Mourinhovember 1st quarter analysis

Back to club football after the last break for international games for a while.

Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?

Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out".  Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.

Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4.  Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after.  But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.

2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City.  Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal.  Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.

3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.  6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal.  A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.

4. Levante.  If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top.  A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back.  For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season.  We enjoyed it while it lasted.

5. Udinese.  I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year.  Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.

6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United.  They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2.  Both those games were played at home.  In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home.  If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously.  Chances are they won't be.

7. Lazio.  I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes.  So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.

8. Paris SG.  After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect.  You got your bigs signings in order quickly.  But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.

9. Mönchengladbach.  The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga.  But more of a team for the future.

10. AZ Alkmaar.  Dominating Eredivisie.  And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.

Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)

Losers
1. Inter.  Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal.  And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.

2. Villareal.  Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that.  But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.

3. Hamburger SV.  Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season.  For a team of HSV's size that is no good.

4. Arsenal.  Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership.  But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it.  If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness.  He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.

5. Bourdeaux.  Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.

Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.

The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:

• Barcelona.  You can't afford losing many points in la Liga, and Barcelona are now in a place where they may not afford losing to Real in December.  But after Milan's hick-up in Borisov, a draw in Milan should be enough to win the Champions League group.
• Manchester United. Winning 8-2 against Arsenal, but losing 1-6 at home to City. An uninspired start to Champions League, but still doing what's required.
• Chelsea.  The jury is really still out here, as Chelsea under Vilas-Boas occasionally have flexed muscles but never impressed when they really needed to use them.  In the big games, they have lost to United away (3-1) at to Arsenal at home (3-5), and drawn away to Valencia (1-1). Biggest win so far is 2-0 at home to Leverkusen, who has not impressed anyone.
• Milan. A bad start in the league and without the late equalizer against Barcelona and media focus on the even more miserable starts by Inter and Roma,  there would have been crisis talks in September.  But now on a winning streak in the league, in range of the top and qualified for Champions League knock-out stages, Milan can look forward.
• Tottenham.  A soft start including losing on penalties in the League cup, having the first league game cancelled due to riots and then losing two to Manchester United and City 8-1 on aggregate.  Leaving aside the junior squad that Redknapp sends to the Europa League, Spurs have actually been fantastic since then, with 7 wins and 1 draw in the league and from time to time producing football that should take them back to the Champions League.
• Juventus. Are in a good place, performing better then expected and crowning that with prestige wins against Milan and Inter.

Great Balls of Fire III

Seedings for Euro 2012 are now definite.

Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland

For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4.  Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy.  What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.

The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France.  That would be something else.

The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs.  Let's hope that happens.

In my dream world, I would like to see:

Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic

Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points.  If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.

Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland

OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden.  And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.

Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France

Too tempting.  Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.

Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark

Can we pretend that airplanes on the night sky are shooting stars?

We could really use a bunch of wishes right now.

Here's my wish list for Örebro SK's midseason work, in order of preference.  For transfers, I opt not to mention specific names but rather the types of players we need as I cannot claim to know the huge worldwide market of football players. I don't Örebro's management has that knowledge either, but they should beat me here.

1. Sort out the losing mentality, declare 2012 the year of revenge and make Nordin captain.  I have been quite exhaustive here before, let's not develop further.

2. Contract two good goalkeepers. High on the list as we have lost one and fired one.  Goes without saying that we need to do something about that.  As a true örebroer, and on top of that from Adolfsberg, Oscar Jansson is a romantic wish.  But I think we need two that are good enough to play at a high level.

3. Find a Bedoya carbon copy.  Örebro SK is not the same without an effective, non-stop box-to-box runner.  I would ultimately want to see a Bedoya type player who is even stronger in man-to-man situations.  Bedoya was fairly effective but had a tendence of getting a yellow card in every game, one more often two of them than zero.

4. Develop the youth section.  Örebro's youths had a terrible year, and will now probably close down their operations.  Fair enough, better to have a top notch under 21 team than a team struggling in the 5th tier or whatever it would be next season.  Players like Kalle Holmberg (who should get a decent amount of A team minutes next season) form a basis for a top team.  Add local talents to that group, make this team the go to team for all football talents within a range of 150 kilmetres and we can have something here.

5. Find a central defender that combines with Wikström. Someone with speed, ok feet, a high lowest level and a winning mentality.  Think Mellberg (Örebro is not far away from his hometown but of course I'm dreaming here).

6. A purely defensive midfielder.  I want Berger, Gerzic and the box-to-box player that is number 3 on this list to be the starting line up.  But we should not underestimate the value of having a purely defensive midfielder, with experience, that we can through in when we want to defend a lead.  Berger is a great talent but still needs to win more balls.  That is why we need to find a box-to-box player that have defensive skills as well, but we need one more because let's face it - we don't have many midfielders left after selling Bedoya, retiring Nordback and Kihlberg and in other ways disposing of Nilsson and I guess also Skoglund.

7. Replace the "ball-striking coach" we have with a talent developer.  The dream choice here is Benny Lennartsson.  Give him freedom to work with a few players: Berger's defensive and man-to-man game, Gerzic leadership role, Rama's positional play and cooperation with Bedoya.  Details that could mean so much.  Lennartsson is also a great motivational coach.

What else do we need? A central attacker? I don't know, if we can find alternative ways of playing I think Holmberg could step in as a complement to the so often injured Haddad and Atashkadeh.

A full back? I will not join the group that says Wowoah is finished.  He had an off season, but part of that was bad cooperation with the egocentric Valdet Rama.  Hopefully ÖSK can work on this over the next few months.  And Per Johansson is an alternative here.  To the right, we have Antonnen hopefully coming back, if we get another central defender both Haginge and Eidur could be complements both centrally and on the right.

Who do we say goodbye to? We know that Alvbåge, Kihlberg, Nordback, Rosendahl, Leonidsson and Lumbana will leave the squad (as did earlier Almebäck, Bedoya and Nilsson), and it seems pretty sure that ÖSK will not proceed with the loans/short term contracts of Riski and Brunet.

On top of that, I would be surprised to see Skoglund come back, Staaf looks certain to go, and I'm not sure which roles Wirtanen should play either.

Assuming all these go, we have a squad right now consisting of:

• One keeper (plus 2 on my wish list)
• Six defenders, three primarily central, three fullbacks, with one more central defender on the wish list)
• Three midfielders (with two more on the wish list. Per Johansson can also fill in if necessary, and Paulinho can cover for Gerzic)
• Nine strikers, pretty much three for each position.  No need to add to that list, I say.

With me wish list completed, that would leave us with a squad of 24 men, but still a pretty thin midfield (also given the Abdulahi has not shown much). Should we get Nilsson back? Or sign another youngster?

Suggestions welcome