It's hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky

We had joy, we had fun, we had one season in the Champions League.  Spurs are four points below City with five games to play.  This is what we need to do to keep on playing with the big boys next season:

City's schedule is as follows:

1 May: West Ham (home. West Ham has all to play for, not easy to win against teams fighting for survival. But still, anything but 3 points would be a surprise)
7 May: Everton (away against a team chasing rival Liverpool and a possible Europa League spot. This could be tough.  0-1 point)
10 May: Spurs (home)
17 May: Stoke (home, three days after Stoke's first ever FA Cup final (against City!). Stoke will likely have secured their contract by then. 3 points)
22 May: Bolton (away, Bolton most likely with nothing to play for. 3 points)

Discounting the Spurs game, we thus end up with City on 68-69 points.  With a poorer goal difference, it means Spurs will need to win all five remaining games - including of course City away - in order to reach fourth spot (70 points).  These are the five games we need to win.

30 April: Chelsea (away against the most on-form team in the League, Bale's future employer?)
7 May: Blackpool (home, Blackpool in free-fall but need everything they can get to avoid relegation)
10 May: City (away.  Nice memories from last year, but once more?)
15 May: Liverpool (away against another on-form team)
22 May: Birmingham (home, ok that looks doable, but if Birmingham is still fighting relegation at this point we could well lose)

Percentage chance on that? I'd say just under 1.  About the same as Örebro playing Spurs in the Europa League play offs this summer.

Chances of making top 4 over the coming years.  Again, about the same.  The future does not look Lillywhite right now.