Edit: Ado Den Haag, not Groningen, won the Dutch play-off. Text amended below. Apologies, blame my football app if you will.
############################
All cups and leagues in Europe are finalised. The summer will now turn into a very brief focus on national teams with qualifyers this weekend and mid-week next. After that, there is the Gold Cup (which after all will feature Alejandro Bedoya), the Swedish League and cup (Örebro are in the quarters and with a good draw!), the transfer season and, starting with a draw on the 20th June, Europa Legue qualifyers.
We now know which team will enter in which round. My previous post on the topic was not very far off: We can get a very tough team, Fulham, in the second round, everything else is doable although no opponents can be considered a shoe-in.
We have an advantage in the fact that most other teams will be in pre-season training for the second round (14 and 21 July). What I did not think of before was that if we are drawn against one of the better teams in the second round, we will take their position as a seeded team in the third round (and hence avoid teams like Atletico Madrid, Palermo, Rennes and Stoke).
So, for the chances of getting all the way to the play-off round (where it will be hard no matter what), it's probably best to be drawn against one of Fulham, Dinamo Bucharest, Red Bull Salzburg, Austria Wien, Anorthosis, Zilina, Nacional, ADO Den Haag, Vorskla Poltava, Sheriff Tirastopol, Lokomotiv Sofia or Gaziantespor.
In that case we are likely to be drawn against a less experiences team that went through in the second round or Hajduk Split, Omonia Nicosia, Legia Warsaw, Ried (Austria), Gomel (Belarus), Senica (Slovakia), Stromgodset (Norway) or Sligo Rovers (Ireland).
So here are draws for the second round which I would like (in order of preference)
1. Den Haag. An unpredictable team (the qualified by beating Groningen on penalties despite winning the first game 5-1), that may be out of focus in early July. Admittedly far from the easiest draw, but within driving distance (even over a day) and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
2. Red Bull Salzburg. I will round up local support for Örebro, Red Bull is a team with aspirations but we have a good chance and with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
3. Austria Wien. For the same reasons as above.
4. Lokomotiv Sofia. Not a top team in Bulgaria, gained the spot in competition with several other teams. And with guaranteed seeding if we proceed to the third round.
5. Westerlo. So convenient. A country side club less than one hour's drive away from home. Unfortunately that would mean no seeding in the third round.
Also a good draw: Any unseeded team from the first round beating a seeded team (some more than others, but all considered a good draw), Bohemians, Levadia, Honka, Larnaca, St. Patrick's, Ventspils.
This would be the true nightmare draws:
1. Fulham. OK, they will be in pre-seaon training, but Fulham takes this seriously. And we should not stand a chance against a team that finished 8th in the premier league.
2. Maccabi Tel Aviv. Tough draw, tough trip, and yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
3. Bnei Metuda. Same as above.
4. Olympiakos Volou. Was in play-off for a Champions League spot in Greece, which means they are not a bad team. And yet we will be unseeded in the third round.
5. Midtjylland. Lost out in the race for third spot on goal difference, and lost the cup final. Midtjylland are a good team in a league that, we have to admit, is superior to the Swedish league. And Midtjylland will be done with pre-season training. And no seeding in the third round.
Also a bad draw: Vojvodina, Tromsö, Quarabag, Aktobe, Dynamo Tbilsi, Ålesund.
Let's hope that fortune (and/or the UEFA officials) are on our side. For it sounds more likely that the Europa League dream will come true if we play Gaziantespor, Sligo Rovers and Anorthosis than if we play Fulham, Altetico Madrid and Roma. The likelihood is about the same.
No comments:
Post a Comment