the second round which I would like (in order of preference)
1. Den Haag. An unpredictable team (the qualified by beating Groningen on penalties despite winning the first game 5-1), that may be out of focus in early July. Admittedly far from the easiest draw, but within driving distance (even over a day) and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
2. Red Bull Salzburg. I will round up local support for Örebro, Red Bull is a team with aspirations but we have a good chance and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
3. Austria Wien. For the same reasons as above.
4. Lokomotiv Sofia. Not a top team in Bulgaria, gained the spot in competition with several other teams. And with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
5. Westerlo. So convenient. A country side club less than one hour's drive away from home. Unfortunately that would mean no seeding in the third round.
Also a good draw: Any unseeded team from the first round beating a seeded team (some more than others, but all considered a good draw), Bohemians, Levadia, Honka, Larnaca, St. Patrick's, Ventspils.
This would be the true nightmare draws:
1. Fulham. OK, they will be in pre-seaon training, but Fulham takes this seriously. And we should not stand a chance against a team that finished 8th in the premier league.
2. Maccabi Tel Aviv. Tough draw, tough trip, and yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
3. Bnei Metuda. Same as above.
4. Olympiakos Volou. Was in play-off for a Champions League spot in Greece, which means they are not a bad team. And yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
5. Midtjylland. Lost out in the race for third spot on goal difference, and lost the cup final. Midtjylland are a good team in a league that, we have to admit, is superior to the Swedish league. And Midtjylland will be done with pre-season training. And no seeding in the third round.
Also a bad draw: Vojvodina, Tromsö, Quarabag, Aktobe, Dynamo Tbilsi, Ålesund.
Let's hope that fortune (and/or the UEFA officials) are on our side. For it sounds more likely that the Europa League dream will come true if we play Gaziantespor, Sligo Rovers and Anorthosis than if we play Fulham, Altetico Madrid and Roma. The likelihood is about the same.
Tuesday 24 May 2011
Deoxyribonucleic acid of a dinosaur
If I was surprised that Bedoya missed the U.S. Gold Cup, it was far more expected that Almebäck would miss out of Sweden's next two qualifyers against Moldova and Finland. Mellberg and Majstorovic are back, and Iron Mike's form has been average.
But I have a non-Örebro point to make with this post.
Here's the likely Swedish line-up:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, Wendt
Svensson, Källström
Larsson, Elmander, Bajrami
Ibrahimovic
At least that's how Hamrén would like to line it up, as 4-2-3-1 that revolutionises Swedish national team football. The style that Zlatan described as "more modern, more offensive". More modern and more offensive may eye, I say. Given the qualities of these 11 players and the way they are expected to play for Sweden, admit that this looks more accurate?
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, Wendt
Larsson, Svensson, Källström, Bajrami
Elmander, Ibrahimovic
4-4-2. Let's not deny our own DNA code.
On that note, the Swedish national team is having a dull moment. The Holland game sucked the buzz and the feeling of something new and fresh out of the team. So my comments are few and dry.
Absent injuries I think Hamrén have three questions for himself:
I also struggle to see the point in flying Christian Wilhelmsson in for the bench in national team games, but I guess it makes Zlatan happy.
All in all a better team then our opposition but not a team with enough quality and confidence to bag the points already now. Far from it, actually.
The full squad:
Målvakter: Andreas Isaksson, Eindhoven, Johan Wiland, FC Köpenhamn, Pär Hansson, Helsingborg.
Försvarare: Andreas Granqvist, Groningen, Mikael Lustig, Rosenborg, Oscar Wendt, FC Köpenhamn, Olof Mellberg, Olympiakos, Daniel Majstorovic, Celic, Behrang Safari, Basel.
Mittfältare/anfallare: Sebastian Larsson, Birmingham, Kim Källström, Lyon, Anders Svensson, Elfsborg, Emir Bajrami, Twente, Martin Olsson, Blackburn, Pontus Wernbloom, AZ Alkmaar, Christian Wilhelmsson, Al Hilal, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Milan, Ola Toivonen, PSV Eindhoven, Johan Elmander, Bolton, Alexander Gerndt, Helsingborg, Tobias Hysén, IFK Göteborg
But I have a non-Örebro point to make with this post.
Here's the likely Swedish line-up:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, Wendt
Svensson, Källström
Larsson, Elmander, Bajrami
Ibrahimovic
At least that's how Hamrén would like to line it up, as 4-2-3-1 that revolutionises Swedish national team football. The style that Zlatan described as "more modern, more offensive". More modern and more offensive may eye, I say. Given the qualities of these 11 players and the way they are expected to play for Sweden, admit that this looks more accurate?
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, Wendt
Larsson, Svensson, Källström, Bajrami
Elmander, Ibrahimovic
4-4-2. Let's not deny our own DNA code.
On that note, the Swedish national team is having a dull moment. The Holland game sucked the buzz and the feeling of something new and fresh out of the team. So my comments are few and dry.
Absent injuries I think Hamrén have three questions for himself:
- The left back, Wendt or the infamous thrower-inner Safari? Hamrén will not bet on Safari in the end, Wendt comes in via the exclusion method
- The central midfielder next to Svensson? I think Källström will be back on the team and Wernbloom on the bench, Boom-Boom has been terrible in his past few games for Sweden
- Where to play Elmander? Elmander will play, I'm sure. But Hamrén wants Larsson's delivery from the right. So he needs to sacrifice Toivonen or Bajrami and as Elmander is stronger centrally (which was proven by his weak spring on the wing at Bolton) the wiser choice is to play him there.
I also struggle to see the point in flying Christian Wilhelmsson in for the bench in national team games, but I guess it makes Zlatan happy.
All in all a better team then our opposition but not a team with enough quality and confidence to bag the points already now. Far from it, actually.
The full squad:
Målvakter: Andreas Isaksson, Eindhoven, Johan Wiland, FC Köpenhamn, Pär Hansson, Helsingborg.
Försvarare: Andreas Granqvist, Groningen, Mikael Lustig, Rosenborg, Oscar Wendt, FC Köpenhamn, Olof Mellberg, Olympiakos, Daniel Majstorovic, Celic, Behrang Safari, Basel.
Mittfältare/anfallare: Sebastian Larsson, Birmingham, Kim Källström, Lyon, Anders Svensson, Elfsborg, Emir Bajrami, Twente, Martin Olsson, Blackburn, Pontus Wernbloom, AZ Alkmaar, Christian Wilhelmsson, Al Hilal, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Milan, Ola Toivonen, PSV Eindhoven, Johan Elmander, Bolton, Alexander Gerndt, Helsingborg, Tobias Hysén, IFK Göteborg
Rapid decline, raising Storm
Here's a good summary of the status of Austrian football on the day before the last day of the season, courtesy of my friend Fussie.
(There is an Örebro SK angle to this: there is a 5.1% chance we will play either the number 2 or the number 3 of the Austrian league in the Europa Legue qualifyer; this most likely means Red Bull and probably Austrian)
Second last round / matchday last weekend:
1.) The Viennese Derby between Rapid and Austria was interrupted after 26 Min due to Rapid Hooligans (strengthened by Ultras from Greece, Italy and Germnay) entered the pitch (by the way in front of officials from "Phillips", who were considering to sponsor Rapid next season) :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW9nXG6Qy18
As a result of this, Austria Wien won the Derby by 3:0 (armchair decision).
However, at the same matchday, Sturm Graz, the leader in the leagua, won 2:1 against Wiener Neustadt and is now still leading 2 points ahead of Austria Wien (PLUS better goal difference, Red Bull Salzburg is out of the race).
Interesting is the 2:1 victory goal from Sturm Graz: It was a penalty in the 85th (!) minute after a player of Wr Neustadt made this unbelievable hands:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIUtXDGlvW8
Last detail, the player of Wr Neustadt, who commited hands, is only playing "on loan" in Wiener Neustadt, his real club is Sturm Graz.....
(There is an Örebro SK angle to this: there is a 5.1% chance we will play either the number 2 or the number 3 of the Austrian league in the Europa Legue qualifyer; this most likely means Red Bull and probably Austrian)
Second last round / matchday last weekend:
1.) The Viennese Derby between Rapid and Austria was interrupted after 26 Min due to Rapid Hooligans (strengthened by Ultras from Greece, Italy and Germnay) entered the pitch (by the way in front of officials from "Phillips", who were considering to sponsor Rapid next season) :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW9nXG6Qy18
As a result of this, Austria Wien won the Derby by 3:0 (armchair decision).
However, at the same matchday, Sturm Graz, the leader in the leagua, won 2:1 against Wiener Neustadt and is now still leading 2 points ahead of Austria Wien (PLUS better goal difference, Red Bull Salzburg is out of the race).
Interesting is the 2:1 victory goal from Sturm Graz: It was a penalty in the 85th (!) minute after a player of Wr Neustadt made this unbelievable hands:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIUtXDGlvW8
Last detail, the player of Wr Neustadt, who commited hands, is only playing "on loan" in Wiener Neustadt, his real club is Sturm Graz.....
Don't call my name, Bob Bradley Part II
It's with mixed emotions I read that Alejandro Bedoya is not called up for the U.S gold cup roster.
First, relief. We get to keep Bedoya for four important games in allsvenskan.
Secondly, surprise. Despite Örebro's overall disappointing start to the season, Ale has been phenomenal and by far our best player in the first nine games of the season. He has played in all three midfield positions and for a while on Sunday as a striker. He delivered eveywhere. He has scored four goals and made two assists, which means he has been involved in half of Örebro's goals.
Does that mean has should naturally be called up for the U.S, a team that made it to the quarter finals of the world cup? No. But it is clear Bradley has taken a liking to Bedoya before, giving him a number of caps. So, with other midfielders out, it is surprising that Bedoya does not make the roster when he is clearly on his best form ever.
Thirdly, compassion. Tough luck for Alejandro, really.
Lastly, stingyness. We need to consider the greater good, i.e. the impact on Örebro SK. Here are some hard facts:
What do you think? Is Ale not being picked good or bad news? On what is the lowest acceptable price tag for Ale if we let him go this summer?
First, relief. We get to keep Bedoya for four important games in allsvenskan.
Secondly, surprise. Despite Örebro's overall disappointing start to the season, Ale has been phenomenal and by far our best player in the first nine games of the season. He has played in all three midfield positions and for a while on Sunday as a striker. He delivered eveywhere. He has scored four goals and made two assists, which means he has been involved in half of Örebro's goals.
Does that mean has should naturally be called up for the U.S, a team that made it to the quarter finals of the world cup? No. But it is clear Bradley has taken a liking to Bedoya before, giving him a number of caps. So, with other midfielders out, it is surprising that Bedoya does not make the roster when he is clearly on his best form ever.
Thirdly, compassion. Tough luck for Alejandro, really.
Lastly, stingyness. We need to consider the greater good, i.e. the impact on Örebro SK. Here are some hard facts:
- Bedoya's contract expires at the end of the year and he has declared he does not intend to extend it. That means if Örebro wants money for Bedoya, they need to sell him this summer
- Caps in competitive games for the U.S. counts on your CV. Alejandro's value would have increased just by being picked, and even more if he played and played well (likely given his current form)
- But playing the Gold Cup would have meant Bedoya missing four games for Örebro.
What do you think? Is Ale not being picked good or bad news? On what is the lowest acceptable price tag for Ale if we let him go this summer?
Monday 23 May 2011
A fine year for port, less so for the Bourdeux
There is a bit of football left to be played in Europe before we close for summer (the Swedish league will keep everyone intrigued though). Who will prevail in the Alps? Will Zürich or Basel come out first in their two-horse battle? Will Sturm Graz stay ahead of chasing Austria and Red Bull? What will happen to Rapid Wien?
And. Who will win the second Greek Champions League qualification spot? And who will win the cups in Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Belarus, Moldova and Azerbaijan? Will Blackpool win a fair play card to the Europa League (which would mean England have to 2nd division teams in Europe this autumn)?
And then there is some game between United and Barca still to be played. Anyway, in one week it will all be over but to be first on the ball, let's summarize now. The top 5 hits and flops of the 2010/2011 season in Europe
1. Porto. League - unbeaten. Cup - 4th straight title after 6-2 in the final. Europa League - goal record for Falcao. An enourmous tripple for Villas-Boas' boys. There is so much 2003 over Porto 2011 that it is almost scary to think of what can happen in 2012. And I am not talking about the Maya calendar.
2. Dortmund. Dortmund has always been in my do not like folder. The background to that is unclear. Ok that they have an ugly kit - but which German team doesn't? And ok that Andy Möller was an exceptionally annoying footballer. Still. Had Youtube existed in the late 80s, had I known about the Südtribune, I would probably had a different opionion of Dortmund. This season, they have been the biggest charmer of European football. Winning the Bundesliga easily, with a team full of youngesters, full of players with a big Dortmund heart, and with an attacking, positive football. All credit to them. Dortmund will likely be seeded in the fourth and last group in Champions League next year. A bad draw for the teams they will play.
3. Udinese. Started the season with four losses before they could finally claim a point against Sampdoria with a goalless draw in round 5. Then they started winning. And scoring. They started 2011 like this. Chievo (home) 2-0. Milan (away) 4-4. Genoa (away) 4-2. Inter (home) 3-1. Juventus (away) 2-1. Bologna (home) 1-1. Sampdoria (home) 2-0. Cesena (away) 3-0. Brescia (home) 0-0. Palermo (away) 7-0. Bari (home) 1-0. Cagliari (away) 4-0. And so on. A break for national team games but them off a bit, for a while it looked as if they would challenge for the Scudetto. Natale and Sanchez on fire, an average of four goals per game away in Serie A. Hats off. And best of luck in the quest for Champions League. Well deserved, although it will not be easy to live through the play-off (likely against either Bayern, Arsenal, Lyon, Villareal or Benfica).
4. Lille. Lille have been coming for a while. Again, it is a team known to foster their own players that finally made it all the way against the bigger clubs. Again a team that may be a Champions League 4th seed.
5. Dacia Chisinau. Dacia Who? Dacia deserves a special mentioning as they have put an end to the most dominating streak in European football. Sheriff Tirsaspor have won the Moldovan league for 10 consecutive years, and consistently with 20 or so points. This year Dacia secured the title with three rounds to play. I can't say I'm an expert on the topic, but I imagine this is big for the Dacia fans.
We also congratulate the following teams on fine fine seasons: Racing Genk, Sturm Graz, Napoli, Viktoria Plzen, Lazio, Mainz, Otelul Galati, Bolton, Valencia, Hannover 96, Milan, Gaziantespor, West Bromwich, Braga, Barcelona, Manchester United, Cesena. We thank Tottenham Hotspur, Schalke 04 and Blackpool for having made this season more interesting to watch.
Flops
1. Sampdoria. A minute from Champions League group stage in September. What happened then? Who sells Pazzini and Cassano? What the hell were you thinking? Think better in Serie B next year.
2. Birmingham. A solid Premier League team last year. A better squad this year. Another relegation that should not have happened.
3. Roma. I thought Roma had a team that could challenge for the scudetto this year. They were never close, they were rarely exciting. And their performance against Schalke was just awful.
4. Galatasaray. What ever happened to Galatasaray? The whole Turkish Süperlig seems to be in flux. Is Elmander the man to save them?
5. Bourdeux. Girondines started the collapse already last spring. The team that was to dominate French football is now just another team in Ligue 1.
We also say boo to CFR Cluj (where did all the money go?), Juventus, Werder Bremen (although we are glad you are still so hard to predict), Feyenoord, (Pierre van Hoijdonk, where are you?), Bayern, Getafe and Deportivo, Universitea Craiova, West Ham, Almeria, Bari. And a special mentioning to Cukaricki in Serbia. No wins. 4 points. 9 goals scored in 28 games. Worst top flight team in Europe?
And. Who will win the second Greek Champions League qualification spot? And who will win the cups in Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Belarus, Moldova and Azerbaijan? Will Blackpool win a fair play card to the Europa League (which would mean England have to 2nd division teams in Europe this autumn)?
And then there is some game between United and Barca still to be played. Anyway, in one week it will all be over but to be first on the ball, let's summarize now. The top 5 hits and flops of the 2010/2011 season in Europe
1. Porto. League - unbeaten. Cup - 4th straight title after 6-2 in the final. Europa League - goal record for Falcao. An enourmous tripple for Villas-Boas' boys. There is so much 2003 over Porto 2011 that it is almost scary to think of what can happen in 2012. And I am not talking about the Maya calendar.
2. Dortmund. Dortmund has always been in my do not like folder. The background to that is unclear. Ok that they have an ugly kit - but which German team doesn't? And ok that Andy Möller was an exceptionally annoying footballer. Still. Had Youtube existed in the late 80s, had I known about the Südtribune, I would probably had a different opionion of Dortmund. This season, they have been the biggest charmer of European football. Winning the Bundesliga easily, with a team full of youngesters, full of players with a big Dortmund heart, and with an attacking, positive football. All credit to them. Dortmund will likely be seeded in the fourth and last group in Champions League next year. A bad draw for the teams they will play.
3. Udinese. Started the season with four losses before they could finally claim a point against Sampdoria with a goalless draw in round 5. Then they started winning. And scoring. They started 2011 like this. Chievo (home) 2-0. Milan (away) 4-4. Genoa (away) 4-2. Inter (home) 3-1. Juventus (away) 2-1. Bologna (home) 1-1. Sampdoria (home) 2-0. Cesena (away) 3-0. Brescia (home) 0-0. Palermo (away) 7-0. Bari (home) 1-0. Cagliari (away) 4-0. And so on. A break for national team games but them off a bit, for a while it looked as if they would challenge for the Scudetto. Natale and Sanchez on fire, an average of four goals per game away in Serie A. Hats off. And best of luck in the quest for Champions League. Well deserved, although it will not be easy to live through the play-off (likely against either Bayern, Arsenal, Lyon, Villareal or Benfica).
4. Lille. Lille have been coming for a while. Again, it is a team known to foster their own players that finally made it all the way against the bigger clubs. Again a team that may be a Champions League 4th seed.
5. Dacia Chisinau. Dacia Who? Dacia deserves a special mentioning as they have put an end to the most dominating streak in European football. Sheriff Tirsaspor have won the Moldovan league for 10 consecutive years, and consistently with 20 or so points. This year Dacia secured the title with three rounds to play. I can't say I'm an expert on the topic, but I imagine this is big for the Dacia fans.
We also congratulate the following teams on fine fine seasons: Racing Genk, Sturm Graz, Napoli, Viktoria Plzen, Lazio, Mainz, Otelul Galati, Bolton, Valencia, Hannover 96, Milan, Gaziantespor, West Bromwich, Braga, Barcelona, Manchester United, Cesena. We thank Tottenham Hotspur, Schalke 04 and Blackpool for having made this season more interesting to watch.
Flops
1. Sampdoria. A minute from Champions League group stage in September. What happened then? Who sells Pazzini and Cassano? What the hell were you thinking? Think better in Serie B next year.
2. Birmingham. A solid Premier League team last year. A better squad this year. Another relegation that should not have happened.
3. Roma. I thought Roma had a team that could challenge for the scudetto this year. They were never close, they were rarely exciting. And their performance against Schalke was just awful.
4. Galatasaray. What ever happened to Galatasaray? The whole Turkish Süperlig seems to be in flux. Is Elmander the man to save them?
5. Bourdeux. Girondines started the collapse already last spring. The team that was to dominate French football is now just another team in Ligue 1.
We also say boo to CFR Cluj (where did all the money go?), Juventus, Werder Bremen (although we are glad you are still so hard to predict), Feyenoord, (Pierre van Hoijdonk, where are you?), Bayern, Getafe and Deportivo, Universitea Craiova, West Ham, Almeria, Bari. And a special mentioning to Cukaricki in Serbia. No wins. 4 points. 9 goals scored in 28 games. Worst top flight team in Europe?
Hate to say I didn't tell you so
You just got to trust me as this blog did not exist when I predicted the outcome of Premier League, Serie A and Primera Division (I don't like to say "la Liga", so I chose not to).
This post is not bragging (in many instances there is certainly no reason to brag). But assuming I am mainstream, the varied accuarcy of the predictions of the big three could maybe say something of the structure of the different league? Or is it just varying lack of knowledge from my side?
My way of analysing predictions are simple. I predict all positions before the leagues start, if the position is correct I get a 0, otherwise I get the number of points that differ between the predicted position and the actual position. The lower the average score per team, the better.
So let's do them one by one, the big three:
Premier League (actual position, team, predicted position = points)
1. Manchester United (1=0)
2. Chelsea (2=0)
3. Manchester City (3=0)
4. Arsenal (4=0)
5. Tottenham (5=0)
6. Liverpool (6=0)
7. Everton (8=1)
8. Fulham (11=3)
9. Aston Villa (7=2)
10. Sunderland (10=0)
11. West Bromwich (19=8)
12. Newcastle (15=3)
13. Stoke (12=1)
14. Bolton (18=4)
15. Blackburn (13=2)
16. Wigan (16=0)
17. Wolverhampton (17=0)
18. Birmingham (9=9)
19. Blackpool (20=1)
20. West Ham (14=6)
Total: 40, average per team 2.0.
Serie A
1. Milan (4=3)
2. Inter (2=0)
3. Napoli (9=6)
4. Udinese (12=8)
5. Lazio (15=10)
6. Roma (1=5)
7. Juventus (3=4)
8. Palermo (7=1)
9. Fiorentina (8=1)
10. Genoa (5=5)
11. Chievo (18=7)
12. Parma (11=1)
13. Catania (10=3)
14. Cagliari (13=1)
15. Cesena (20=5)
16. Bologna (14=2)
17. Lecce (17=0)
18. Sampdoria (6=12)
19. Brescia (19=0)
20. Bari (16=4)
Total 76, average 3.8 per team
Primera Division
1. Barcelona (2=1)
2. Real Madrid (1=1)
3. Valencia (9=6)
4. Villareal (6=2)
5. Sevilla (4=1)
6. Bilbao (5=1)
7. Atlectico (3=4)
8. Espanyol (11=3)
9. Osasuna (18=9)
10. Gijon (15=5)
11. Malaga (16=5)
12. Racing (12=0)
13. Zaragoza (13=0)
14. Levante (19=5)
15. Sociedad (17=2)
16. Getafe (7=9)
17. Mallorca (10=7)
18. La Coruna (8=10)
19. Hercules (20=1)
20. Almeria (14=6)
Total 78, average 3.9 per team
So. With the exception of a few mishaps (West Brom, Birmingham and maybe West Ham) my prediction of the Premier League was phenomenal (that's right, no bragging). I got nine teams on the exact right spot, and the top 6 in the right order. And had O'Neil resigned before my predition was handed in I would have had Everton as number 7.
In Spain I got the worst result but I claim to be no expert other than knowing a bit of the top 7 or so teams. I think no one in the world had another duo in the top 2, behind them I'm really impressed by Valencia and the rest is pretty much as it should have been, give or take.
But Serie A. I do claim to know a bit about Serie A. Maybe I should stop now. How can I so entirely miss the decline of Sampdoria, the fantastic run of Udinese, the stability of credibility of the new Lazio, the rediculous instability of Roma, and so on? Or should I really have seen that?
There is a difference. Premier League is truly segmented. 6 teams play an entirely different style of football compared to the rest, with superior resources and hence superior players. The rest are also split in layers, those who are good enough to give the big six a go (Everton, Villa and over the past couple of years Fulham), the once that are good enough to be safe from relegation (Sunderland, Stoke) and those who will struggle to stay up.
Serie A used to have all that. Remember the 7 sisters that ruled until 10 years ago. But years of instability that culminated in calciopoli have led to clubs with less financial resources and more focus on developing talents (although in the end, the players from the elephant's graveyard, Milanello, lifted the scudetto).
None of that is new. But with the ego centric view that a blog should have, the results of my predictions constitute solid scientific evidence of the difference in predictability between England and Italy.
This post is not bragging (in many instances there is certainly no reason to brag). But assuming I am mainstream, the varied accuarcy of the predictions of the big three could maybe say something of the structure of the different league? Or is it just varying lack of knowledge from my side?
My way of analysing predictions are simple. I predict all positions before the leagues start, if the position is correct I get a 0, otherwise I get the number of points that differ between the predicted position and the actual position. The lower the average score per team, the better.
So let's do them one by one, the big three:
Premier League (actual position, team, predicted position = points)
1. Manchester United (1=0)
2. Chelsea (2=0)
3. Manchester City (3=0)
4. Arsenal (4=0)
5. Tottenham (5=0)
6. Liverpool (6=0)
7. Everton (8=1)
8. Fulham (11=3)
9. Aston Villa (7=2)
10. Sunderland (10=0)
11. West Bromwich (19=8)
12. Newcastle (15=3)
13. Stoke (12=1)
14. Bolton (18=4)
15. Blackburn (13=2)
16. Wigan (16=0)
17. Wolverhampton (17=0)
18. Birmingham (9=9)
19. Blackpool (20=1)
20. West Ham (14=6)
Total: 40, average per team 2.0.
Serie A
1. Milan (4=3)
2. Inter (2=0)
3. Napoli (9=6)
4. Udinese (12=8)
5. Lazio (15=10)
6. Roma (1=5)
7. Juventus (3=4)
8. Palermo (7=1)
9. Fiorentina (8=1)
10. Genoa (5=5)
11. Chievo (18=7)
12. Parma (11=1)
13. Catania (10=3)
14. Cagliari (13=1)
15. Cesena (20=5)
16. Bologna (14=2)
17. Lecce (17=0)
18. Sampdoria (6=12)
19. Brescia (19=0)
20. Bari (16=4)
Total 76, average 3.8 per team
Primera Division
1. Barcelona (2=1)
2. Real Madrid (1=1)
3. Valencia (9=6)
4. Villareal (6=2)
5. Sevilla (4=1)
6. Bilbao (5=1)
7. Atlectico (3=4)
8. Espanyol (11=3)
9. Osasuna (18=9)
10. Gijon (15=5)
11. Malaga (16=5)
12. Racing (12=0)
13. Zaragoza (13=0)
14. Levante (19=5)
15. Sociedad (17=2)
16. Getafe (7=9)
17. Mallorca (10=7)
18. La Coruna (8=10)
19. Hercules (20=1)
20. Almeria (14=6)
Total 78, average 3.9 per team
So. With the exception of a few mishaps (West Brom, Birmingham and maybe West Ham) my prediction of the Premier League was phenomenal (that's right, no bragging). I got nine teams on the exact right spot, and the top 6 in the right order. And had O'Neil resigned before my predition was handed in I would have had Everton as number 7.
In Spain I got the worst result but I claim to be no expert other than knowing a bit of the top 7 or so teams. I think no one in the world had another duo in the top 2, behind them I'm really impressed by Valencia and the rest is pretty much as it should have been, give or take.
But Serie A. I do claim to know a bit about Serie A. Maybe I should stop now. How can I so entirely miss the decline of Sampdoria, the fantastic run of Udinese, the stability of credibility of the new Lazio, the rediculous instability of Roma, and so on? Or should I really have seen that?
There is a difference. Premier League is truly segmented. 6 teams play an entirely different style of football compared to the rest, with superior resources and hence superior players. The rest are also split in layers, those who are good enough to give the big six a go (Everton, Villa and over the past couple of years Fulham), the once that are good enough to be safe from relegation (Sunderland, Stoke) and those who will struggle to stay up.
Serie A used to have all that. Remember the 7 sisters that ruled until 10 years ago. But years of instability that culminated in calciopoli have led to clubs with less financial resources and more focus on developing talents (although in the end, the players from the elephant's graveyard, Milanello, lifted the scudetto).
None of that is new. But with the ego centric view that a blog should have, the results of my predictions constitute solid scientific evidence of the difference in predictability between England and Italy.
Friday 20 May 2011
The third man
Got inspired to write this after reading on the Swedish fansite http://www.svenskafans.com/ about Allegri's midfield formation which in itself is not out of the ordinary in modern football. Just like for instance Örebro SK, he is playing a three-man midfield a cleaner, a runner and a creator. Svenska fans are writing well (in Swedish though) about who will play where in those three positions. That's not what this post is about but in brief, based on what we have now (and Pirlo leaving) it looks like follows (bold means primary position, non-bold means playable in that position)
Cleaner: van Bommel, Ambrosini, Thiago Silva
Runner: Boateng, Flamini, Gattuso, Emanuelson, Strasser
Creator: Seedorf, Merkel
Seedorf is rumoured to be on his way out and Merkel is still too young. So a new player is absolutely needed there.
But you saw in bold Boateng's name in the "runner" role. The problem is all spring Boateng has been playing in the trequartista role behind the strikers, and he has done so well. It was only when Allegri placed Boateng here that the team started to play convincingly. So although I agree that Boateng's playing style is really best cut for the running midfielder role - there is a huge unknown here (and finally I'm about to get to the point):
Who will be the third man in the attack?
We assume we have the three midfielders we have discussed above (and that Milan has signed a good creator). We also assume that Milan will play with two strikers (Ibrahimovic and Pato) and that the midfield will be supported by two attacking full-backs (Abate and new Taiwo).
One role remains and who will be played there will pretty much determine Milan's style of playing next year. Here are the main options:
So who is the third man? Floor's open
Cleaner: van Bommel, Ambrosini, Thiago Silva
Runner: Boateng, Flamini, Gattuso, Emanuelson, Strasser
Creator: Seedorf, Merkel
Seedorf is rumoured to be on his way out and Merkel is still too young. So a new player is absolutely needed there.
But you saw in bold Boateng's name in the "runner" role. The problem is all spring Boateng has been playing in the trequartista role behind the strikers, and he has done so well. It was only when Allegri placed Boateng here that the team started to play convincingly. So although I agree that Boateng's playing style is really best cut for the running midfielder role - there is a huge unknown here (and finally I'm about to get to the point):
Who will be the third man in the attack?
We assume we have the three midfielders we have discussed above (and that Milan has signed a good creator). We also assume that Milan will play with two strikers (Ibrahimovic and Pato) and that the midfield will be supported by two attacking full-backs (Abate and new Taiwo).
One role remains and who will be played there will pretty much determine Milan's style of playing next year. Here are the main options:
- The top of the midfield diamond. This is pretty much how Milan played this spring. Boateng is the only player that did really well in that role, which is not really a trequartista but rather a powerful midfielder that operates in the centre, deep. I have not seen Strasser and Merkel enough to judge them, but I pretty much thing Boateng is the only option if this is how we want to play. Flamini could do it but I would not want him there.
- The number 10. This would be a more attacking player, and a player who gets and distributes a lot of balls. A Rui Costa, for those who read the post yesterday. Cassano could play in that role but he is for obvious reasons not a reliable player. We can't build a team around him, but when on form he could be useful in particular at home against bottom of the table teams. If we want to play a number 10, we should buy a number 10. And maybe that is what Ganso is all about
- The fast and furious. I find a tad odd to play a winger centrally. I don't want anyone in this position, but I'm listing it as this is how Robinho was played for most of the first half of the season. You get little creativity for the strikers and almost no ball-winning skills (although defensively this role could be useful with a player who can cut of much of the midfield with his runs)
- The three man attack. A three-man attack would in many ways be an attractive option. Only problem is that would mean playing Pato in a winger/striker position, which is not ideal. And playing Ibra on the wing is unthinkable. But with one of them out injured (or banned...) I would like to see two wingers around them. Robinho could play to the left. Surely the rumours about Ronaldo are to be ignored but there could be some substance in the rumours about Gareth Bale. In particular if Milan finds a strong "creator" on the left of the midfield, it would be useful to play a winger with defensive back-up skills.
So who is the third man? Floor's open
Thursday 19 May 2011
il Metron'oumo
I'm not really ready to fully comment on the Milan transfer season just despite a flurry of activity which in particular includes the contract extensions of Super-Pippo Inzaghi (!), Nesta, van Bommel and Thiago Silva. Very good.
But. As per an OT comment to a previous post, we now also need to say farewell to Andra Pirlo, 32 years of age this very day. I can see why both parties see mutual benefit in a separation. Andrea has played very little this season. Mostly due to injury but he clearly does not fit Allegri's style of playing. And he is quite an expense with a salary around Euro 6 million a year. Nevertheless. It feels sad.
The story of Pirlo in Milan is a beautiful one. Pirlo actually came to Milan from archrivals Inter back in 2001. According to Wikipedia he made 22 performances in black and blue but I can only remeber one, for a static Inter that lost the Champions League qualifyer in 2000 to Helsingborg (by the way the last time a Swedish club qualified for the group stage, pretty unimpressive). Then he went on loan back to his youth club Brescia and when he joined Milan as a 22-year old it was a bit unclear what we had purchased: the biggest promise in the game or a pretty could-have-been boy? He had not scored for a long time when he joined Milan (in fact he never scored a goal for Inter) and despite playing regularly for Inter as a teen starlet, the career hadn't really taken off.
The first season at Milan was also tough on the young lad. Milan in 2001 was a club that - apart from the magnificant spring in 1999 that surprisingly won us the scudetto and two unbelieveble derbies in 2000 - really had not shown much since 1994. OK, there was another scudetto in 1996 but Milan had not been shining like they used to. Strange players had been signed (of course with exceptions like Sheva) and although expectations were always high - the fans' confidence in the club's transfer policy was low.
In 2001, things were supposed to be different. Terim was brought on as coach and he brought with him Rui Costa, the regista of registas, a players who is cut for one role and one role only - the number 10 behind 2 strikers.
The problem for Pirlo was - this is where he was playing too. Pirlo was brought on as a Rui Costa understudy and if there was any doubt about that Ancelotti (who soon replaced the Terim) could not be any cleared when he said he would only play Rui Costa and Pirlo together when he was allowed to field 12 players. Must have been a huge confidence boost for young Andrea who had actually shone when given the odd chance.
But then Ancelotti made what must be up there on the list of "most brilliant football manager moves of all time" (any contributions, anyone?). When the season 2002-2003 started, there they were together: Rui Costa in his regular number 10 role and Andrea Pirlo as a deep miedfielder or a high libero if you will.
Football coaches since then have been talking about the "Pirlo role". With Pirlo as the conductor of the Milan game we were admitteldly at times a tad slow but still Pirlo was the pace-setter that eventually set Milan back on track with a Champions League and cup title 2003, Scudetto 2004, Champions League final in 2005 and another Champions League title in 2007. In between, he played the exact same role for the Italy that won the 2006 world cup and it was his brilliant passing game and touch in that tournament that made his a household name world wide.
He is not expected to sign for Juventus. It will be strange seeing him in the Juve colours but nevertheless I wish him all the best. And I thank you Andrea, for this.
And of course Andrea should thank his Sancho Panza during all these years. But we are not saying goodbye to him just yet. I hope.
But. As per an OT comment to a previous post, we now also need to say farewell to Andra Pirlo, 32 years of age this very day. I can see why both parties see mutual benefit in a separation. Andrea has played very little this season. Mostly due to injury but he clearly does not fit Allegri's style of playing. And he is quite an expense with a salary around Euro 6 million a year. Nevertheless. It feels sad.
The story of Pirlo in Milan is a beautiful one. Pirlo actually came to Milan from archrivals Inter back in 2001. According to Wikipedia he made 22 performances in black and blue but I can only remeber one, for a static Inter that lost the Champions League qualifyer in 2000 to Helsingborg (by the way the last time a Swedish club qualified for the group stage, pretty unimpressive). Then he went on loan back to his youth club Brescia and when he joined Milan as a 22-year old it was a bit unclear what we had purchased: the biggest promise in the game or a pretty could-have-been boy? He had not scored for a long time when he joined Milan (in fact he never scored a goal for Inter) and despite playing regularly for Inter as a teen starlet, the career hadn't really taken off.
The first season at Milan was also tough on the young lad. Milan in 2001 was a club that - apart from the magnificant spring in 1999 that surprisingly won us the scudetto and two unbelieveble derbies in 2000 - really had not shown much since 1994. OK, there was another scudetto in 1996 but Milan had not been shining like they used to. Strange players had been signed (of course with exceptions like Sheva) and although expectations were always high - the fans' confidence in the club's transfer policy was low.
In 2001, things were supposed to be different. Terim was brought on as coach and he brought with him Rui Costa, the regista of registas, a players who is cut for one role and one role only - the number 10 behind 2 strikers.
The problem for Pirlo was - this is where he was playing too. Pirlo was brought on as a Rui Costa understudy and if there was any doubt about that Ancelotti (who soon replaced the Terim) could not be any cleared when he said he would only play Rui Costa and Pirlo together when he was allowed to field 12 players. Must have been a huge confidence boost for young Andrea who had actually shone when given the odd chance.
But then Ancelotti made what must be up there on the list of "most brilliant football manager moves of all time" (any contributions, anyone?). When the season 2002-2003 started, there they were together: Rui Costa in his regular number 10 role and Andrea Pirlo as a deep miedfielder or a high libero if you will.
Football coaches since then have been talking about the "Pirlo role". With Pirlo as the conductor of the Milan game we were admitteldly at times a tad slow but still Pirlo was the pace-setter that eventually set Milan back on track with a Champions League and cup title 2003, Scudetto 2004, Champions League final in 2005 and another Champions League title in 2007. In between, he played the exact same role for the Italy that won the 2006 world cup and it was his brilliant passing game and touch in that tournament that made his a household name world wide.
He is not expected to sign for Juventus. It will be strange seeing him in the Juve colours but nevertheless I wish him all the best. And I thank you Andrea, for this.
And of course Andrea should thank his Sancho Panza during all these years. But we are not saying goodbye to him just yet. I hope.
Monday 16 May 2011
Premature predictions II
This is a slightly modified version of a post from last week that Blogger was unable to keep in its cloud. Big fat boo to you for that, blogger. But I found some old draft that I tweaked a bit. But it does not deal with this weekend, big win for Spurs, actually, big loss for Örebro SK yet again. And a Swedish hockey collapse that is actually embarrassing. Anyway, here it goes (I deleted the beginning since it's outdated, hence the very succint intro).
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Let's look forward to the Europa League.
First. Let's face it. Even passing through the second round (where we start) will not be easy for Örebro. But. The games are played when most teams are in pre-season training. That gives us a better chance.
Örebro will play a seeded team (or if the seeded team is eliminated in the first round, the team that beat it (which means we cannot exclude the chance of playing for example Fuglafjordir from the Faroe Islands or Fola Esch from Luxembourg, but let's not count on it). It is all very much up in the air as few leagues and cups are finally decided. But with good Wikipediaing you get a good feel for where things are going.
Having a look at the likely opponents for Örebro in the 2nd round, we can list them in some groups. After the draw, we can say that the opposition falls into one of seven categories:
Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one
Fulham look likely to qualify on a fair play ticket. We can confuse Fulham with very similar jerseys. Otherwise we're pretty screwed here. But they will be in between holiday and pre-season. Maybe there is a chance after all.
Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective
The Belgian qualifyer from their internal Euro League play-off, which could well be a strong team like Club Brugge (would the easier option which is Westerlo)
The winner from the Dutch play-off between Groningen, Roda, den Haag and Heracles. None impossible, all hard but within driving distance so I would be kinna happy
Red Bull Salzburg. My mates in Salzburg would host me and support Örebro (as good fans of the real Salzburg, they support any team playing against them
Austria Wien. For similar reasons, but in Vienna my friends support Rapid
Anorthosis. Hey, Cyprus
Nacional. Hey, Madeira
Just a nightmare (hard opponent, but not very known to the crowds, difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me)
Steua or Dinamo Bukarest. A fallen super power but still capable
Zilina. Failed in Champions League but gained useful experience
Red Star. See Steua.
Sherif. A Moldovan team that has impressed before but failed to win its 11th straight Moldovan title
Nightmare trip for obvious reasons
Quarabag. Azerbaijan, anyone?
Aktobe. Glorious nation of Kazakstan, anyone?
Dynamo Tbilsi. A bit of Georgian civil unrest, anyone?
Maccabi Tel Aviv. A missile in the head, anyone?
Maccabi Netanya. And another one?
Difficult away game but it feel like we have a good chance
CSKA or Lokomotiv Sofia. Teams that are not what they used to be.
Vorskla Poltava (the revenge we have waited for for 300 years)
Gaziantespor. The Turkish Süperliga used to predictable. Not no more it isn't. Anyone with info on these guys?
Atromitos. 12th in the Greek Super League. That is close to a dream draw. We need AEK Athens to win the Champions League for Atromitos to qualify. And it is looking good so far. Go, AEK.
RNK. I will never under estimate Croatian teams.
Sarajevo. Will the Bosnian teams be allowed to play, is it only the national team that is banned?
Rabotnicki. Would like to go to Skopje one day.
Varazdin. See RNK, although this team looks weaker on paper. Oops, almost did it.
50/50 game with a not so scary away game
Dundee Utd. I reported from a friendly against them and Örebro in the mid-90s. Lars Zetterlund was one of their best players.
Midtjylland or Silkeborg (against Silkeborg we should win - if they win the cup we move this to dream draw)
Thun or Luzern. 1n 2005 Thun knocked out Malmö, embarressed themselves in Champions League and all players slept with a 15-year old. Have not heard from them since
Jablonec. Actually the only team we ever knocked out in the UEFA-cup. I don't count Avenir Beggen as we used too many foreigners and were disqualified
Vålerenga. The Norwegian Hammarby. Very easy to feel repulsiveness.
Jangiellonia. The Polish league has not impressed much lately.
Tromsö. At least there will be no need to use floodlights.
Ålesund. No floodlights here either I suppose. Another team qualifying on a fair play ticket.
Spartak Trnava. Lacks a couple of consonants.
A dream draw from a sporting perspective - although it by no means mean we go through
Ventspils. Always a top team in Latvia and with loads of European experience - but not a very impressive record. Not sure I can convince my wife to celebrate her birthday in Ventspils, though
Bohemians. An Irish equivalent of Ventspils. And it's about time I go to Dublin
AEK Larnaca. Not at all as good a team from Cyprus.
Levadia. The Estonian equivalent of Ventspils. But Tallin sounds more attractive than Ventspils
St. Patric's. Pretty much the same as Bohemians
Honka. The club we once signed Roni Porokara from. We played 1-1 in a friendly against them in 2008, but we have moved up since then.
If we then proceed to the third round, the opposition is guaranteed to be tough.
Some of the teams mentioned above from the second round would be seeded also in a third round (Fulham/Tottenham for sure, and a bunch of ten or so others).
Possible new teams include, in some order of anticipated difficulty:
Should we say a 50% chance of qualifying for the third round, and if so a 25% chance of winning in the third? That means 12.5% of playing in the play-off. And there, it will be real tough. We're talking teams that missed Champions League and the likes of Liverpool or Tottenham, Lazio and Palermo, PSV, Sporting Lisbon, Braga, Schalke, PSG, Spartak, Bilbao, Sevilla. Europa League is far far away. But I'm dreaming.
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Let's look forward to the Europa League.
First. Let's face it. Even passing through the second round (where we start) will not be easy for Örebro. But. The games are played when most teams are in pre-season training. That gives us a better chance.
Örebro will play a seeded team (or if the seeded team is eliminated in the first round, the team that beat it (which means we cannot exclude the chance of playing for example Fuglafjordir from the Faroe Islands or Fola Esch from Luxembourg, but let's not count on it). It is all very much up in the air as few leagues and cups are finally decided. But with good Wikipediaing you get a good feel for where things are going.
Having a look at the likely opponents for Örebro in the 2nd round, we can list them in some groups. After the draw, we can say that the opposition falls into one of seven categories:
- 50/50 game with a not so scary away game: 23.1%. Second best option. Good solid opposition but we are at least just as good
- Difficult away game but it feels like we have a good chance: 20.5%. A bit less appealing, one of these away games where you feel you will lose on a late penalty and then play 0-0 at home.
- Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective: 15.4%. From a very egoistic perspective, this would be good. And the opposition is not by any means impossible.
- Dream draw: 15.4%. Of course what one hopes for, we don't want the adventure to end here.
- Nightmare draw but not for sporting reasons: 12.8%. I have a feeling we will play Aktobe. I just feel it.
- Just a nightmare (hard opponent and difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me): 10.3%. Worst case scenarios.
- Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one: 2.5% risk/chance
Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one
Fulham look likely to qualify on a fair play ticket. We can confuse Fulham with very similar jerseys. Otherwise we're pretty screwed here. But they will be in between holiday and pre-season. Maybe there is a chance after all.
Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective
The Belgian qualifyer from their internal Euro League play-off, which could well be a strong team like Club Brugge (would the easier option which is Westerlo)
The winner from the Dutch play-off between Groningen, Roda, den Haag and Heracles. None impossible, all hard but within driving distance so I would be kinna happy
Red Bull Salzburg. My mates in Salzburg would host me and support Örebro (as good fans of the real Salzburg, they support any team playing against them
Austria Wien. For similar reasons, but in Vienna my friends support Rapid
Anorthosis. Hey, Cyprus
Nacional. Hey, Madeira
Just a nightmare (hard opponent, but not very known to the crowds, difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me)
Steua or Dinamo Bukarest. A fallen super power but still capable
Zilina. Failed in Champions League but gained useful experience
Red Star. See Steua.
Sherif. A Moldovan team that has impressed before but failed to win its 11th straight Moldovan title
Nightmare trip for obvious reasons
Quarabag. Azerbaijan, anyone?
Aktobe. Glorious nation of Kazakstan, anyone?
Dynamo Tbilsi. A bit of Georgian civil unrest, anyone?
Maccabi Tel Aviv. A missile in the head, anyone?
Maccabi Netanya. And another one?
Difficult away game but it feel like we have a good chance
CSKA or Lokomotiv Sofia. Teams that are not what they used to be.
Vorskla Poltava (the revenge we have waited for for 300 years)
Gaziantespor. The Turkish Süperliga used to predictable. Not no more it isn't. Anyone with info on these guys?
Atromitos. 12th in the Greek Super League. That is close to a dream draw. We need AEK Athens to win the Champions League for Atromitos to qualify. And it is looking good so far. Go, AEK.
RNK. I will never under estimate Croatian teams.
Sarajevo. Will the Bosnian teams be allowed to play, is it only the national team that is banned?
Rabotnicki. Would like to go to Skopje one day.
Varazdin. See RNK, although this team looks weaker on paper. Oops, almost did it.
50/50 game with a not so scary away game
Dundee Utd. I reported from a friendly against them and Örebro in the mid-90s. Lars Zetterlund was one of their best players.
Midtjylland or Silkeborg (against Silkeborg we should win - if they win the cup we move this to dream draw)
Thun or Luzern. 1n 2005 Thun knocked out Malmö, embarressed themselves in Champions League and all players slept with a 15-year old. Have not heard from them since
Jablonec. Actually the only team we ever knocked out in the UEFA-cup. I don't count Avenir Beggen as we used too many foreigners and were disqualified
Vålerenga. The Norwegian Hammarby. Very easy to feel repulsiveness.
Jangiellonia. The Polish league has not impressed much lately.
Tromsö. At least there will be no need to use floodlights.
Ålesund. No floodlights here either I suppose. Another team qualifying on a fair play ticket.
Spartak Trnava. Lacks a couple of consonants.
A dream draw from a sporting perspective - although it by no means mean we go through
Ventspils. Always a top team in Latvia and with loads of European experience - but not a very impressive record. Not sure I can convince my wife to celebrate her birthday in Ventspils, though
Bohemians. An Irish equivalent of Ventspils. And it's about time I go to Dublin
AEK Larnaca. Not at all as good a team from Cyprus.
Levadia. The Estonian equivalent of Ventspils. But Tallin sounds more attractive than Ventspils
St. Patric's. Pretty much the same as Bohemians
Honka. The club we once signed Roni Porokara from. We played 1-1 in a friendly against them in 2008, but we have moved up since then.
If we then proceed to the third round, the opposition is guaranteed to be tough.
Some of the teams mentioned above from the second round would be seeded also in a third round (Fulham/Tottenham for sure, and a bunch of ten or so others).
Possible new teams include, in some order of anticipated difficulty:
- Atlectico de Madrid: They can always screw up, but we are talking of a different level than Örebro here
- Lazio or Roma
- Mainz
- Celtic (although they are likely to be moved up to the play-off round depending on what Braga does in the Portuguese league - it's complicated)
- Stoke - the English cup surprises make the draw a tad more humane
- Sochaux
- Panathinaikos. Not as good as in the Saravakos days but still a consistent top team in Greece, although slacking behind Olympiakos. Could also be for example Paok Saloniki, which would be much much better
- Bursaspor
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- Guimares
- Sparta Prag
- AZ Alkmaar. Rasmus Elm and Pontus Wernbloom in a team in the decline. Would be a good draw, a stadium sell-out but still not impossible. And within driving distance for me
- Hapoel Tel Aviv
- Young Boys
- Rapid Bukaresti
- Levski Sofia
- CSKA or Slavia Sofia
- Karpaty Lviv
- Anderlecht. Yes, please! Hopefully without Lukaku, and nearly within walking distance for me
- Brondby
- Mlada
Should we say a 50% chance of qualifying for the third round, and if so a 25% chance of winning in the third? That means 12.5% of playing in the play-off. And there, it will be real tough. We're talking teams that missed Champions League and the likes of Liverpool or Tottenham, Lazio and Palermo, PSV, Sporting Lisbon, Braga, Schalke, PSG, Spartak, Bilbao, Sevilla. Europa League is far far away. But I'm dreaming.
Magnificent steel (another stolen headline)
The teams that have already qualified for the Champions League group stage next season are: Manchester United, Barcelona, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Inter, Porto, Milan, Shaktar, Valencia, CSKA Moskow, Zenit, Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiakos, Ajax, Lille, Dortmund, Napoli and ... Otelul Galati.
Since the Romanian league is pretty entertaining in general and since we need to know a bit more of Otelul, let me simply refer to the excellent competing blog In bed with Maradona. It's so good I may never see you again. I enjoyed it while it lasted.
Since the Romanian league is pretty entertaining in general and since we need to know a bit more of Otelul, let me simply refer to the excellent competing blog In bed with Maradona. It's so good I may never see you again. I enjoyed it while it lasted.
Prince of Pop
The title is not mine but I thought I had to share Kevin Prince's imitation of Michael Jackson with you.
Monday 9 May 2011
Allegro...lento...moderato...Tempo I
Mixed emotions from this weekend.
On the one hand, Milan won their 18th scudetto, the first since 2004 and their first title since Champions League since 2007. That is pretty big. But we knew it would happen at some stage and watching a recording of a goalless game in the middle of the night, slightly tipsy and with my wife asleep downstairs, was not really the receipe for a scudetto party.
On the other, Örebro suddenly look like a team that will not be in the title chase this year. When you lose games when you have 78% possession, you will not win the league. That's pretty much all I heard from Friday night's game, the result made me so depressed I can't even read about it. Heard Bedoya scored again - and he will probably leave the club for bigger and more important things (according to him) very soon. Misery.
And so Spurs, another team incapable of making use of possession and dominance in general. What a terrible spring Spurs have had. Everton's win gave a little, little opening for chasing down City, but that little glimmer of hope lasted for just a few hours. Then we drew Blackpool, the worst team in the league after Christmas. At home. With Bale injured. Misery.
So let's focus on the Champions and what made them Champions.
Since I will go on about this for quite some time below and may lose most of you on the way (but hey, there will be hyperlinks to violent actions), here's a summary:
Before this blog existed I made yet another very bad prediction of Serie A. I will come back to that when it's all over, but for AC Milan I predicted a fourth spot, with the motivation "No indication that anything will improve on last year, but maybe we will not have to suffer from naiive tactics with Leonardo gone". That was on 14th August. Then in order of chronology (and arguable in order of importance), the following happened:
A self-confident statement by a self-confident man.
But look at his record since he left Sweden in 2001 (ignoring that Juventus lost their scudetti of 2005 and 2006 after calciopoli):
I think there is quite a consensus as to what Zlatan brought to the pique-nique. A winning mentality, goals created out of nothing, the feeling of a mercenary soldier that can carry a whole army on his shoulders. Without Zlatan, Allegri could have been out of the title race, Champions League, and possibly his job, before Christmas.
But as the autumn turned into winter, Milan started to find something new. Allegri put one of Pato and Robinho on the bench and played a midfielder in the role of the trequartista. The one that did it best was Kevin Prince Boateng. The tactical change (which Leonardo would not have done with a gun against his forehead) enabled Milan to gain possession quickly, to maintain possession and to attack with more depth. Despite a season with enourmous injury problems, Allegri has developed a Stilo Milan. It works, most pieces are there, some pieces are still missing but it is pretty easy to see what needs to be done in the transfer market to turn this into a team that is ready to compete on the European scene next year.
On the one hand, Milan won their 18th scudetto, the first since 2004 and their first title since Champions League since 2007. That is pretty big. But we knew it would happen at some stage and watching a recording of a goalless game in the middle of the night, slightly tipsy and with my wife asleep downstairs, was not really the receipe for a scudetto party.
On the other, Örebro suddenly look like a team that will not be in the title chase this year. When you lose games when you have 78% possession, you will not win the league. That's pretty much all I heard from Friday night's game, the result made me so depressed I can't even read about it. Heard Bedoya scored again - and he will probably leave the club for bigger and more important things (according to him) very soon. Misery.
And so Spurs, another team incapable of making use of possession and dominance in general. What a terrible spring Spurs have had. Everton's win gave a little, little opening for chasing down City, but that little glimmer of hope lasted for just a few hours. Then we drew Blackpool, the worst team in the league after Christmas. At home. With Bale injured. Misery.
So let's focus on the Champions and what made them Champions.
Since I will go on about this for quite some time below and may lose most of you on the way (but hey, there will be hyperlinks to violent actions), here's a summary:
- Winning the 6-point games. 12 points out of 12 against the other title challengers Inter and Napoli is really what won it
- Allegri finding a new Milan identity
- Zlatan showing winning mentality before Milan had found that new Milan identity
- Clarence Seedorf (on my order!) waking up from the dead
- van Bommel creating balance when a raft of injuries tore apart the midfield
- Pato maintaining the goal scoring record
- Last but not least, Thiago Silva, being the best (?) defender in the game
Before this blog existed I made yet another very bad prediction of Serie A. I will come back to that when it's all over, but for AC Milan I predicted a fourth spot, with the motivation "No indication that anything will improve on last year, but maybe we will not have to suffer from naiive tactics with Leonardo gone". That was on 14th August. Then in order of chronology (and arguable in order of importance), the following happened:
- 21 Aug: I got married.
- 28 Aug: Zlatan signs for AC Milan on a loan+option deal
- 31 Aug: Robinho signs for AC Milan
A self-confident statement by a self-confident man.
But look at his record since he left Sweden in 2001 (ignoring that Juventus lost their scudetti of 2005 and 2006 after calciopoli):
- 2001/2002, Ajax: Champion
- 2002/2003, Ajax: runner-up
- 2003/2004, Ajax: Champion
- 2004/2005, Juventus: Champion
- 2005/2006, Juventus: Champion
- 2006/2007, Inter: Champion
- 2007/2008, Inter: Champion
- 2008/2009, Inter: Champion
- 2009/2010, Barcelona: Champion
- 2010/2011, Milan: Champion
I think there is quite a consensus as to what Zlatan brought to the pique-nique. A winning mentality, goals created out of nothing, the feeling of a mercenary soldier that can carry a whole army on his shoulders. Without Zlatan, Allegri could have been out of the title race, Champions League, and possibly his job, before Christmas.
But as the autumn turned into winter, Milan started to find something new. Allegri put one of Pato and Robinho on the bench and played a midfielder in the role of the trequartista. The one that did it best was Kevin Prince Boateng. The tactical change (which Leonardo would not have done with a gun against his forehead) enabled Milan to gain possession quickly, to maintain possession and to attack with more depth. Despite a season with enourmous injury problems, Allegri has developed a Stilo Milan. It works, most pieces are there, some pieces are still missing but it is pretty easy to see what needs to be done in the transfer market to turn this into a team that is ready to compete on the European scene next year.
- Starting from the front, Zlatan/Pato has the potential of being a very prolific couple up front. Two problems to tackle though: Pato is not a clever footballer. And Zlatan does not respect Pato as he is not a clever footballer. The couple should now spend the summer finding inspiration with Helena and Barabara, and then return to pre-season camp full of ambition to shape their respective roles on the squad for next year. Cassano and Robinho are not bad alternatives behind them. And Pippo, if he stays alive and fit.
- In the trequartista role, Boateng works. He is not a fantastic footballer, but a type cast for the role. He has found confidence, his feet look better than before, and he has the physique and the smartness to get into the box without marking over and over again. He should polish his finishing this summer
- On the three-man midfield, the long serving trio Pirlo, Ambrosini and Gattuso did not play much due to injuries. OK, Gattuso played quite a bit, but constantly with new constellations and with varying result. The two men that really made the mark were instead two old Dutchmen. Seedorf, who sometime in February/March started to play at the level we know he has, and van Bommel, who took the responsibility of the achieving balance in the midfield. Allegri should think a bit on what to do with the midfield next season. The Dutchmen played so well they need to be considered for the starting line up, but who will complement them? Pirlo, who wants to be both the balance (van Bommel) and the creativity (Seedorf) of the midfield? What to do with the two loyal warriors Gattuso and Ambrosini? The overpaid Flamini? Are the youngsters Emanuelson, Strasser and Merkel what we need for the future? They have not proven it yet. Emanuelson may be a better alternative as full back, actually
- In the defence line, Abbiati has become a reliable goalie. Apart from being a fascist, there's little not to like about him. Thiago Silva and Nesta are a fantastic central defence. Yepes has proven a good replacement, but Sokratis must. The full backs were for long the biggest problem. That problem looks half solved as Abate during this season has finally managed to control his feet, yet maintain his speed. On the left side, we need a class player. Coentrao is the top of my list, but if Bale needs to leave Spurs Milan should be his next home
Friday 6 May 2011
The Hugmark family derby
Is Örebro-Kalmar. It is about to start, but I need to rush out. Just a quick note in rememberence of my two beloved grand fathers, both dedicated Kalmar supporters and as long as their eyes allowed it frequent visitors at Fredrikskans. I truly miss nagging on them after an Örebro win.
On the line up, not good that Haddad and Gerzic are still out. The fatzo Paulinho and the old Finn Norback aren't quite the same.
Go ÖSK! RIP, morfar och farfar
On the line up, not good that Haddad and Gerzic are still out. The fatzo Paulinho and the old Finn Norback aren't quite the same.
Go ÖSK! RIP, morfar och farfar
Port proximity
Porto against Braga in the Europa League final. That's pretty interesting. In an era of clasico galore, we now, for the first time in history, have a real derby in in a European final. That does not mean we have not seen bitter rivals in finals before, but distance wise we have never really seen a derby. Milan-Inter in the semis 2003 was as close as we got.
Oporto and Braga are according to google maps 55.9 km from each other. No one has ever been near that close before. Here are a few finals played between clubs within close range:
Oporto and Braga are according to google maps 55.9 km from each other. No one has ever been near that close before. Here are a few finals played between clubs within close range:
- Milan-Juventus, Champions League final 2003: 141 km
- Mechelen-Ajax, Cupwinners' cup final 1988: 182 km
- Tottenham-Wolverhampton, UEFA cup final 1972: 209 km
- Parma-Juventus, UEFA cup final 1995: 243 km
- Manchester United-Chelsea, Champions League final 2008: 334 km
- Real Madrid-Valencia, Champions League final 2000: 355 km
- Juventus-Fiorentina, UEFA cup final 1990: 422 km
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