il Metron'oumo

I'm not really ready to fully comment on the Milan transfer season just despite a flurry of activity which in particular includes the contract extensions of Super-Pippo Inzaghi (!), Nesta, van Bommel and Thiago Silva.  Very good.

But.  As per an OT comment to a previous post, we now also need to say farewell to Andra Pirlo, 32 years of age this very day.  I can see why both parties see mutual benefit in a separation.  Andrea has played very little this season.  Mostly due to injury but he clearly does not fit Allegri's style of playing.  And he is quite an expense with a salary around Euro 6 million a year.  Nevertheless. It feels sad. 

The story of Pirlo in Milan is a beautiful one.  Pirlo actually came to Milan from archrivals Inter back in 2001. According to Wikipedia he made 22 performances in black and blue but I can only remeber one, for a static Inter that lost the Champions League qualifyer in 2000 to Helsingborg (by the way the last time a Swedish club qualified for the group stage, pretty unimpressive). Then he went on loan back to his youth club Brescia and when he joined Milan as a 22-year old it was a bit unclear what we had purchased: the biggest promise in the game or a pretty could-have-been boy? He had not scored for a long time when he joined Milan (in fact he never scored a goal for Inter) and despite playing regularly for Inter as a teen starlet, the career hadn't really taken off.

The first season at Milan was also tough on the young lad.  Milan in 2001 was a club that - apart from the magnificant spring in 1999 that surprisingly won us the scudetto and two unbelieveble derbies in 2000 - really had not shown much since 1994.  OK, there was another scudetto in 1996 but Milan had not been shining like they used to.  Strange players had been signed (of course with exceptions like Sheva) and although expectations were always high - the fans' confidence in the club's transfer policy was low.

In 2001, things were supposed to be different.  Terim was brought on as coach and he brought with him Rui Costa, the regista of registas, a players who is cut for one role and one role only - the number 10 behind 2 strikers.

The problem for Pirlo was - this is where he was playing too.  Pirlo was brought on as a Rui Costa understudy and if there was any doubt about that Ancelotti (who soon replaced the Terim) could not be any cleared when he said he would only play Rui Costa and Pirlo together when he was allowed to field 12 players.  Must have been a huge confidence boost for young Andrea who had actually shone when given the odd chance.

But then Ancelotti made what must be up there on the list of "most brilliant football manager moves of all time" (any contributions, anyone?).  When the season 2002-2003 started, there they were together: Rui Costa in his regular number 10 role and Andrea Pirlo as a deep miedfielder or a high libero if you will. 

Football coaches since then have been talking about the "Pirlo role".  With Pirlo as the conductor of the Milan game we were admitteldly at times a tad slow but still Pirlo was the pace-setter that eventually set Milan back on track with a Champions League and cup title 2003, Scudetto 2004, Champions League final in 2005 and another Champions League title in 2007.  In between, he played the exact same role for the Italy that won the 2006 world cup and it was his brilliant passing game and touch in that tournament that made his a household name world wide.

He is not expected to sign for Juventus.  It will be strange seeing him in the Juve colours but nevertheless I wish him all the best.  And I thank you Andrea, for this.

And of course Andrea should thank his Sancho Panza during all these years.  But we are not saying goodbye to him just yet.  I hope.

Premature predictions II

This is a slightly modified version of a post from last week that Blogger was unable to keep in its cloud.  Big fat boo to you for that, blogger.  But I found some old draft that I tweaked a bit.  But it does not deal with this weekend,  big win for Spurs, actually, big loss for Örebro SK yet again.  And a Swedish hockey collapse that is actually embarrassing.  Anyway, here it goes (I deleted the beginning since it's outdated, hence the very succint intro).

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Let's look forward to the Europa League.

First.   Let's face it.  Even passing through the second round (where we start) will not be easy for Örebro.  But. The games are played when most teams are in pre-season training.  That gives us a better chance.

Örebro will play a seeded team (or if the seeded team is eliminated in the first round, the team that beat it (which means we cannot exclude the chance of playing for example Fuglafjordir from the Faroe Islands or Fola Esch from Luxembourg, but let's not count on it).  It is all very much up in the air as few leagues and cups are finally decided.  But with good Wikipediaing you get a good feel for where things are going.

Having a look at the likely opponents for Örebro in the 2nd round, we can list them in some groups.  After the draw, we can say that the opposition falls into one of seven categories:

• 50/50 game with a not so scary away game: 23.1%.  Second best option.  Good solid opposition but we are at least just as good
• Difficult away game but it feels like we have a good chance: 20.5%.  A bit less appealing, one of these away games where you feel you will lose on a late penalty and then play 0-0 at home.
• Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective: 15.4%.  From a very egoistic perspective, this would be good.  And the opposition is not by any means impossible.
• Dream draw: 15.4%.  Of course what one hopes for, we don't want the adventure to end here.
• Nightmare draw but not for sporting reasons: 12.8%.  I have a feeling we will play Aktobe.  I just feel it.
• Just a nightmare (hard opponent and difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me): 10.3%.  Worst case scenarios.
• Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one: 2.5% risk/chance

Attractive from an audience perspective but a nightmare from a sporting one
Fulham look likely to qualify on a fair play ticket.  We can confuse Fulham with very similar jerseys.  Otherwise we're pretty screwed here.  But they will be in between holiday and pre-season.  Maybe there is a chance after all.

Attractive from my perspective but probably pretty hard from a sporting perspective
The Belgian qualifyer from their internal Euro League play-off, which could well be a strong team like Club Brugge (would the easier option which is Westerlo)

The winner from the Dutch play-off between Groningen, Roda, den Haag and Heracles.  None impossible, all hard but within driving distance so I would be kinna happy

Red Bull Salzburg.  My mates in Salzburg would host me and support Örebro (as good fans of the real Salzburg, they support any team playing against them

Austria Wien. For similar reasons, but in Vienna my friends support Rapid

Anorthosis.  Hey, Cyprus

Nacional.  Hey, Madeira

Just a nightmare (hard opponent, but not very known to the crowds, difficult, expensive trips for the team and likely not trip for me)
Steua or Dinamo Bukarest.  A fallen super power but still capable
Zilina.  Failed in Champions League but gained useful experience
Red Star.  See Steua.
Sherif. A Moldovan team that has impressed before but failed to win its 11th straight Moldovan title

Nightmare trip for obvious reasons
Quarabag.  Azerbaijan, anyone?
Aktobe.  Glorious nation of Kazakstan, anyone?
Dynamo Tbilsi.  A bit of Georgian civil unrest, anyone?
Maccabi Tel Aviv.  A missile in the head, anyone?
Maccabi Netanya. And another one?

Difficult away game but it feel like we have a good chance
CSKA or Lokomotiv Sofia.  Teams that are not what they used to be.
Vorskla Poltava (the revenge we have waited for for 300 years)
Gaziantespor. The Turkish Süperliga used to predictable. Not no more it isn't. Anyone with info on these guys?
Atromitos. 12th in the Greek Super League. That is close to a dream draw.  We need AEK Athens to win the Champions League for Atromitos to qualify.  And it is looking good so far.  Go, AEK.
RNK. I will never under estimate Croatian teams.
Sarajevo.  Will the Bosnian teams be allowed to play, is it only the national team that is banned?
Rabotnicki. Would like to go to Skopje one day.
Varazdin. See RNK, although this team looks weaker on paper.  Oops, almost did it.

50/50 game with a not so scary away game
Dundee Utd.  I reported from a friendly against them and Örebro in the mid-90s. Lars Zetterlund was one of their best players.
Midtjylland or Silkeborg (against Silkeborg we should win - if they win the cup we move this to dream draw)
Thun or Luzern.  1n 2005 Thun knocked out Malmö, embarressed themselves in Champions League and all players slept with a 15-year old.  Have not heard from them since
Jablonec.  Actually the only team we ever knocked out in the UEFA-cup.  I don't count Avenir Beggen as we used too many foreigners and were disqualified
Vålerenga. The Norwegian Hammarby. Very easy to feel repulsiveness.
Jangiellonia.  The Polish league has not impressed much lately.
Tromsö.  At least there will be no need to use floodlights.
Ålesund.  No floodlights here either I suppose. Another team qualifying on a fair play ticket.
Spartak Trnava.  Lacks a couple of consonants.

A dream draw from a sporting perspective - although it by no means mean we go through
Ventspils.  Always a top team in Latvia and with loads of European experience - but not a very impressive record.  Not sure I can convince my wife to celebrate her birthday in Ventspils, though
Bohemians.  An Irish equivalent of Ventspils.  And it's about time I go to Dublin
AEK Larnaca. Not at all as good a team from Cyprus.
Levadia.  The Estonian equivalent of Ventspils.  But Tallin sounds more attractive than Ventspils
St. Patric's. Pretty much the same as Bohemians
Honka.  The club we once signed Roni Porokara from.  We played 1-1 in a friendly against them in 2008, but we have moved up since then.

If we then proceed to the third round, the opposition is guaranteed to be tough.

Some of the teams mentioned above from the second round would be seeded also in a third round (Fulham/Tottenham for sure, and a bunch of ten or so others).

Possible new teams include, in some order of anticipated difficulty:

• Atlectico de Madrid: They can always screw up, but we are talking of a different level than Örebro here
• Lazio or Roma
• Mainz
• Celtic (although they are likely to be moved up to the play-off round depending on what Braga does in the Portuguese league - it's complicated)
• Stoke - the English cup surprises make the draw a tad more humane
• Sochaux
• Panathinaikos.  Not as good as in the Saravakos days but still a consistent top team in Greece, although slacking behind Olympiakos.  Could also be for example Paok Saloniki, which would be much much better
• Bursaspor
• Lokomotiv Moscow
• Guimares
• Sparta Prag
• AZ Alkmaar.  Rasmus Elm and Pontus Wernbloom in a team in the decline.  Would be a good draw, a stadium sell-out but still not impossible.  And within driving distance for me
• Hapoel Tel Aviv
• Young Boys
• Rapid Bukaresti
• Levski Sofia
• CSKA or Slavia Sofia
• Karpaty Lviv
• Anderlecht. Yes, please! Hopefully without Lukaku, and nearly within walking distance for me
• Brondby
• Mlada

Could be worse actually.

Should we say a 50% chance of qualifying for the third round, and if so a 25% chance of winning in the third? That means 12.5% of playing in the play-off.  And there, it will be real tough.  We're talking teams that missed Champions League and the likes of Liverpool or Tottenham, Lazio and Palermo, PSV, Sporting Lisbon, Braga, Schalke, PSG, Spartak, Bilbao, Sevilla.  Europa League is far far away.  But I'm dreaming.

Magnificent steel (another stolen headline)

The teams that have already qualified for the Champions League group stage next season are: Manchester United, Barcelona, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Inter, Porto, Milan, Shaktar, Valencia, CSKA Moskow, Zenit, Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiakos, Ajax, Lille, Dortmund, Napoli and ... Otelul Galati.

Since the Romanian league is pretty entertaining in general and since we need to know a bit more of Otelul, let me simply refer to the excellent competing blog In bed with Maradona. It's so good I may never see you again.  I enjoyed it while it lasted.

Prince of Pop

The title is not mine but I thought I had to share Kevin Prince's imitation of Michael Jackson with you.

Allegro...lento...moderato...Tempo I

Mixed emotions from this weekend.

On the one hand, Milan won their 18th scudetto, the first since 2004 and their first title since Champions League since 2007.  That is pretty big.  But we knew it would happen at some stage and watching a recording of a goalless game in the middle of the night, slightly tipsy and with my wife asleep downstairs, was not really the receipe for a scudetto party.

On the other, Örebro suddenly look like a team that will not be in the title chase this year.  When you lose games when you have 78% possession, you will not win the league.  That's pretty much all I heard from Friday night's game, the result made me so depressed I can't even read about it.  Heard Bedoya scored again - and he will probably leave the club for bigger and more important things (according to him) very soon.  Misery.

And so Spurs, another team incapable of making use of possession and dominance in general.  What a terrible spring Spurs have had.  Everton's win gave a little, little opening for chasing down City, but that little glimmer of hope lasted for just a few hours.  Then we drew Blackpool, the worst team in the league after Christmas.  At home.  With Bale injured.  Misery.

So let's focus on the Champions and what made them Champions.

Since I will go on about this for quite some time below and may lose most of you on the way (but hey, there will be hyperlinks to violent actions), here's a summary:

• Winning the 6-point games.  12 points out of 12 against the other title challengers Inter and Napoli is really what won it
• Allegri finding a new Milan identity
• Zlatan showing winning mentality before Milan had found that new Milan identity
• Clarence Seedorf (on my order!) waking up from the dead
• van Bommel creating balance when a raft of injuries tore apart the midfield
• Pato maintaining the goal scoring record
• Last but not least, Thiago Silva, being the best (?) defender in the game

Before this blog existed I made yet another very bad prediction of Serie A.  I will come back to that when it's all over, but for AC Milan I predicted a fourth spot, with the motivation "No indication that anything will improve on last year, but maybe we will not have to suffer from naiive tactics with Leonardo gone".  That was on 14th August.  Then in order of chronology (and arguable in order of importance), the following happened:

• 21 Aug: I got married.
• 28 Aug: Zlatan signs for AC Milan on a loan+option deal
• 31 Aug: Robinho signs for AC Milan

After Saturday's game, Zlatan summarised the season by saying it had been tough and he was glad it was all over.  He said with Inter they were always favourites.  When he came to Milan he said he was not sure he signed for the favourites, but they certainly became favourites after he signed.

A self-confident statement by a self-confident man.

But look at his record since he left Sweden in 2001 (ignoring that Juventus lost their scudetti of 2005 and 2006 after calciopoli):

• 2001/2002, Ajax: Champion
• 2002/2003, Ajax: runner-up
• 2003/2004, Ajax: Champion
• 2004/2005, Juventus: Champion
• 2005/2006, Juventus: Champion
• 2006/2007, Inter: Champion
• 2007/2008, Inter: Champion
• 2008/2009, Inter: Champion
• 2009/2010, Barcelona: Champion
• 2010/2011, Milan: Champion

An incredible record.  Some self-confidence justified.  Maybe not enough to kick three team mates in one season, but what can an honourary Taekwondo black belt do?

I think there is quite a consensus as to what Zlatan brought to the pique-nique.  A winning mentality, goals created out of nothing, the feeling of a mercenary soldier that can carry a whole army on his shoulders.  Without Zlatan, Allegri could have been out of the title race, Champions League, and possibly his job, before Christmas.

But as the autumn turned into winter, Milan started to find something new.  Allegri put one of Pato and Robinho on the bench and played a midfielder in the role of the trequartista.  The one that did it best was Kevin Prince Boateng.  The tactical change (which Leonardo would not have done with a gun against his forehead) enabled Milan to gain possession quickly, to maintain possession and to attack with more depth.  Despite a season with enourmous injury problems, Allegri has developed a Stilo Milan.  It works, most pieces are there, some pieces are still missing but it is pretty easy to see what needs to be done in the transfer market to turn this into a team that is ready to compete on the European scene next year.

• Starting from the front, Zlatan/Pato has the potential of being a very prolific couple up front.  Two problems to tackle though: Pato is not a clever footballer.  And Zlatan does not respect Pato as he is not a clever footballer.  The couple should now spend the summer finding inspiration with Helena and Barabara, and then return to pre-season camp full of ambition to shape their respective roles on the squad for next year.  Cassano and Robinho are not bad alternatives behind them.  And Pippo, if he stays alive and fit.
• In the trequartista role, Boateng works.  He is not a fantastic footballer, but a type cast for the role.  He has found confidence, his feet look better than before, and he has the physique and the smartness to get into the box without marking over and over again.  He should polish his finishing this summer
• On the three-man midfield, the long serving trio Pirlo, Ambrosini and Gattuso did not play much due to injuries.  OK, Gattuso played quite a bit, but constantly with new constellations and with varying result.  The two men that really made the mark were instead two old Dutchmen.  Seedorf, who sometime in February/March started to play at the level we know he has, and van Bommel, who took the responsibility of the achieving balance in the midfield.  Allegri should think a bit on what to do with the midfield next season.  The Dutchmen played so well they need to be considered for the starting line up, but who will complement them? Pirlo, who wants to be both the balance (van Bommel) and the creativity (Seedorf) of the midfield? What to do with the two loyal warriors Gattuso and Ambrosini? The overpaid Flamini? Are the youngsters Emanuelson, Strasser and Merkel what we need for the future? They have not proven it yet.  Emanuelson may be a better alternative as full back, actually
• In the defence line, Abbiati has become a reliable goalie.  Apart from being a fascist, there's little not to like about him.  Thiago Silva and Nesta are a fantastic central defence.  Yepes has proven a good replacement, but Sokratis must.  The full backs were for long the biggest problem.  That problem looks half solved as Abate during this season has finally managed to control his feet, yet maintain his speed.  On the left side, we need a class player.  Coentrao is the top of my list, but if Bale needs to leave Spurs Milan should be his next home

OK, gotta stop it there.  I'm afraid I will return to the topic of transfers when the season goes silly in the summer

The Hugmark family derby

Is Örebro-Kalmar.  It is about to start, but I need to rush out.  Just a quick note in rememberence of my two beloved grand fathers, both dedicated Kalmar supporters and as long as their eyes allowed it frequent visitors at Fredrikskans.  I truly miss nagging on them after an Örebro win.

On the line up, not good that Haddad and Gerzic are still out.  The fatzo Paulinho and the old Finn Norback aren't quite the same.

Go ÖSK! RIP, morfar och farfar

Port proximity

Porto against Braga in the Europa League final.  That's pretty interesting.  In an era of clasico galore, we now, for the first time in history, have a real derby in in a European final.  That does not mean we have not seen bitter rivals in finals before, but distance wise we have never really seen a derby. Milan-Inter in the semis 2003 was as close as we got.

Oporto and Braga are according to google maps 55.9 km from each other.  No one has ever been near that close before.  Here are a few finals played between clubs within close range:

• Milan-Juventus, Champions League final 2003: 141 km
• Mechelen-Ajax, Cupwinners' cup final 1988: 182 km
• Tottenham-Wolverhampton, UEFA cup final 1972: 209 km
• Parma-Juventus, UEFA cup final 1995: 243 km
• Manchester United-Chelsea, Champions League final 2008: 334 km
• Real Madrid-Valencia, Champions League final 2000: 355 km
• Juventus-Fiorentina, UEFA cup final 1990: 422 km