Premature predictions II

This is a slightly modified version of a post from last week that Blogger was unable to keep in its cloud.  Big fat boo to you for that, blogger.  But I found some old draft that I tweaked a bit.  But it does not deal with this weekend,  big win for Spurs, actually, big loss for Örebro SK yet again.  And a Swedish hockey collapse that is actually embarrassing.  Anyway, here it goes (I deleted the beginning since it's outdated, hence the very succint intro).

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Let's look forward to the Europa League.

First.   Let's face it.  Even passing through the second round (where we start) will not be easy for Örebro.  But. The games are played when most teams are in pre-season training.  That gives us a better chance.

Örebro will play a seeded team (or if the seeded team is eliminated in the first round, the team that beat it (which means we cannot exclude the chance of playing for example Fuglafjordir from the Faroe Islands or Fola Esch from Luxembourg, but let's not count on it).  It is all very much up in the air as few leagues and cups are finally decided.  But with good Wikipediaing you get a good feel for where things are going.

Having a look at the likely opponents for Örebro in the 2nd round, we can list them in some groups.  After the draw, we can say that the opposition falls into one of seven categories:

• 50/50 game with a not so scary away game: 23.1%.  Second best option.  Good solid opposition but we are at least just as good
• Difficult away game but it feels like we have a good chance: 20.5%.  A bit less appealing, one of these away games where you feel you will lose on a late penalty and then play 0-0 at home.
• Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective: 15.4%.  From a very egoistic perspective, this would be good.  And the opposition is not by any means impossible.
• Dream draw: 15.4%.  Of course what one hopes for, we don't want the adventure to end here.
• Nightmare draw but not for sporting reasons: 12.8%.  I have a feeling we will play Aktobe.  I just feel it.
• Just a nightmare (hard opponent and difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me): 10.3%.  Worst case scenarios.
• Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one: 2.5% risk/chance

Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one
Fulham look likely to qualify on a fair play ticket.  We can confuse Fulham with very similar jerseys.  Otherwise we're pretty screwed here.  But they will be in between holiday and pre-season.  Maybe there is a chance after all.

Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective
The Belgian qualifyer from their internal Euro League play-off, which could well be a strong team like Club Brugge (would the easier option which is Westerlo)

The winner from the Dutch play-off between Groningen, Roda, den Haag and Heracles.  None impossible, all hard but within driving distance so I would be kinna happy

Red Bull Salzburg.  My mates in Salzburg would host me and support Örebro (as good fans of the real Salzburg, they support any team playing against them

Austria Wien. For similar reasons, but in Vienna my friends support Rapid

Anorthosis.  Hey, Cyprus

Nacional.  Hey, Madeira

Just a nightmare (hard opponent, but not very known to the crowds, difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me)
Steua or Dinamo Bukarest.  A fallen super power but still capable
Zilina.  Failed in Champions League but gained useful experience
Red Star.  See Steua.
Sherif. A Moldovan team that has impressed before but failed to win its 11th straight Moldovan title

Nightmare trip for obvious reasons
Quarabag.  Azerbaijan, anyone?
Aktobe.  Glorious nation of Kazakstan, anyone?
Dynamo Tbilsi.  A bit of Georgian civil unrest, anyone?
Maccabi Tel Aviv.  A missile in the head, anyone?
Maccabi Netanya. And another one?

Difficult away game but it feel like we have a good chance
CSKA or Lokomotiv Sofia.  Teams that are not what they used to be.
Vorskla Poltava (the revenge we have waited for for 300 years)
Gaziantespor. The Turkish Süperliga used to predictable. Not no more it isn't. Anyone with info on these guys?
Atromitos. 12th in the Greek Super League. That is close to a dream draw.  We need AEK Athens to win the Champions League for Atromitos to qualify.  And it is looking good so far.  Go, AEK.
RNK. I will never under estimate Croatian teams.
Sarajevo.  Will the Bosnian teams be allowed to play, is it only the national team that is banned?
Rabotnicki. Would like to go to Skopje one day.
Varazdin. See RNK, although this team looks weaker on paper.  Oops, almost did it.

50/50 game with a not so scary away game
Dundee Utd.  I reported from a friendly against them and Örebro in the mid-90s. Lars Zetterlund was one of their best players.
Midtjylland or Silkeborg (against Silkeborg we should win - if they win the cup we move this to dream draw)
Thun or Luzern.  1n 2005 Thun knocked out Malmö, embarressed themselves in Champions League and all players slept with a 15-year old.  Have not heard from them since
Jablonec.  Actually the only team we ever knocked out in the UEFA-cup.  I don't count Avenir Beggen as we used too many foreigners and were disqualified
Vålerenga. The Norwegian Hammarby. Very easy to feel repulsiveness.
Jangiellonia.  The Polish league has not impressed much lately.
Tromsö.  At least there will be no need to use floodlights.
Ålesund.  No floodlights here either I suppose. Another team qualifying on a fair play ticket.
Spartak Trnava.  Lacks a couple of consonants.

A dream draw from a sporting perspective - although it by no means mean we go through
Ventspils.  Always a top team in Latvia and with loads of European experience - but not a very impressive record.  Not sure I can convince my wife to celebrate her birthday in Ventspils, though
Bohemians.  An Irish equivalent of Ventspils.  And it's about time I go to Dublin
AEK Larnaca. Not at all as good a team from Cyprus.
Levadia.  The Estonian equivalent of Ventspils.  But Tallin sounds more attractive than Ventspils
St. Patric's. Pretty much the same as Bohemians
Honka.  The club we once signed Roni Porokara from.  We played 1-1 in a friendly against them in 2008, but we have moved up since then.

If we then proceed to the third round, the opposition is guaranteed to be tough.

Some of the teams mentioned above from the second round would be seeded also in a third round (Fulham/Tottenham for sure, and a bunch of ten or so others).

Possible new teams include, in some order of anticipated difficulty:

• Atlectico de Madrid: They can always screw up, but we are talking of a different level than Örebro here
• Lazio or Roma
• Mainz
• Celtic (although they are likely to be moved up to the play-off round depending on what Braga does in the Portuguese league - it's complicated)
• Stoke - the English cup surprises make the draw a tad more humane
• Sochaux
• Panathinaikos.  Not as good as in the Saravakos days but still a consistent top team in Greece, although slacking behind Olympiakos.  Could also be for example Paok Saloniki, which would be much much better
• Bursaspor
• Lokomotiv Moscow
• Guimares
• Sparta Prag
• AZ Alkmaar.  Rasmus Elm and Pontus Wernbloom in a team in the decline.  Would be a good draw, a stadium sell-out but still not impossible.  And within driving distance for me
• Hapoel Tel Aviv
• Young Boys
• Rapid Bukaresti
• Levski Sofia
• CSKA or Slavia Sofia
• Karpaty Lviv
• Anderlecht. Yes, please! Hopefully without Lukaku, and nearly within walking distance for me
• Brondby
• Mlada

Could be worse actually.

Should we say a 50% chance of qualifying for the third round, and if so a 25% chance of winning in the third? That means 12.5% of playing in the play-off.  And there, it will be real tough.  We're talking teams that missed Champions League and the likes of Liverpool or Tottenham, Lazio and Palermo, PSV, Sporting Lisbon, Braga, Schalke, PSG, Spartak, Bilbao, Sevilla.  Europa League is far far away.  But I'm dreaming.