Seedings for Euro 2012 are now definite.
Here are the seeding pots:
Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Ukraine, Poland
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland
For Sweden, there are 4 teams to avoid: Spain and the Netherlands from pot 1, primarily Spain, Germany from pot 2 and France from pot 4. Anything avoiding all those must be considered a dream draw, without saying that a group of for example Italy, Ukraine and Denmark would be easy. What is the chance of that? If there are no hot and cold balls in the draw, it should be about 28%.
The toughest possible group on paper seems to be Spain, Germany, Portugal and France. That would be something else.
The easiest: Poland, Russia, Sweden (?) and the Czechs. Let's hope that happens.
In my dream world, I would like to see:
Group A
Poland
Russia
Sweden
Czech Republic
Angry rivals steal points from each other and Sweden thus has a good chance of evening winning the group with, say, 5 points. If we do, I have a ticket to that quarterfinal and that matters.
Group B
Holland
England
Greece
Ireland
OK possible quarterfinal opposition for Sweden. And of course we want an England-Ireland clash.
Group C
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France
Too tempting. Every game with a chance of becoming a classic.
Group D
Ukraine
Italy
Croatia
Denmark
Showing posts with label Euro 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro 2012. Show all posts
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
Monday, 10 October 2011
Elm and... er...? II
Tomorrow. Holland. Not a must-win this time. But a very much wanna-win as a win means a ticket to Euro 2012 as best runner-up and with a draw we have a chance although my bet goes to Denmarl (kick-off changed, someone read my "No academic quarter" post).
How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan. But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors. Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea. And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander
Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.
But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now. Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):
Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)
Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)
So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).
An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.
How do we beat Holland? My previous line-up is obsolete given the suspension of Zlatan. But I stick to my guns even if we will not have a strong but static target forward to aim for but rather a scared moose (hunting season, Zlatan knows): we should really play three central midfielders, with one of them operating higher up on the pitch, which in my world should be Källström as he is more prone to making passing errors. Although we need speed, starting with two strikers (Elmander and Hysen) as many propose is not a good idea. And Toivonen, nope,we cannot afford the luxury of a pure number 10 against Holland. So my line-up is:
Isaksson
Lustig, Mellberg, Majstorovic, M.Olsson
Svensson, Elm
Larsson, Källström, Wilhelmsson (or Bajrami, whoever is in best shape)
Elmander
Bench: Wilandh, J.Olsson, Bengtsson, Wernblom, Toivonen, Wilhemsson/Bajrami, Hysen.
But still, my feeling is we will need to start preparing for a play-off on Wednesday so I start already now. Likely pairings as runners up right now are as follows (assuming that Denmark or Portugal claim the best runner-up spot; If not, it will be Sweden or Croatia, all of which as it seems would be seeded if they have to go into play-off):
Seeded (Ranking coefficient - not yet final):
Croatia (6) (the alternative, Greece, would also be seeded)
Sweden (10)
Serbia (13) (the alternative, Estonia, would be most unseeded)
Czech Republic (14) (the alternative, Scotland, would most likely be unseeded)
Unseeded:
Turkey (17) (the alternative, Belgium, is further down and not close to seeding)
Ireland (19) (could still be Russia who would be seeded, or Armenia who would not be)
Bosnia (20) (or France, that would be seeded)
Montenegro (30)
So from a purely Swedish perspective I should route for Estonia (38), the Scots (27), Belgium (33) and Armenia (37).
An unseeded bunch consisting of Scotland, Estonia, Mopntenegro and Armenia may not be easy but a whole lot easier than for example if Sweden drops in the rankings and face Russia, Croatia, France and Serbia on the other side.
Friday, 7 October 2011
Elm and... er...?
Tonight: Finland-Sweden. Must win game. Nervous.
Coach Hamrén continues to play 4-4-2 against Finland (although of course it is called 4-2-3-1). I'm ok with that, I am in agreement to play Rasmus Elm although I am not sure at all that it was a good decision not to play Anders Svensson. Elm called Svensson a fossile, or actually the fossile, earlier this week. Jokingly, but still. Anders and I are the same age, ready for a life on the bench.
But against Holland on Tuesday I would like to see a real 4-2-3-1. I would like Svensson to come back on the starting XI, at the expense of Elmander. I want us to play with three central midfielders, and I want to keep Elmander on the bench to come on if we need speed in the second half.
Coach Hamrén continues to play 4-4-2 against Finland (although of course it is called 4-2-3-1). I'm ok with that, I am in agreement to play Rasmus Elm although I am not sure at all that it was a good decision not to play Anders Svensson. Elm called Svensson a fossile, or actually the fossile, earlier this week. Jokingly, but still. Anders and I are the same age, ready for a life on the bench.
But against Holland on Tuesday I would like to see a real 4-2-3-1. I would like Svensson to come back on the starting XI, at the expense of Elmander. I want us to play with three central midfielders, and I want to keep Elmander on the bench to come on if we need speed in the second half.
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
No academic quarter
Could be a thrilling ending to the Euro qualifyer. As I posted already in March, Denmark are in the best position to qualify as best runner up.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
If Denmark lives through a tough away game on Cyprus, they will go into the last game, at home to Portugal, with only 5 points lost. Portugal will have the same amount of points, but the advantage of winning the first game against Denmark. Thus, the winner qualifies as group winner, if there is a draw Portugal qualifies.
And that draw may be a likely result. Denmark's game kicks of at 8.15.
15 minutes earlier, Sweden kicks off against Holland. If Sweden before that has beaten Finland and Montenegro has failed to beat England, Sweden will be the only threat against Denmark's position as best runner up if they draw Portugal. But to snatch that position, Sweden will need to beat Holland. With 15 minutes to go at Parken in Copenhagen, Denmark and Portugal will know whether a draw is sufficient to take them both to Euro 2012.
The Swedish FA should consider delaying the kick-off of the Holland game.
Otherwise, my predictions in March seemed to be pretty accurate.
Here's what I said then:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already. CHECK, ALL 4 QUALIFIED AS OF YESTERDAY
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight. CHECK, STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia. CHECK EXCEPT THE SWISS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SURPASSING MONTENEGRO, THE BELGIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SCREWED IT UP AGAIN AND IN GROUP C SERBIA LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER TO WITH ESTONIA (!) AS THE DARK HORSE.
Tuesday, 7 June 2011
The road to Donetsk, Poznan and other places
Zlatan on the bench against Finland tonight. How do we interpret that? Just that he is out of match form and hence not ready for 90 minutes. And don't expect him to play unless we have to. Disappointing for the ticket holders but they get summer weather and should not complain.
We should beat Finland and the 11 that started the second half against Moldova should be able to do it.
So not many comments to make.
But I can give you the predictions for the qualification campaign this autumn if you would like.
Such as the 16 teams that will participate in Euro 2012, in alphabetical order:
Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine.
How do I get there? Afraid that's a longer story but sure, here we go:
Two teams are qualified as hosts, Poland and Ukraine.
Four teams are cruising through their groups and can already book their tickets; Spain, Germany, Holland and Italy.
The other five prospective group winners need to fight for their place, but I think the following teams will make it:
Looking at all groups, and the games played and the games to be played, the teams that can get the best results are:
The other number twos will enter a play-off against each other, with the four best teams according to the FIFA ranking seeded. That means, today:
Seeded
Denmark (or Portugal or Norway)
Greece (or Croatia)
Switzerland (or Montenegro or England)
Serbia (or Slovenia)
Unseeded
Ireland
Czech Republic (or Scotland)
Turkey (or Belgium, or Austria)
Romania (or Bosnia, Belarus or Romania)
The draws will decide but the seeded teams are more likely to qualify, it seems. Serbia-Bosnia and Greece-Turkey sound like interesting draws.
If Sweden ends up being number 2 but not the best number 2, we are likely to be seeded (as last team) but a lot could change that:
So, a lot of differet scenarios but if you support Sweden here are some other games where you clearly should route for one team over the other:
We should beat Finland and the 11 that started the second half against Moldova should be able to do it.
So not many comments to make.
But I can give you the predictions for the qualification campaign this autumn if you would like.
Such as the 16 teams that will participate in Euro 2012, in alphabetical order:
Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Holland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine.
How do I get there? Afraid that's a longer story but sure, here we go:
Two teams are qualified as hosts, Poland and Ukraine.
Four teams are cruising through their groups and can already book their tickets; Spain, Germany, Holland and Italy.
The other five prospective group winners need to fight for their place, but I think the following teams will make it:
- England have screwed up a few times already and could screw up a few times more, but if they get their act together away against Montenegro that's pretty much all they need to do. And currently Enlgand appear to be stronger away from home
- France managed to get one point out of two encounters with Belarus. A super power still on the decline, but with a helpful draw. They really should qualify
- Portugal initially struggled in their Nordic group but seem to have found the necessary momentum and probably a draw against Denmark is all they need on the last day. An interesting group where three games between three teams on equal points will be decisive. Denmark-Norway and Denmark-Portugal.
- Croatia are not in the driving seat in their group and were minutes away from losing important points to Georgia this weekend. But I think they will draw Greece away, and I believe Greece will draw at least once more (away to Israel or away to Georgia). But this is a tough group.
- Russia, finally, are favourites in their three-horse battle with Slovakia and Ireland. Again, all three teams are even but if Russia can manage a draw away to Slovakia and a win at home to Ireland that should suffice.
Looking at all groups, and the games played and the games to be played, the teams that can get the best results are:
- Sweden, could be second with only 3 points lost
- Turkey, 5 points (if Azerbijan finishes last and thus Turkey's loss against them is discounted, otherwise 8 points)
- Norway or Portugal, 5 points (but I think Portugal will win the group and Norway finish third). I predict Denmark to finnish second, and to do that they need to drop at least 7 points
- England/Montenegro, 6 points
- Czech Republic, 6 points
- Slovakia/Russia/Ireland, 7 points
- Greece/Croatia, 7 points
- France/Bosnia, 8 points
- Northern Ireland, 9 points
- Sweden, losing 7 points by drawing at home to Holland and away to Turkey, but winning two games against Finland and (discounting the San Marino games) with a goal difference of +6.
- Denmark, beating Norway at home and drawing Portugal at hoe, also dropping 7 points but with only 3 or 4 plus goals
- Greece, drawing two more games and losing 8 points
- Ireland, dropping 8 points after losing to Russia away but beating Slovakia at home
- Czech Republic, dropping 10-11 points in total after games against Scotland away and Spain at home
- Switzerland, catching up with Montenegro by winning all remaining games including the last game of the group against Montenegro and beating them and encounters between the two, dropping 10 points
- Turkey, dropping 12 points (trusting Azerbaijan to beat Kazakhstan in the first game between them that may trigger European wide interest)
- Serbia, dropping 14 points and just beating Northern Ireland and Slovenia
- Romania or Bosnia in the everyone-beats-everyone group, dropping 14 or so points
The other number twos will enter a play-off against each other, with the four best teams according to the FIFA ranking seeded. That means, today:
Seeded
Denmark (or Portugal or Norway)
Greece (or Croatia)
Switzerland (or Montenegro or England)
Serbia (or Slovenia)
Unseeded
Ireland
Czech Republic (or Scotland)
Turkey (or Belgium, or Austria)
Romania (or Bosnia, Belarus or Romania)
The draws will decide but the seeded teams are more likely to qualify, it seems. Serbia-Bosnia and Greece-Turkey sound like interesting draws.
If Sweden ends up being number 2 but not the best number 2, we are likely to be seeded (as last team) but a lot could change that:
- A team that would be unseeded (such as Turkey) qualifies as best number 2
- France finishes second in their group
- Russia or Slovakia finish second in their group (and Slovakia stays ahead of Sweden in the ranking)
So, a lot of differet scenarios but if you support Sweden here are some other games where you clearly should route for one team over the other:
- Israel-Greece (2 September) and Croatia-Israel (6 September): Cheer for the sons of Israel
- Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan 6 September: cheer for the Azerbaijans against the Caspian rivals from the glorious nation of Kazakhstan. Actually, cheer for Azerbaijan in all their games
- Austria-Turkey, 6 September: Cheer for Austria
- Cheer for whomever is playing Montenegro, at least for the moment (will keep you posted)
- Cheer for whomever is playing the Czech Republic, in particular Scotland on 3 September and Spain on 7 October
- Cheer for whomever is playing Denmark or Norway. Should not be a problem.
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
We don't fly but we may qualify
So. We lived through another unexciting performance from Sweden. If the option is between unexciting and disappointing, as it currently seems to be, I guess this was just about what we could wish for. The inability of the Swedish
But, still, other teams are doing what they should to help Sweden qualify. We should finish second in this weak group, we really should, and we actually have a good chance of qualifying directly as the best runner up of all groups.
With the reservation that no one knows what will happen to Bosnia and hence the entire Group D, this is what seems to be going on:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already.
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done.
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight.
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia.
- defence not to make us nervous (too many free kicks conceded, too many uncontrolled passes from Antonsson who should never again play for Sweden I hope)
- midfield not to control the ball when the Moldovans increased the pressure (it will take not just one but a couple of injuries or suspensions before we see Wernbloom in the starting line-up again; Elm improved things when he came on, good to see)
- attack not to finish better (Zlatan's missed penalty was dreadful, Elmander ran but that was also all that he did)
But, still, other teams are doing what they should to help Sweden qualify. We should finish second in this weak group, we really should, and we actually have a good chance of qualifying directly as the best runner up of all groups.
With the reservation that no one knows what will happen to Bosnia and hence the entire Group D, this is what seems to be going on:
Holland, Spain, Germany and Italy are cruising through their groups. We can give them tickets to Euro 2012 already.
England and France are in good control of their groups although there is a little bit of work still to be done.
Croatia, Portugal and Russia look like the most likely winners in the three groups that remain really tight.
As to runners up, I think Denmark are in the best position to qualify as the best number two. Sweden are not far beyond, but we need to see how Sweden behave in games away against the slightly worse teams before we can take anything for granted. The other number twos will lose more points I believe and thus haev to qualify throw play-off against each other: Greece, Ireland, Czech Republic, Montenegro, Belgium, Bosnia (unless they are banned) and Slovenia.
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