Title games 2012

Although Barclay's Premier League will squeeze in another round of football before the end of the year, it is fair to say we have a very clear trend in the four biggest football leagues: the top is tighter than usual, but in the end it seems as if we will end up with four two-horse races between old rivals.  Could be worse.  So note down the following dates in your calendars, it is not a wild guess that whoever wins these games will win the league titles:

26 Feb: Milan-Juventus

Current standing:
1. Milan 34 points
2. Juve 34 points
3. Udinese 32 points

Autumn result: Juve-Milan 2-0.

Other title challengers: Hardly. Udinese and Lazio do not possess the squads to last a whole season, Inter and Roma are too far back and with tough schedules. Napoli have put focus on Champions League.

Comment: Juve under Conte are still unbeaten, they can spend the spring concentrating on the league and the game against Milan is the only away game against a top team: Juve plays at home against Udinese, Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Roma in the spring.  On the other hand, Milan like an old train have finally starting to roll fast, score a lot of goals and have the Championship guarantee player Ibrahimovic.  Although many game days will remain after this tie, the winner will be the big title favourite.

11 April: Dortmund-Bayern
Current standing:
1. Bayern 37 points
2. Dortmund 34 points
3. Schalke 34 points

Autumn result: Bayern-Dortmund 0-1

Other title challengers: Schalke cannot be ruled out.  They are in it, and they play Dortmund at home just three days after this clash.  But still - I am pretty sure Bayern and Dortmund will have ran away from Schalke before that.

Comment: Bayern had a match point in the November clash, but blew it.  They may well have another one in April.

22 April: Barcelona-Real Madrid
Current standing:
1. Real Madrid 40 points
2. Barcelona 37 points
3. Sevilla 33 points

Autumn result: Real-Madrid-Barcelona 1-3

Other title challengers: yeah, right.

Comment: Always the decider? The big two have perhaps been a little little less dominant so far (Manchester City, Manchester United and Real have the exact same average points per game). Barcelona look like the team that will not get away with a draw this time, but they have a big big clasico upper hand.

28 April: Manchester City-Manchester United
Current standing:
1. Manchester City 45
2. Manchester United 45
3. Spurs 38 (with a game in hand)

Autumn result: United-City 1-6

Other title challengers: Spurs are closest. Spurs will not win.

Comment: After this game, only two league games remain.  This has the potential to be the biggest Manchester derby of all times, and the 1-6 shocker from October, or Rooney over-head kicking away City's titles dreams 2010/2011 do not make it worse.  Despite injuries, United show the best form and will need to gain an advantage during the Christmas period - they are looking at a very tough schedule 2012 with away games against Newclaste, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (and a home game against Liverpool) between 4 January and 3 March.  But United is United.  City are looking more vulnerable now than earlier in the season, the goals do not come as easy, and are despite the strong squad very dependent on a few players (Hart, Kompany, Silva).

Esperando na janela

[Edit: Inter bought Forlan and therefore I took them out of the equation]

The transfer window is still open but time is running out.  Who will act?

Quite a few big names are not settled yet. Are we sure that Tevez is staying with City? Will Sneijder go and if so what happens to Inter? Would it not make sense for Kaka to make a move? And will Spurs finally decide to let Modric go?

That are the really big names on the supply side.  On top of that, of course Scott Parker needs to find a home in the Premiership rather than the Championship, but that is another level. Even further down, a bunch of tall strikers with dubious skills (Bentner, Crouch) are still looking for a home that will welcome them with open arms.

On the demand side, I think there is some worldwide consensus (with one possible dissident) that Arsenal need to spend.  Sneijder and Kaka have been mentioned there, but what about Tevez?

Spurs need to shop too, and in particular if they are to lose Luca. Parker would be a welcome addition, but he doesn't really compare to Modric.  A tough situation for Spurs, as even if they hold on to Modric there is a clear risk that he will have a so-so season.

Milan, yes, here Galliani will have lost quite a bit of credibility if there is no Mr. X - which seems to be the case.  But Ganso is still to sign someone, I have not given up my hopes yet.

Örebro fans are waiting by the window too.  And we wait...