Showing posts with label Spurs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spurs. Show all posts

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

April's fool

You are missing the enthusiastic stream of posts on this blog? Of course you are. Here is why they have been missing - the games of ÖSK, Milan and Spurs over the past three weeks. Not that things were great before that - Spurs have been showing bad form ever since i wrote a jinxing post on 12 January, shortly before  they drew Wolves at home and then losing against City in that gruesome 3-2 game. Örebro's 2011 season and transfer season did not give us much hope for greatness, and Milan had already experienced those defining moments that usually indicate a loser season: the referee robbery of Muntari's goal against Juve, losing to Juve on extra time in the cup, having a season of injuries crowned by Thiago Silva being ruled out, missing the opportunity to put real pressure on Barcelona, reducing the Serie A lead to 2 points.

But still. I would have hoped for something better than this: 1 win. 5 draws. 7 losses. Dismissal from Champions League and the FA cup. Most likely losing a title battle that was ours. Most likely losing a Champions League spot that was ours. And parking at the bottom of the Swedish league. Happy days.

2 April: Örebro SK-Åtvidaberg 3-4. Opening game of the season. Four goals conceded in the first half.
3 April: Barcelona-Milan 3-1. So. That was the Champions League.
7 April: Mjällby-Örebro SK 0-0
7 April: Sunderland-Tottenham 0-0
7 April: Milan-Fiorentina 1-2. Low point of the season. And suddenly Juve takes the lead by one point.
9 April: Tottenham-Norwich 1-2. Low point of the season. Great chance to take initiative in the CL battle lost. Was planning to be there with my wife. Glad I didn't go (it rained, too)
10 April: Chievo-Milan 0-1. A win! Against the run of play, they say (didn't see it)
11 April Örebro SK-Helsingborg 0-0
15 April: IFK Göteborg-Örebro SK 2-2. Late equaliser from the home team (and actually an erroneously disallowed home team winner during stoppish time).
15 April: Tottenham-Chesea 1-5. So. That was the FA cup.
21 April: QPR-Tottenham 1-0. The Champions League qualification suddenly seems very distant.
22 April: Milan-Bologna 1-1. Last minute equaliser. The scudetto suddenly seems very distant
23 April: Örebro SK-Elfsborg 0-2. Örebro is now last in the league of  16 and the only team without a win.

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Note to self

Just saying that you are not jinxing is not an automatic get-out-of-jail card.  I jinxed us.

Thursday, 12 January 2012

We coulda been a contender

I know that I might be jinxing things, but it is time to assess what Spurs are actually about to accomplish.

The five intensive rounds of Christmas Premier League football are long gone and if you make a minitable of those five rounds you will note that Spurs are top of the table with 11 points, and the only undefeated team. Manchester City managed to lose five points despite only conceding one goal and is second with 10 points, the team that defeated them, reawoken Sunderland are third also with 10 points.  ManU started the Christmas period with three wins and a goal difference of 12-0, but two straight losses push them to the fouth spot.  The four other top seven teams gained between 6 and 8 points.

Before we move the focus back to Spurs: in the 15 games before Christmas (14 for Spurs), the top 7 teams gained on average 2.08 points per game, whereas in the 5 Christmas rounds, the average was a mere 1.66. Why do the top teams with their superior width of squads suffer more than other teams from the tough Christmas schedule? If we would have muddy pitches and snow I would have bought the argument that Christmas football is haphazard and that physical football prevails, but does that apply when the weather has been mild? Are the big teams suffering from playing European games in the autumn? Not sure I buy that argument either, at least it does not apply to Liverpool and Newcastle. 

Anyway, after a comfortable win over Everton yesterday finally banking the three points from the "game in hand" we had all season we cannot ignore facts.  Spurs are level with Man U, save for goal difference.  In January.  The chasing teams are eight points or more behind.  Our form is the best in the league.  We may have a lot of tricky away games left this season (Gunners, Pool, City, Chealsea) but United are in the same position, plus we play them at home.  And City is not what they were in the early season.  Crucial players like Kompany (banned after a rediculous red) and Yaya (going to African Nations Cup) will be absent for a while and the match schedule for the next few weeks does not look easy.

I will not jinx us. I will not say that we are a title contender. But looking at facts only, it could look as if we were.

Monday, 3 October 2011

Just a Walker and a Parker

Just a very short "hat" as the French say to Walker for proving to be a really good fullback and for Parker for taking runs no one else could be bothered to take despite obvious cramps in both legs.  Two very welcome additions to the team, yesterday a whole lot more welcome than the lazy Adebayor although he provided an assist.  Four straight wins for Spurs and given the game in hand and the bizarrely difficult opening programme (six games played so far include Utd, City, Pool and the Gunners), we're in a good position.

Monday, 29 August 2011

Esperando na janela

[Edit: Inter bought Forlan and therefore I took them out of the equation]

The transfer window is still open but time is running out.  Who will act?

Quite a few big names are not settled yet. Are we sure that Tevez is staying with City? Will Sneijder go and if so what happens to Inter? Would it not make sense for Kaka to make a move? And will Spurs finally decide to let Modric go?

That are the really big names on the supply side.  On top of that, of course Scott Parker needs to find a home in the Premiership rather than the Championship, but that is another level. Even further down, a bunch of tall strikers with dubious skills (Bentner, Crouch) are still looking for a home that will welcome them with open arms.

On the demand side, I think there is some worldwide consensus (with one possible dissident) that Arsenal need to spend.  Sneijder and Kaka have been mentioned there, but what about Tevez?

Spurs need to shop too, and in particular if they are to lose Luca. Parker would be a welcome addition, but he doesn't really compare to Modric.  A tough situation for Spurs, as even if they hold on to Modric there is a clear risk that he will have a so-so season.

Milan, yes, here Galliani will have lost quite a bit of credibility if there is no Mr. X - which seems to be the case.  But Ganso is still to sign someone, I have not given up my hopes yet.

Örebro fans are waiting by the window too.  And we wait...

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Blame it on the bogeyman

I should have been full of confidence last night. Örebro on a winning streak at home to a team in the lower regions of the table, and Spurs building on the flying start to the season in the Europa League (5-0 away to Hearts) with a nothing to lose belated league opener on old Trafford against a team missing their so important centre backs.

If it wasn't for the fact that it was the night of horror and always destined to be. The night when the bogeyman was coming. Twice. Accompanied by a suitable thunderstorm outside, Mjällby first beat Örebro 2-0, tagged with Manchester United who 15 minutes later came out to beat Spurs 3-0.

Spurs' story with ManU is well known. Now eight consecutive losses and 25 games in a row without a win on Old Trafford. And counting. It's not only that.  This is the stadium where the curse is so obvious that the powers that be cannot make us lose in a normal manner, but rather like this this (ref thought ball did not cross the line) or like that.

Cruel, but not as cruel as Örebro SK's story with Mjällby. I started seeing some Örebro games with my dad in the 1984 season. Not many, but we always won. In an eight-year-old's mind, that creates a certain logic and a sufficient statistical foundation for an expectation that that's they way it will always be. And Örebro really won many games that season, ending up winning the northern branch of the second division and qualifying for a play-off against little Mjällby. We lost the away game 1-0 but that did not bother me much. I would be there for the return game at home, we would sort this out. We would win 2-0, I was sure, I even pictured the goal scorers in my mind (Urban Hammar and Tommy Ståhl (!) would score). I still carry with me a bit of that emptiness that was my soul on the ride back home after a humiliating 3-0 defeat. The word Mjällby still makes me shiver.

It would take 21 years before we met again, in the second division. We won all four games in 2005 and 2006, we were promoted and I thought I never had to worry about Mjällby again. But then this village team made it to the top flight again, and it was obvious that the spell is still there. We lost at home in the league, we lost at home in the cup, we lost away. And this year, we lost away, and, that's right, last night we lost at home. 5-0 to the bogeyteam in 16 months' time.

And 5-0 to the bogeyman last night.





Monday, 9 May 2011

Allegro...lento...moderato...Tempo I

Mixed emotions from this weekend.

On the one hand, Milan won their 18th scudetto, the first since 2004 and their first title since Champions League since 2007.  That is pretty big.  But we knew it would happen at some stage and watching a recording of a goalless game in the middle of the night, slightly tipsy and with my wife asleep downstairs, was not really the receipe for a scudetto party.

On the other, Örebro suddenly look like a team that will not be in the title chase this year.  When you lose games when you have 78% possession, you will not win the league.  That's pretty much all I heard from Friday night's game, the result made me so depressed I can't even read about it.  Heard Bedoya scored again - and he will probably leave the club for bigger and more important things (according to him) very soon.  Misery.

And so Spurs, another team incapable of making use of possession and dominance in general.  What a terrible spring Spurs have had.  Everton's win gave a little, little opening for chasing down City, but that little glimmer of hope lasted for just a few hours.  Then we drew Blackpool, the worst team in the league after Christmas.  At home.  With Bale injured.  Misery.

So let's focus on the Champions and what made them Champions.

Since I will go on about this for quite some time below and may lose most of you on the way (but hey, there will be hyperlinks to violent actions), here's a summary:
  • Winning the 6-point games.  12 points out of 12 against the other title challengers Inter and Napoli is really what won it
  • Allegri finding a new Milan identity
  • Zlatan showing winning mentality before Milan had found that new Milan identity
  • Clarence Seedorf (on my order!) waking up from the dead
  • van Bommel creating balance when a raft of injuries tore apart the midfield
  • Pato maintaining the goal scoring record
  • Last but not least, Thiago Silva, being the best (?) defender in the game

Before this blog existed I made yet another very bad prediction of Serie A.  I will come back to that when it's all over, but for AC Milan I predicted a fourth spot, with the motivation "No indication that anything will improve on last year, but maybe we will not have to suffer from naiive tactics with Leonardo gone".  That was on 14th August.  Then in order of chronology (and arguable in order of importance), the following happened:
  • 21 Aug: I got married.
  • 28 Aug: Zlatan signs for AC Milan on a loan+option deal
  • 31 Aug: Robinho signs for AC Milan
After Saturday's game, Zlatan summarised the season by saying it had been tough and he was glad it was all over.  He said with Inter they were always favourites.  When he came to Milan he said he was not sure he signed for the favourites, but they certainly became favourites after he signed.

A self-confident statement by a self-confident man.

But look at his record since he left Sweden in 2001 (ignoring that Juventus lost their scudetti of 2005 and 2006 after calciopoli):
  • 2001/2002, Ajax: Champion
  • 2002/2003, Ajax: runner-up
  • 2003/2004, Ajax: Champion
  • 2004/2005, Juventus: Champion
  • 2005/2006, Juventus: Champion
  • 2006/2007, Inter: Champion
  • 2007/2008, Inter: Champion
  • 2008/2009, Inter: Champion
  • 2009/2010, Barcelona: Champion
  • 2010/2011, Milan: Champion
An incredible record.  Some self-confidence justified.  Maybe not enough to kick three team mates in one season, but what can an honourary Taekwondo black belt do?

I think there is quite a consensus as to what Zlatan brought to the pique-nique.  A winning mentality, goals created out of nothing, the feeling of a mercenary soldier that can carry a whole army on his shoulders.  Without Zlatan, Allegri could have been out of the title race, Champions League, and possibly his job, before Christmas.

But as the autumn turned into winter, Milan started to find something new.  Allegri put one of Pato and Robinho on the bench and played a midfielder in the role of the trequartista.  The one that did it best was Kevin Prince Boateng.  The tactical change (which Leonardo would not have done with a gun against his forehead) enabled Milan to gain possession quickly, to maintain possession and to attack with more depth.  Despite a season with enourmous injury problems, Allegri has developed a Stilo Milan.  It works, most pieces are there, some pieces are still missing but it is pretty easy to see what needs to be done in the transfer market to turn this into a team that is ready to compete on the European scene next year.
  • Starting from the front, Zlatan/Pato has the potential of being a very prolific couple up front.  Two problems to tackle though: Pato is not a clever footballer.  And Zlatan does not respect Pato as he is not a clever footballer.  The couple should now spend the summer finding inspiration with Helena and Barabara, and then return to pre-season camp full of ambition to shape their respective roles on the squad for next year.  Cassano and Robinho are not bad alternatives behind them.  And Pippo, if he stays alive and fit.
  • In the trequartista role, Boateng works.  He is not a fantastic footballer, but a type cast for the role.  He has found confidence, his feet look better than before, and he has the physique and the smartness to get into the box without marking over and over again.  He should polish his finishing this summer
  • On the three-man midfield, the long serving trio Pirlo, Ambrosini and Gattuso did not play much due to injuries.  OK, Gattuso played quite a bit, but constantly with new constellations and with varying result.  The two men that really made the mark were instead two old Dutchmen.  Seedorf, who sometime in February/March started to play at the level we know he has, and van Bommel, who took the responsibility of the achieving balance in the midfield.  Allegri should think a bit on what to do with the midfield next season.  The Dutchmen played so well they need to be considered for the starting line up, but who will complement them? Pirlo, who wants to be both the balance (van Bommel) and the creativity (Seedorf) of the midfield? What to do with the two loyal warriors Gattuso and Ambrosini? The overpaid Flamini? Are the youngsters Emanuelson, Strasser and Merkel what we need for the future? They have not proven it yet.  Emanuelson may be a better alternative as full back, actually
  • In the defence line, Abbiati has become a reliable goalie.  Apart from being a fascist, there's little not to like about him.  Thiago Silva and Nesta are a fantastic central defence.  Yepes has proven a good replacement, but Sokratis must.  The full backs were for long the biggest problem.  That problem looks half solved as Abate during this season has finally managed to control his feet, yet maintain his speed.  On the left side, we need a class player.  Coentrao is the top of my list, but if Bale needs to leave Spurs Milan should be his next home
OK, gotta stop it there.  I'm afraid I will return to the topic of transfers when the season goes silly in the summer

Thursday, 28 April 2011

Whining like Barca - scheming like Mou

Pretty nice football weekend coming up with Chelsea-Spurs on Saturday late afternoon and then a massive clash Milan-Bologna and Arsenal-Man Utd on Sunday afternoon. Milan is a must see if they can secure the scudetto, if not it could be one of those nervous games that are pretty painful to watch.  And then AIK-ÖSK on Monday, live in Stockholm hopefully. 

We need a good weekend after a pretty disappointing Champions League week.  Just like in the quarter finals, the second legs now feel like they belong to an old tired dog.  This year's Champions League has been pretty underwhelming for the most part.  Without any intention of being objective I rank Bale's three last halves against Inter as the top moment of the tournament.  Together with watching the inevitable draw for the last 16 from the Maldives, the runner-up is Arsenal-Barca.  Otherwise the the drama has been missing, in the group stage as well as in the knock-out phase.  And with the wrong sides winning.  A Neuer (I did not come up with Manu Knighted, so I should not use it) clean sheet and a Mourinho-20%-possession-1-0-win would have felt so much better, in particular as Barca have a team of pretending-to-be-good-boys that are really a bunch of cheaters and whiners.  Although they can pass the ball. And run with it (too lazy to insert hyperlinks, I assumed you watched and know what I'm talking about).

The coaches of my teams have interesting selection problems for this weekend.

Even if I have ruled out Spurs' chances of making it to the Champions League, we must go for a win against Chelsea.  We should therefore afford to try something new now when the uninspired Assou-Ekotto finally has picked up an injury.  So how do we fill the gap?

I would like to see Bale playing left back, but basically assigning the entire left corridor to him.  This will allow us not to be outnumbered by the Chelsea midfiled, playing Tom Huddle, Sandro (I'm still to watch him play well but they say he has been decent lately) and Modric centrally.

Lennon comes back in on the right, vdV gets a starting position to the left but with freedom to move into the box, and Crouchie dominates Terry in the air.  Little bit of a 4-2-3-1: Gomes - Corluka, Dawson, Gallas, Bale - Sandro, Huddlestone - Lennon, Modric, van der Vaart - Crouch.

In the case of Milan, they need to adjust to having Ibrahimovic back.  I would like to see him besides Cassano with Boateng behind.

Örebro needs to survive yet another game without the prolific Haddad.  I would really like to see Atashkadeh get a chance to run the crap out of the AIK defenders for as long as his fuel lasts.  Then Paulinho comes on and Rama moves in centrally.  I don't believe in Lushtaku as a centre-forward, I really don't.  Centrally, the phasing out of Kihlberg is overdue.  I would like to give Nilsson another chance from the start.

Thus Alvbåge - Haginge (lets wait one more game before we start with Anttonen), Almebäck, Wikström, Wowoah - Bedoya, Nilsson, Gerzic - Astvald, Atashkadeh, Rama.  On the bench Nurme, Anttonen, Wirtanen, Nordback, Kihlberg, Lushtaku, Paulinho.

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

It's hard to die when all the birds are singing in the sky

We had joy, we had fun, we had one season in the Champions League.  Spurs are four points below City with five games to play.  This is what we need to do to keep on playing with the big boys next season:

City's schedule is as follows:

1 May: West Ham (home. West Ham has all to play for, not easy to win against teams fighting for survival. But still, anything but 3 points would be a surprise)
7 May: Everton (away against a team chasing rival Liverpool and a possible Europa League spot. This could be tough.  0-1 point)
10 May: Spurs (home)
17 May: Stoke (home, three days after Stoke's first ever FA Cup final (against City!). Stoke will likely have secured their contract by then. 3 points)
22 May: Bolton (away, Bolton most likely with nothing to play for. 3 points)

Discounting the Spurs game, we thus end up with City on 68-69 points.  With a poorer goal difference, it means Spurs will need to win all five remaining games - including of course City away - in order to reach fourth spot (70 points).  These are the five games we need to win.

30 April: Chelsea (away against the most on-form team in the League, Bale's future employer?)
7 May: Blackpool (home, Blackpool in free-fall but need everything they can get to avoid relegation)
10 May: City (away.  Nice memories from last year, but once more?)
15 May: Liverpool (away against another on-form team)
22 May: Birmingham (home, ok that looks doable, but if Birmingham is still fighting relegation at this point we could well lose)

Percentage chance on that? I'd say just under 1.  About the same as Örebro playing Spurs in the Europa League play offs this summer.

Chances of making top 4 over the coming years.  Again, about the same.  The future does not look Lillywhite right now.

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Not-so-many-points week

Örebro, Spurs and Milan have all played at home this week and have managed to score a total tally of no less than seven goals.  So a nine-point week, you may think? Nope. 2.

It is with a surreal feeling that I am more important to this world than I sometimes think that I from time to time see some sort of link in what my three companions are doing. Right now, that higher power that is only focussed on me has imposed "sloppy defending" on my teams.  That's not so good.

Where did that all come from? OK, Milan deserved it. They played Soktratis in defense in front om the not so solid Amelia. But Spurs. Dawson, you better learn how to anticipate the runs of the Wilcots of this world, cuz they are faster than you!

And Örebro. Actually, that's where it all came from. That's how I annoyed that man in the sky.  Örebro was first out this week, playing bottom team Gefle at home.  Somewhere around the end of the first half, Gothenburg scored against Helsingborg.  My and my fellow Örebro fans were sitting there complaining over the lack of speed in attack, but I noted that we are now the only team in allsvenskan with a clean sheet.  It was a super-jinx. A super-jinx it was (that one is for you Sam).

Almebäck came out in the second half looking like he had been boozing hard at half time.  Örebro started to score, but what does that help when Gefle were handed three chances on a silver plate and converted them all?

And so, last night, Spurs are playing electric attacking football for a full game.  They scored three. They could have scored six or seven.  They conceded three.  They could have conceded 10.  Gomes is at times the best keeper there is.  But then he isn't. Cause the best keeper is he who makes no mistake.  That is not the Gomes of spring 2011.  I am afraid that is the main difference with Spurs in the spring of 2010.  The finishing from van der Vaart and Huddlestone was clinical, but what does that help when sub-par defending probably cost us a new champions league spot?

Örebro plays Häcken tonight.  Häcken in swedish means the bush (more or less, the kind that is planted in a garden) but for some reason that may be strange to non-natives it is also the nickname for one's behind.  As good a reason as any to shape up the defense.  We need three points or we are falling behind.  I doubt it, though.

Since this article was borderline blasphemous, I end this with my best wishes for a happy Easter.

Monday, 18 April 2011

Weekend wrap-up

Back in business after holidays, quite a bit of catching up to do. Let's start with AC Milan where an unlikely hero is about to hand us the first scudetto since 2004.  When Zlatan is busy collecting red cards and Pato is busy collecting valentine cards Clarence Seedorf is busy doing exactly what I asked him to do a couple of months back.  Milan are on a winning streak and the recent wins are very much thanks to fantastic appearances from good old Clarence.  Together with another former Sampa man, Cassano, Clarence bagged easy three points for us on a weekend where all results went Milan's way.  Five more games to play, two very difficult ones (Roma and Udinese away) and three absolutely doable ones remain.  Milan should be able to get 10 points out of that.  And if they do, it will not matter if Napoli win all their five (mostly difficult) games.  The scudetto is really really close now.  Injuries on Abbiati and Pato are worries, but with Clarence on fire I doubt that will change much.

The only game I watched this weekend was El Clasico act 1.  Good to see Mourinho back to coaching the football that he knows works.  I will be fun to watch the rest.  How good was Pepe? Man of the match performance, no doubt.

Spurs did not play last weekend, and given their form of late that is probably for the best.  North London derby coming up, and hopefully Arsenal will be disillusioned from losing the title battle in the 102nd minute on Sunday.  More of that later.

Then, gamla fina Örebro.  Gefle coming to town today, and anything but a continuation of the perfect record so far would be most disappointing.  We need more speed in the offense than we showed against Syrianska though.  But I would not mind seeing more of this.  Speaking of a perfect record.  Two games is not a whole lot, but Örebro is a notrious slow starter and we can actually talk of a record start already.

This is where we have been after two games over the last years:
2011: 6 points
2010: 3 points
2009: 0 points
2008: 3 points
2007: 2 points
2006: 6 points (2nd division)
2005: 3 points (2nd division)
2004: 0 points (and a 3-10 goal difference)
2003: 0 points
2002: 1 point
2001: 2 points
2000: 2 points
1999: 1 point
1998: 0 points
1997: 4 points
1996: 0 points
1995: 4 points
1994: 4 points
1993: 3 points
1992: 4 points
1991: 4 points
1990: 4 points
1989: 4 points

Not since 1968 has Örebro started a season in the top division with two wins. We opened with five straight wins that time. Just sayin'.  This could be the year for the real thing.

Monday, 11 April 2011

9 point weekends

Im not sure whether this concept is familiar to you. A 9 point weekend is the perfect weekend (since i am a married man I should specify "in football terms"). In other words, Orebro, tottenham and Milan win their weekend games. Usually there are only two or three of these in a year, but if things are to turn out the way we want them to we will need more in the next coming weeks. I am writing from an ipad so i will haeve to come back later with more details of the games. For now, lets just enjoy the first 9 point weekend of the year.

Thursday, 17 March 2011

Great balls of fire

There is a legend that may or may not be true relating to fixed draws of major football events.  The number one conspiracy theory is that of hot and cold balls in the draw bowl.

http://mikewhalley.wordpress.com/2008/03/14/was-the-champions-league-draw-rigged/

So on the basis that there is more to it than the 14.3% chance of any encounter, here is one idea of how UEFA may be thinking for the quarter and semifinal draw of the Champions League, keeping in mind that (i) homecomings are popular, and (ii) Platini is disgusted by the idea of one-country (read: england) domination of European club football.

So, the attractive draws are:
Real-Barca (will mean there will be four clasicos in one month. A once in a lifetime opportunity. And one Spanish team gone)
Real-Chelsea (Mou homecoming)
Real-Inter (Mou homecoming, to some extent also Sneijder)
Real-Schalke (Raul homecoming)
Real-United (Ronaldo homcoming)
Chelsea-Spurs (London derby, albeit no one really sees this encounter as much of a derby.  And one English team gone)
Chelsea-United (English combination, final 2008)
United-Spurs (the other English combinations)
Barcelona-Inter (revenge for last year, Eto'o homecoming)
Barcelona-United (final 2009)

On the basis of that, don't expect Real to be drawn against Spurs or Shaktar.  Not even on the same half.  I guess the draw will be (winners of game 1 and 2 will face each other in semi, as will the winners 3 and 4),

Barca-Real
United-Inter
Chelsea-Spurs
Schalke-Shaktar

Which according to a previous post would give Spurs a 22% chance of playing the final.  I'd settle for that.

Thursday, 10 March 2011

Zlatan damns the dammed creek of Dawson

It has always been easy to like a guy like Dawson.  A nice guy, loyal to the club, who always gives his everything.  But it is not until last season he has actually proved to be a class defender.  And last night, he took another step.  Dawson held mighty Zlatan for 90 minutes, and the way this game was played, at least in the first half, Milan would be in the quarterfinal if he hadn't.  Gallas and Sandro were great too, but it was Dawson that took Spurs to this quarterfinal.  I am happy for him and I now hope Spurs gets even further.  What are the chances of a semifinal?  In my view, 40.1%.  This is how I got there:

Assuming there are no "hot and cold balls" involved in the draw, Spurs have 1/7 chance of playing the other teams.  3 other teams are qualified already, and there is thus a 14.3% chance/risk of playing those teams. The liklihood of playing against and winning against those teams I estimate to:
Barcelona: 14.3% x 15%=2.1%
Shaktar: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%
Schalke: 14.3% x 55%=7.9%

Eight other teams may progress to the quarters.  There we have to include an estimate of the chance of that happening.  I get to the following conclusions:
Chelsea (99% chance of progressing): 14.1% x 40%=5.7%
FC Copenhagen (1% chance of progressing): 0.1% x 80%=0.1%
Man Utd (80% chance of progressing): 11.4% x 30%=3.4%
O Marseille (20% chance of progressing): 2.9% x 60%=1.7%
Real Madrid (85% chance of progressing): 12.1% x 25%=3.0%
Lyon (15% chance of progressing): 2.1% x 60%=1.3%
Bayern (90% chance of progressing): 12.9% x 50%=6.4%
Inter (10% chance of progressing): 1.4% x 45%=0.6%

In total, 40.1%.

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

And what about the game tonight then?

Maybe a word or two on my predictions for tonight.

Whereas the Barca-Arsenal 3-1 game yesterday was predictable, things can go in a few different directions tonight.  I think we will know quite well where this is going after 15 minutes of play, but before kick-off it is harder to tell.

Starting with the line-ups, I hope to see Spurs like this: Gomes - Corluka, Gallas, Dawson, Assou-Ekotto (well I will never hope to see him, but he will play so I can't hope for anything else really) - Lennon, Jenas, Modric, Bale - van der Vaart, Defoe. Very much an attacking line up with very fast players. I think Bale may be rested and Crouch may be picked over Defoe as a target, but Harry may want Defoe's speed so not sure there. Also quite likely that Hutton will play instead of Corluka.

And then Milan: Abbiati - Abate, Nesta, Tiago Silva, Jankulovski - Flamini, Boateng, Seedorf - Robinho, Pato, Ibrahimovic. If Boateng is fit, I cannot see Allegri play in any other way, Jankulovski is perhaps the only question mark.

So what will the game look like? Spurs will go about it with speed and force from the first minute, no doubt. If they score an early goal, that's probably curtains. They will use the wings and make sure Nesta is tested deep as well.  Milan will need to show that despite lacking their natural leaders in the midfield, the entire team will play with composure and with an early press. 

Are you willing to do that tonight, Clarence? After all, this is your tournament, right?

That's right. When I said it will probably not take long before we know what kind of game this will be, I am very much talking about Clarence Seedorf.  If he has an on-night, he can make the difference.  The occasions when he does are few and far between, but if there is one game where he will do a Lazarus it is tonight.  And he needs to.  If Milan's midfield (missing Pirlo, Gattuso, Ambrosini, van Bommel and Emanuelson) does not come out the may they did against Napoli, Milan will not go through.  Hoping for Ibracadabra only is futile, and Robinho and Pato are absolutely dependent on good delivery from the midfield as their game is based on gettting the ball with speed.  At 9 pm sharp we will be able to tell if they will get it.

Tuesday, 8 March 2011

Loyalties sorted

Good moment to re-engage in the blog now when Milan and Spurs are preparing for round two in the worst clash of my long football watching career. A life that may have been full of suffering, disappointment and sorrow, but which was always simple: when Örebro, Milan and Spurs play, I support them.

Until that happened that I have feared would happen ever since Spurs beat City in May last year and qualified for the Champions Leauge qualifyers.  Suddenly two of my three planets were in the same orbit. A collision between two worlds seemed inevitable, and it felt more like a confirmation of what was predestined when live from a Maldivian water villa I watched them be drawn together .

I have had the question a few times since: who do you support? The answer is of course both. The harder question is who would you prefer to win? That one I could not really answer until somewhere halfway into the first half of the first leg. Before the game, this was the best reference that I could make:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ9bht5H2p4

I realise now that was borderline distasteful and I think I have found a more suitable analogy.  I will come to that soon.

When the game started I initially had a terrible headache and I for a while I think I suffered from an emotional short-circuit. When Gattuso tackled Jenas I wanted to shout "no freekick" and "freekick" at the same time.  It was weird.

But as the game progressed, my emotions started to get themselves together.  I wanted Milan to win.  The logic of it made sense in a backward way.  Milan were the favourites and played at home but they played tentatively (no press), uninspired (no creativity in the midfield) and ugly (Gattuso and Flamini had that kind of a day). Spurs were the new kid on the block, happy to be there but determined to give it a go.  If I was neutral, it would have been natural to support the Yiddos.  But it was then I realised I didn't.  And so when Zlatan made a sloppy pass, Lennon started a counterattack, avoided a crazy tackle from Yepes and served Crouch I was sure where my true loyalties were.

And there, somewhere, the right analogy appeared: I have one kid.  That's Örebro and I will always stand by my kid no matter what.  Spurs and Milan are like to nephews from two different siblings.  Spurs is the oldest one (I started supporting them before I started school, I thought they were called Tottingham and I thought it was a cool name), the one I first got in contact with but who did not grow up in my vicinity.  From time to time I even had some problems getting along with the parents (the self-righteousness of the Premier League).  Milan arrived in my life a bit later, somewhere around 1985, but grew up in much closer contact with me.  We therefore have much closer memories.  The jury is still out on whether the closeness or the success is really what decided how my symphathies swung, but swung they did so that when my two nephews faced each other I found myself wanting the for the moment less attractive one to go through a bit more.

So, loyalties sorted.  Doesn't make next Wednesday a bit less dreadful.  Just a bit less confusing.

Sunday, 14 November 2010

The madonnina is ours

So. Zlatan has scored the winner in his first derby for Milan. That pushed me over the edge.  I am now a blogger.

Who am I writing for? I guess mostly for all those people I have terrorized with football emails over the years.  And anyone else who wants to join the discussion.

What am I writing about? I guess there are no rules but judging from the functioning of my brain there will be little space for anything else but football.  And just to make things clear from the very beginning. I speak in "we" terms about three clubs and a national team. Orebro SK (I need to learn how to make umlauts on this machine very, there is one on the first O), AC Milan, Tottenham Hotspur and Sweden.  You better live with it.  Sure, I have a constant flirt with Atletico Madrid and I have had the occasional affair with teams like Celtic, Leverkusen and Feyenoord, but I am totally over them.  Orebro, Milan, Tottenham and Sweden will be the natural focal points of this blog.

And so we have just witnessed a Milan derby with the ingredients we could only have wished for.  Zlatan scored, Nesta was too cool for school, Gattuso was ready to kill and Materazzi nearly got himself killed.  Last week Bale thrashed Maicon in the Champions League.  What's next? Easy. Nordin Gerzic will sink the nerazzurri in next years Europa League.
 
That was a soft start. I hope to deal with the heavier stuff next week. That is Pippo, Astrit and Anttonen.