You just got to trust me as this blog did not exist when I predicted the outcome of Premier League, Serie A and Primera Division (I don't like to say "la Liga", so I chose not to).
This post is not bragging (in many instances there is certainly no reason to brag). But assuming I am mainstream, the varied accuarcy of the predictions of the big three could maybe say something of the structure of the different league? Or is it just varying lack of knowledge from my side?
My way of analysing predictions are simple. I predict all positions before the leagues start, if the position is correct I get a 0, otherwise I get the number of points that differ between the predicted position and the actual position. The lower the average score per team, the better.
So let's do them one by one, the big three:
Premier League (actual position, team, predicted position = points)
1. Manchester United (1=0)
2. Chelsea (2=0)
3. Manchester City (3=0)
4. Arsenal (4=0)
5. Tottenham (5=0)
6. Liverpool (6=0)
7. Everton (8=1)
8. Fulham (11=3)
9. Aston Villa (7=2)
10. Sunderland (10=0)
11. West Bromwich (19=8)
12. Newcastle (15=3)
13. Stoke (12=1)
14. Bolton (18=4)
15. Blackburn (13=2)
16. Wigan (16=0)
17. Wolverhampton (17=0)
18. Birmingham (9=9)
19. Blackpool (20=1)
20. West Ham (14=6)
Total: 40, average per team 2.0.
Serie A
1. Milan (4=3)
2. Inter (2=0)
3. Napoli (9=6)
4. Udinese (12=8)
5. Lazio (15=10)
6. Roma (1=5)
7. Juventus (3=4)
8. Palermo (7=1)
9. Fiorentina (8=1)
10. Genoa (5=5)
11. Chievo (18=7)
12. Parma (11=1)
13. Catania (10=3)
14. Cagliari (13=1)
15. Cesena (20=5)
16. Bologna (14=2)
17. Lecce (17=0)
18. Sampdoria (6=12)
19. Brescia (19=0)
20. Bari (16=4)
Total 76, average 3.8 per team
Primera Division
1. Barcelona (2=1)
2. Real Madrid (1=1)
3. Valencia (9=6)
4. Villareal (6=2)
5. Sevilla (4=1)
6. Bilbao (5=1)
7. Atlectico (3=4)
8. Espanyol (11=3)
9. Osasuna (18=9)
10. Gijon (15=5)
11. Malaga (16=5)
12. Racing (12=0)
13. Zaragoza (13=0)
14. Levante (19=5)
15. Sociedad (17=2)
16. Getafe (7=9)
17. Mallorca (10=7)
18. La Coruna (8=10)
19. Hercules (20=1)
20. Almeria (14=6)
Total 78, average 3.9 per team
So. With the exception of a few mishaps (West Brom, Birmingham and maybe West Ham) my prediction of the Premier League was phenomenal (that's right, no bragging). I got nine teams on the exact right spot, and the top 6 in the right order. And had O'Neil resigned before my predition was handed in I would have had Everton as number 7.
In Spain I got the worst result but I claim to be no expert other than knowing a bit of the top 7 or so teams. I think no one in the world had another duo in the top 2, behind them I'm really impressed by Valencia and the rest is pretty much as it should have been, give or take.
But Serie A. I do claim to know a bit about Serie A. Maybe I should stop now. How can I so entirely miss the decline of Sampdoria, the fantastic run of Udinese, the stability of credibility of the new Lazio, the rediculous instability of Roma, and so on? Or should I really have seen that?
There is a difference. Premier League is truly segmented. 6 teams play an entirely different style of football compared to the rest, with superior resources and hence superior players. The rest are also split in layers, those who are good enough to give the big six a go (Everton, Villa and over the past couple of years Fulham), the once that are good enough to be safe from relegation (Sunderland, Stoke) and those who will struggle to stay up.
Serie A used to have all that. Remember the 7 sisters that ruled until 10 years ago. But years of instability that culminated in calciopoli have led to clubs with less financial resources and more focus on developing talents (although in the end, the players from the elephant's graveyard, Milanello, lifted the scudetto).
None of that is new. But with the ego centric view that a blog should have, the results of my predictions constitute solid scientific evidence of the difference in predictability between England and Italy.
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