Although Barclay's Premier League will squeeze in another round of football before the end of the year, it is fair to say we have a very clear trend in the four biggest football leagues: the top is tighter than usual, but in the end it seems as if we will end up with four two-horse races between old rivals. Could be worse. So note down the following dates in your calendars, it is not a wild guess that whoever wins these games will win the league titles:
26 Feb: Milan-Juventus
Current standing:
1. Milan 34 points
2. Juve 34 points
3. Udinese 32 points
Autumn result: Juve-Milan 2-0.
Other title challengers: Hardly. Udinese and Lazio do not possess the squads to last a whole season, Inter and Roma are too far back and with tough schedules. Napoli have put focus on Champions League.
Comment: Juve under Conte are still unbeaten, they can spend the spring concentrating on the league and the game against Milan is the only away game against a top team: Juve plays at home against Udinese, Inter, Napoli, Lazio and Roma in the spring. On the other hand, Milan like an old train have finally starting to roll fast, score a lot of goals and have the Championship guarantee player Ibrahimovic. Although many game days will remain after this tie, the winner will be the big title favourite.
11 April: Dortmund-Bayern
Current standing:
1. Bayern 37 points
2. Dortmund 34 points
3. Schalke 34 points
Autumn result: Bayern-Dortmund 0-1
Other title challengers: Schalke cannot be ruled out. They are in it, and they play Dortmund at home just three days after this clash. But still - I am pretty sure Bayern and Dortmund will have ran away from Schalke before that.
Comment: Bayern had a match point in the November clash, but blew it. They may well have another one in April.
22 April: Barcelona-Real Madrid
Current standing:
1. Real Madrid 40 points
2. Barcelona 37 points
3. Sevilla 33 points
Autumn result: Real-Madrid-Barcelona 1-3
Other title challengers: yeah, right.
Comment: Always the decider? The big two have perhaps been a little little less dominant so far (Manchester City, Manchester United and Real have the exact same average points per game). Barcelona look like the team that will not get away with a draw this time, but they have a big big clasico upper hand.
28 April: Manchester City-Manchester United
Current standing:
1. Manchester City 45
2. Manchester United 45
3. Spurs 38 (with a game in hand)
Autumn result: United-City 1-6
Other title challengers: Spurs are closest. Spurs will not win.
Comment: After this game, only two league games remain. This has the potential to be the biggest Manchester derby of all times, and the 1-6 shocker from October, or Rooney over-head kicking away City's titles dreams 2010/2011 do not make it worse. Despite injuries, United show the best form and will need to gain an advantage during the Christmas period - they are looking at a very tough schedule 2012 with away games against Newclaste, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham (and a home game against Liverpool) between 4 January and 3 March. But United is United. City are looking more vulnerable now than earlier in the season, the goals do not come as easy, and are despite the strong squad very dependent on a few players (Hart, Kompany, Silva).
Showing posts with label Primera Division. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Primera Division. Show all posts
Wednesday, 28 December 2011
Friday, 18 November 2011
Mourinhovember 1st quarter analysis
Back to club football after the last break for international games for a while.
Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?
Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out". Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.
Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4. Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after. But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.
2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City. Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal. Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.
3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal. A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.
4. Levante. If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top. A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back. For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season. We enjoyed it while it lasted.
5. Udinese. I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year. Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.
6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United. They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2. Both those games were played at home. In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home. If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously. Chances are they won't be.
7. Lazio. I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes. So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.
8. Paris SG. After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect. You got your bigs signings in order quickly. But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.
9. Mönchengladbach. The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga. But more of a team for the future.
10. AZ Alkmaar. Dominating Eredivisie. And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.
Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)
Losers
1. Inter. Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal. And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.
2. Villareal. Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that. But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.
3. Hamburger SV. Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season. For a team of HSV's size that is no good.
4. Arsenal. Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership. But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it. If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness. He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.
5. Bourdeaux. Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.
Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.
The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:
Is the club football season mature enough to have a first stab at evaluating what has happened so far?
Let's split the big teams in three groups, winners, losers and "jury still out". Of course, one could argue that the jury is still out on every team as we are in November, but you know what I mean.
Winners
1. Real Madrid. Has to go first on the list as they have secured both a perfect record in Champions League and a healthy lead in what I still call Primera Division, 3 points ahead of the impossible Barcelona and with a winning streak of 7 games with a rediculous goal difference of 29-4. Most difficult test in the league so far is awaiting this weekend, when they go to Mestalla to face Valencia followed by the derby the weekend after. But as always their autumn will be defined in the clasico clash, this year on 10 December.
2. Bayern München. Back as the king pin of German football, and with the most impressive Champions League performance so far in the thrashing of Manchester City. Despite a bit of shaky defending against Napoli, even that part of the game seems to work with Neuer in goal. Can more or less secure the league win if they beat B. Dortmund this weekend.
3. Manchester City. 10 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. 6-1 at Old Trafford. 5-1 at White Hart Lane. If we look at league performance only, Manchester City is the team of the season so far. But far from as impressive in Champions League, they have to settle for third spot although the CL campaign was set on track with the so so important goal of Agüero in the first of the double encounters with Villareal. A splendid team indeed, but the absence of Kompany against QPR revealed that without him they are vulnerable.
4. Levante. If it comes to overachievement alone, of course at the top. A bunch of old men held the two giants for a quarter of the season, before now starting to fall back. For what it is worth (and that is certainly not a lot), I predicted them to come in 19th this season. We enjoyed it while it lasted.
5. Udinese. I mean, Udinese always go on winning streaks and maybe Christmas just came early this year. Surely Udinese will fall back but nevertheless, what Papa Natale and his young little helpers have done, again, is truly impressive.
6. Newcastle. Unbeaten in the Premiership after 11 rounds should perhaps render a higher position, but we have to wait a little bit before we pronounce the success of Newcastle United. They have only played two or the stronger teams yet, resulting in draws against a hampered Arsenal (0-0) on the opening day, and with a later equalizer also against Spurs, 2-2. Both those games were played at home. In the next three rounds NUFC will face Manchester City away, Manchester United away and Chelsea at home. If they are still in the Champions League qualification domain after those games, we have to start taking them seriously. Chances are they won't be.
7. Lazio. I actually thought they had it in them, with Cisse and Klose in front of Hernanes. So no big surprise, but an elegant chapeau nevertheless.
8. Paris SG. After all my Leonardo bashing, maybe I should send a word of respect. You got your bigs signings in order quickly. But I maintain that Leo is not the coach that will consistently win the big games. Ever.
9. Mönchengladbach. The closest you get to Levante, in the tougher and more even Bundesliga. But more of a team for the future.
10. AZ Alkmaar. Dominating Eredivisie. And as we expect Rasmus Elm to dominate the Swedish midfield in the future, supported by Wernbloom where necessary, we are extra pleased.
Others worth a little nod of recognition at least: Glasgow Rangers (already champions), Anderlecht (doing a Real Madrid but Belgium/Europa League is not quite the same as Spain/Champions League), Apoel Nicosia (fantastic Champions League spell, but too many points lost domestically to justify a top 10 spot)
Losers
1. Inter. Possibly Ranieri is in the process of putting things right, but after a nosedive induced by Benitez, reinforced by Leonardo and going absolutely vertical under Gasperini Inter has a bumpy route back to normal. And Inter should not take for granted they will get there anytime soon.
2. Villareal. Am I being unfair against the yellow submarines? They were minutes away from getting a point at Manchester City, not many teams can say that. But 0 points in the Champions League and what could be a struggle to avoid relegation in la liga is no good.
3. Hamburger SV. Have also started to recover, but any idea of qualifying for Europe was gone just a few weeks into the season. For a team of HSV's size that is no good.
4. Arsenal. Yet another team on route to recovery, and some could even say an impressive recovery after losing Nasri and Fabregas arond the starting weeks of the Premiership. But from another respective, what are Arsenal doing? If Spurs can hold on to Modric, of course Wenger could have held on to Nasri. If it was in his mind to let him go, he should have planned for it. If it was not, it is an immense sign of weakness. He has many strengths though, one has to admit, but this weakness could cost Arsenal a Champions League spot and things will be an uphill struggle from there. Arsenal cannot be the team of the future forever.
5. Bourdeaux. Biggest losers last season, but they still linger on there.
Others worth noting. Bröndby. Must hurt being a Bröndby supporter these days although FC Köpenhavn are not the same with the overrated Roland Nilsson.
The jury is still out
This could be a long list. But to mention some, in order of size and expectation, I suppose:
- Barcelona. You can't afford losing many points in la Liga, and Barcelona are now in a place where they may not afford losing to Real in December. But after Milan's hick-up in Borisov, a draw in Milan should be enough to win the Champions League group.
- Manchester United. Winning 8-2 against Arsenal, but losing 1-6 at home to City. An uninspired start to Champions League, but still doing what's required.
- Chelsea. The jury is really still out here, as Chelsea under Vilas-Boas occasionally have flexed muscles but never impressed when they really needed to use them. In the big games, they have lost to United away (3-1) at to Arsenal at home (3-5), and drawn away to Valencia (1-1). Biggest win so far is 2-0 at home to Leverkusen, who has not impressed anyone.
- Milan. A bad start in the league and without the late equalizer against Barcelona and media focus on the even more miserable starts by Inter and Roma, there would have been crisis talks in September. But now on a winning streak in the league, in range of the top and qualified for Champions League knock-out stages, Milan can look forward.
- Tottenham. A soft start including losing on penalties in the League cup, having the first league game cancelled due to riots and then losing two to Manchester United and City 8-1 on aggregate. Leaving aside the junior squad that Redknapp sends to the Europa League, Spurs have actually been fantastic since then, with 7 wins and 1 draw in the league and from time to time producing football that should take them back to the Champions League.
- Juventus. Are in a good place, performing better then expected and crowning that with prestige wins against Milan and Inter.
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Visca, I s'pouse
Not much time here si I'll be brief, also knowing that when it comes to la liga - which I still like to call Primera Division - less is more from my side.
1 Barcelona. They actually look stronger than last year. So hard to go another way.
2 Real Madrid. Which makes Real number two.
3 Sevilla. Think they can benefit from not playing in Europe, building on a strong team with a good coach.
4 Valencia. Did Mata's departure kill Valencia's prospects? Maybe not, they have lived through player departures before.
5 Bilbao. Keeps on challenging. A stable team that now needs to focus also on Europa League.
6 Malaga. Exciting transfer market. But can take sometime before Malaga is a stable top team.
7 Villareal. Not sure they can do well in both CL and the league. But I have underestimated them before.
8 Atletico. Impressed in the Europa League qualifyer but still looks that this could be quite a horrid season. I will stop there.
9 Sporting Gijon
10 Mallorca
11 Espanyol
12 Betis
13 Getafe
14 Racing Santander
15 Real Sociedad
16 Osasuna
17 Real Zaragoza
18 Grenada
19 Levante
20 Rayo Vallecano
Monday, 23 May 2011
Hate to say I didn't tell you so
You just got to trust me as this blog did not exist when I predicted the outcome of Premier League, Serie A and Primera Division (I don't like to say "la Liga", so I chose not to).
This post is not bragging (in many instances there is certainly no reason to brag). But assuming I am mainstream, the varied accuarcy of the predictions of the big three could maybe say something of the structure of the different league? Or is it just varying lack of knowledge from my side?
My way of analysing predictions are simple. I predict all positions before the leagues start, if the position is correct I get a 0, otherwise I get the number of points that differ between the predicted position and the actual position. The lower the average score per team, the better.
So let's do them one by one, the big three:
Premier League (actual position, team, predicted position = points)
1. Manchester United (1=0)
2. Chelsea (2=0)
3. Manchester City (3=0)
4. Arsenal (4=0)
5. Tottenham (5=0)
6. Liverpool (6=0)
7. Everton (8=1)
8. Fulham (11=3)
9. Aston Villa (7=2)
10. Sunderland (10=0)
11. West Bromwich (19=8)
12. Newcastle (15=3)
13. Stoke (12=1)
14. Bolton (18=4)
15. Blackburn (13=2)
16. Wigan (16=0)
17. Wolverhampton (17=0)
18. Birmingham (9=9)
19. Blackpool (20=1)
20. West Ham (14=6)
Total: 40, average per team 2.0.
Serie A
1. Milan (4=3)
2. Inter (2=0)
3. Napoli (9=6)
4. Udinese (12=8)
5. Lazio (15=10)
6. Roma (1=5)
7. Juventus (3=4)
8. Palermo (7=1)
9. Fiorentina (8=1)
10. Genoa (5=5)
11. Chievo (18=7)
12. Parma (11=1)
13. Catania (10=3)
14. Cagliari (13=1)
15. Cesena (20=5)
16. Bologna (14=2)
17. Lecce (17=0)
18. Sampdoria (6=12)
19. Brescia (19=0)
20. Bari (16=4)
Total 76, average 3.8 per team
Primera Division
1. Barcelona (2=1)
2. Real Madrid (1=1)
3. Valencia (9=6)
4. Villareal (6=2)
5. Sevilla (4=1)
6. Bilbao (5=1)
7. Atlectico (3=4)
8. Espanyol (11=3)
9. Osasuna (18=9)
10. Gijon (15=5)
11. Malaga (16=5)
12. Racing (12=0)
13. Zaragoza (13=0)
14. Levante (19=5)
15. Sociedad (17=2)
16. Getafe (7=9)
17. Mallorca (10=7)
18. La Coruna (8=10)
19. Hercules (20=1)
20. Almeria (14=6)
Total 78, average 3.9 per team
So. With the exception of a few mishaps (West Brom, Birmingham and maybe West Ham) my prediction of the Premier League was phenomenal (that's right, no bragging). I got nine teams on the exact right spot, and the top 6 in the right order. And had O'Neil resigned before my predition was handed in I would have had Everton as number 7.
In Spain I got the worst result but I claim to be no expert other than knowing a bit of the top 7 or so teams. I think no one in the world had another duo in the top 2, behind them I'm really impressed by Valencia and the rest is pretty much as it should have been, give or take.
But Serie A. I do claim to know a bit about Serie A. Maybe I should stop now. How can I so entirely miss the decline of Sampdoria, the fantastic run of Udinese, the stability of credibility of the new Lazio, the rediculous instability of Roma, and so on? Or should I really have seen that?
There is a difference. Premier League is truly segmented. 6 teams play an entirely different style of football compared to the rest, with superior resources and hence superior players. The rest are also split in layers, those who are good enough to give the big six a go (Everton, Villa and over the past couple of years Fulham), the once that are good enough to be safe from relegation (Sunderland, Stoke) and those who will struggle to stay up.
Serie A used to have all that. Remember the 7 sisters that ruled until 10 years ago. But years of instability that culminated in calciopoli have led to clubs with less financial resources and more focus on developing talents (although in the end, the players from the elephant's graveyard, Milanello, lifted the scudetto).
None of that is new. But with the ego centric view that a blog should have, the results of my predictions constitute solid scientific evidence of the difference in predictability between England and Italy.
This post is not bragging (in many instances there is certainly no reason to brag). But assuming I am mainstream, the varied accuarcy of the predictions of the big three could maybe say something of the structure of the different league? Or is it just varying lack of knowledge from my side?
My way of analysing predictions are simple. I predict all positions before the leagues start, if the position is correct I get a 0, otherwise I get the number of points that differ between the predicted position and the actual position. The lower the average score per team, the better.
So let's do them one by one, the big three:
Premier League (actual position, team, predicted position = points)
1. Manchester United (1=0)
2. Chelsea (2=0)
3. Manchester City (3=0)
4. Arsenal (4=0)
5. Tottenham (5=0)
6. Liverpool (6=0)
7. Everton (8=1)
8. Fulham (11=3)
9. Aston Villa (7=2)
10. Sunderland (10=0)
11. West Bromwich (19=8)
12. Newcastle (15=3)
13. Stoke (12=1)
14. Bolton (18=4)
15. Blackburn (13=2)
16. Wigan (16=0)
17. Wolverhampton (17=0)
18. Birmingham (9=9)
19. Blackpool (20=1)
20. West Ham (14=6)
Total: 40, average per team 2.0.
Serie A
1. Milan (4=3)
2. Inter (2=0)
3. Napoli (9=6)
4. Udinese (12=8)
5. Lazio (15=10)
6. Roma (1=5)
7. Juventus (3=4)
8. Palermo (7=1)
9. Fiorentina (8=1)
10. Genoa (5=5)
11. Chievo (18=7)
12. Parma (11=1)
13. Catania (10=3)
14. Cagliari (13=1)
15. Cesena (20=5)
16. Bologna (14=2)
17. Lecce (17=0)
18. Sampdoria (6=12)
19. Brescia (19=0)
20. Bari (16=4)
Total 76, average 3.8 per team
Primera Division
1. Barcelona (2=1)
2. Real Madrid (1=1)
3. Valencia (9=6)
4. Villareal (6=2)
5. Sevilla (4=1)
6. Bilbao (5=1)
7. Atlectico (3=4)
8. Espanyol (11=3)
9. Osasuna (18=9)
10. Gijon (15=5)
11. Malaga (16=5)
12. Racing (12=0)
13. Zaragoza (13=0)
14. Levante (19=5)
15. Sociedad (17=2)
16. Getafe (7=9)
17. Mallorca (10=7)
18. La Coruna (8=10)
19. Hercules (20=1)
20. Almeria (14=6)
Total 78, average 3.9 per team
So. With the exception of a few mishaps (West Brom, Birmingham and maybe West Ham) my prediction of the Premier League was phenomenal (that's right, no bragging). I got nine teams on the exact right spot, and the top 6 in the right order. And had O'Neil resigned before my predition was handed in I would have had Everton as number 7.
In Spain I got the worst result but I claim to be no expert other than knowing a bit of the top 7 or so teams. I think no one in the world had another duo in the top 2, behind them I'm really impressed by Valencia and the rest is pretty much as it should have been, give or take.
But Serie A. I do claim to know a bit about Serie A. Maybe I should stop now. How can I so entirely miss the decline of Sampdoria, the fantastic run of Udinese, the stability of credibility of the new Lazio, the rediculous instability of Roma, and so on? Or should I really have seen that?
There is a difference. Premier League is truly segmented. 6 teams play an entirely different style of football compared to the rest, with superior resources and hence superior players. The rest are also split in layers, those who are good enough to give the big six a go (Everton, Villa and over the past couple of years Fulham), the once that are good enough to be safe from relegation (Sunderland, Stoke) and those who will struggle to stay up.
Serie A used to have all that. Remember the 7 sisters that ruled until 10 years ago. But years of instability that culminated in calciopoli have led to clubs with less financial resources and more focus on developing talents (although in the end, the players from the elephant's graveyard, Milanello, lifted the scudetto).
None of that is new. But with the ego centric view that a blog should have, the results of my predictions constitute solid scientific evidence of the difference in predictability between England and Italy.
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